NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	98		Excitement	9.9 [76]		MVP	James Posey (MIA): +85.8%
Memphis Grizzlies	97		Comeback	13.1 [105]		LVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): -20.7%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
James Posey	0.86	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.86	0.03	0.83	0.00	4	75%	0.88	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jason Williams	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.09	0.02	0.01	7	72%	0.10	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Dorell Wright	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.07	0.00	0.02	9	70%	0.07	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Jason Kapono	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.01	-0.01	7	67%	0.08	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.02
Antoine Walker	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.03	-0.02	0.01	13	60%	0.08	3	-0.08	4	50%	-0.02
Michael Doleac	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	1	50%	0.01	2	-0.08	6	33%	-0.05
Udonis Haslem	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.16,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17	-0.02	-0.14	0.01	8	45%	-0.09	1	-0.08	6	67%	-0.06
Dwyane Wade	-0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.01,-0.07,-0.06,-0.08,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.15,-0.21	-0.06	-0.16	-0.01	18	50%	-0.06	5	-0.15	10	70%	0.01

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chucky Atkins	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.51,0.51	0.51	0.09	0.45	0.03	11	67%	0.53	1	-0.02	5	80%	0.00
Mike Miller	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.07	0.03	-0.01	13	63%	0.18	3	-0.06	9	78%	0.01
Dahntay Jones	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0,0	0.00	0.02	-0.01	0.00	9	55%	0.04	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Stromile Swift	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	6	46%	0.01	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.02
Brian Cardinal	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hakim Warrick	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.02	-0.02	0.03	13	59%	0.08	3	-0.11	3	100%	0.03
Lawrence Roberts	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rudy Gay	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,-0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05	-0.05	0.03	-0.07	0.01	16	54%	0.00	2	-0.05	5	60%	-0.09
Jake Tsakalidis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	-0.01	5	20%	-0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.5	2.6	36.0	15.6	27.6	2.6	41.1	149.1
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +25.8%

MIA +6.8%

MIA +15.9%

MEM -0.7%

MIA +2.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	MEM	NBA	MIA	MEM	NBA
this game	14.8	17.4	15.4	108.9	109.0	104.5
season	16.0	15.1		102.4	105.1
opponent	15.1	15.6		110.1	104.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	14.1	14.3	15.3	15.6	14.8
MEM	17.2	17.8	19.0	15.7	17.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Kapono	43	43	1.03	-0.53	1.57	0.83	7	-6	13	15.0	14.7	0.27	18.4	16.5	1.92
Jason Williams	71	70	0.76	-0.26	1.02	0.44	11	-10	21	14.3	16.7	-2.44	17.6	16.7	0.89
Alonzo Mourning	51	51	0.57	-0.07	0.65	0.57	0	1	-1	14.8	14.8	0.03	17.5	17.3	0.16
Dwyane Wade	50	50	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.42	0	1	-1	15.1	14.5	0.61	16.5	18.5	-2.06
James Posey	53	51	0.27	0.23	0.05	0.45	-6	7	-13	14.8	14.9	-0.14	16.4	18.8	-2.41
Antoine Walker	49	47	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.04	6	-5	11	14.5	15.2	-0.75	18.7	16.0	2.71
Udonis Haslem	47	50	-0.16	0.66	-0.81	-0.21	2	-1	3	15.4	14.1	1.33	17.2	17.6	-0.37
Michael Doleac	26	24	-0.18	0.68	-0.85	-0.03	-5	6	-11	16.1	14.3	1.78	17.1	17.5	-0.35
Dorell Wright	60	59	-0.45	0.95	-1.40	-0.16	-10	11	-21	14.4	15.7	-1.33	17.3	17.6	-0.38

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Lawrence Roberts	43	41	0.07	-0.57	0.63	-0.14	7	-8	15	18.0	16.8	1.15	14.6	15.0	-0.41
Jake Tsakalidis	25	28	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.08	1	-2	3	18.6	16.9	1.69	15.4	14.6	0.79
Hakim Warrick	49	50	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	0.05	-4	3	-7	17.3	17.5	-0.21	15.0	14.5	0.52
Rudy Gay	58	60	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	-0.56	16	-17	33	16.6	18.8	-2.24	14.9	14.5	0.42
Brian Cardinal	6	7	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	0.04	-7	6	-13	17.7	17.4	0.31	13.1	15.0	-1.81
Stromile Swift	44	43	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.36	-1	0	-1	16.7	18.1	-1.38	15.2	14.4	0.76
Mike Miller	76	77	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.66	9	-10	19	17.3	17.9	-0.63	15.2	12.6	2.57
Chucky Atkins	77	78	-0.60	0.10	-0.71	-0.49	-4	3	-7	17.7	15.5	2.18	14.5	16.8	-2.33
Dahntay Jones	67	66	-0.82	0.32	-1.14	-0.18	-22	21	-43	17.5	17.0	0.45	14.3	16.3	-2.02

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.46,0.41,0.4,0.36,0.33,0.35,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.4,0.42,0.31,0.23,0.19,0.11,0.09,0.1,0.13,0.21,0.25,0.25,0.19,0.26,0.39,0.33,0.33,0.26,0.22,0.14,0.2,0.14,0.18,0.3,0.22,0.28,0.33,0.42,0.53,0.59,0.4,0.31,0.37,0.24,0.74,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 104, GSW 101	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.35,0.37,0.29,0.3,0.32,0.3,0.29,0.27,0.35,0.28,0.2,0.15,0.16,0.18,0.21,0.27,0.3,0.34,0.34,0.3,0.27,0.3,0.21,0.17,0.21,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.22,0.3,0.38,0.38,0.32,0.26,0.29,0.27,0.31,0.28,0.47,0.58,0	90.1%
CHA 93, MIN 92	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.41,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.38,0.34,0.28,0.31,0.27,0.25,0.22,0.22,0.2,0.13,0.12,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.09,0.11,0.16,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.19,0.21,0.26,0.2,0.18,0.13,0.09,0.06,0.13,0.1,0.18,0.2,0.23,0.31,0.47,0.39,0.38,0.28,0.23,0.73,0	90.0%
NYK 100, CHA 98	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.41,0.43,0.45,0.44,0.41,0.45,0.49,0.53,0.47,0.53,0.46,0.47,0.45,0.36,0.31,0.3,0.35,0.27,0.29,0.28,0.23,0.26,0.25,0.24,0.27,0.3,0.27,0.3,0.21,0.22,0.22,0.13,0.17,0.12,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.32,0.36,0.35,0.39,0.47,0.37,0.22,0.58,0	89.6%