NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Charlotte Bobcats	93		Excitement	7.6 [280]		MVP	Nazr Mohammed (CHA): +38.1%
Minnesota Timberwolves	92		Comeback	10.2 [90]		LVP	Gerald Wallace (CHA): -22.8%

Charlotte Bobcats
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nazr Mohammed	0.38	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.01,0.38	0.08	0.32	0.02	14	66%	0.48	2	-0.10	4	75%	-0.00
D.J. Augustin	0.01	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.01	-0.00	11	52%	0.02	1	-0.01	1	100%	0.00
Acie Law	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tyson Chandler	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Stephen Jackson	-0.04	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.1,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.15,0.18,0.19,0.2,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.09,-0.04,-0.04	0.11	-0.14	0.01	21	65%	0.15	4	-0.19	9	56%	-0.03
Ronald Murray	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.03	5	30%	-0.00	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Boris Diaw	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.1	0.02	-0.12	-0.01	12	62%	-0.01	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Gerald Wallace	-0.23	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23	-0.13	-0.11	-0.01	9	23%	-0.16	2	-0.07	4	75%	-0.01

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Al Jefferson	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.03	0.02	17	51%	0.06	1	-0.02	3	33%	-0.03
Ramon Sessions	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.04	0.02	11	57%	0.09	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.00
Sasha Pavlovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	5	70%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Gomes	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.01,0.02,0.08,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0	0.00	0.03	-0.03	-0.01	13	58%	0.05	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Love	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	-0.00	0.02	7	50%	0.00	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Damien Wilkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Ryan Hollins	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	4	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jonny Flynn	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.01	10	45%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Wayne Ellington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.08,0.08,0.16,-0.1	-0.10	0.08	-0.16	0.02	10	65%	-0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Corey Brewer	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.06	-0.05	0.00	7	36%	-0.08	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.1	2.5	28.8	15.4	24.8	2.6	29.5	126.7
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHA +44.3%

CHA +4.1%

CHA +33.0%

MIN -37.4%

CHA +6.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHA	MIN	NBA	CHA	MIN	NBA
this game	16.6	16.5	15.3	106.9	105.7	106.0
season	16.2	14.7		103.0	100.1
opponent	14.8	15.4		109.8	101.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHA	17.1	16.4	15.4	17.6	16.6
MIN	16.4	15.5	18.2	16.0	16.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Charlotte Bobcats
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nazr Mohammed	74	74	0.70	-0.20	0.91	0.32	13	-12	25	16.4	17.8	-1.38	16.1	18.8	-2.66
Boris Diaw	66	67	0.64	-0.14	0.77	0.52	4	-3	7	17.1	15.1	1.92	16.2	17.6	-1.42
Gerald Wallace	75	76	0.43	0.07	0.37	0.46	-1	2	-3	16.9	14.7	2.14	16.7	15.2	1.52
Stephen Jackson	80	80	0.41	0.09	0.33	0.50	-3	4	-7	16.7	15.0	1.74	16.6	15.4	1.17
Acie Law	9	10	0.11	0.39	-0.28	-0.04	5	-4	9	15.8	16.7	-0.91	15.1	16.7	-1.59
D.J. Augustin	76	74	0.11	0.39	-0.29	0.22	-4	5	-9	16.6	16.4	0.27	16.6	16.1	0.50
Ronald Murray	33	32	0.09	0.41	-0.33	0.35	-9	10	-19	16.3	16.8	-0.47	16.7	16.4	0.24
Tyson Chandler	22	22	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.01	0	1	-1	15.0	17.1	-2.08	18.0	16.0	2.00

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Damien Wilkins	33	33	0.10	-0.60	0.70	-0.11	7	-8	15	18.2	15.5	2.75	17.2	16.2	0.94
Sasha Pavlovic	16	15	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	-0.06	-1	0	-1	19.1	15.9	3.21	16.0	16.7	-0.72
Wayne Ellington	29	29	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	-0.46	12	-13	25	15.2	17.2	-2.00	18.0	15.9	2.10
Jonny Flynn	40	40	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	0.02	-6	5	-11	16.6	16.4	0.13	16.1	17.0	-0.97
Ryan Hollins	36	34	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.02	-6	5	-11	17.9	15.5	2.45	17.2	16.2	1.05
Ryan Gomes	73	73	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.48	7	-8	15	16.3	17.5	-1.18	16.6	16.8	-0.22
Ramon Sessions	47	47	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.49	5	-6	11	16.4	16.6	-0.13	17.0	16.1	0.97
Kevin Love	44	45	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.04	-12	11	-23	15.6	17.4	-1.80	15.9	17.4	-1.47
Al Jefferson	67	68	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.37	-1	0	-1	16.2	17.5	-1.29	16.3	17.8	-1.52
Corey Brewer	50	51	-0.64	0.14	-0.78	-0.35	-10	9	-19	15.7	17.5	-1.80	16.3	17.0	-0.73

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.41,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.38,0.34,0.28,0.31,0.27,0.25,0.22,0.22,0.2,0.13,0.12,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.09,0.11,0.16,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.19,0.21,0.26,0.2,0.18,0.13,0.09,0.06,0.13,0.1,0.18,0.2,0.23,0.31,0.47,0.39,0.38,0.28,0.23,0.73,0
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 93, POR 88	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.55,0.5,0.46,0.38,0.34,0.37,0.31,0.29,0.3,0.37,0.34,0.34,0.19,0.17,0.2,0.16,0.21,0.16,0.13,0.12,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.3,0.29,0.23,0.22,0.13,0.14,0.13,0.15,0.16,0.18,0.28,0.23,0.36,0.46,0.4,0.25,0.21,0.55,0.42,0	91.4%
MIA 91, MIL 87	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.43,0.36,0.32,0.25,0.26,0.22,0.22,0.24,0.25,0.28,0.29,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.2,0.14,0.17,0.26,0.3,0.26,0.19,0.22,0.27,0.24,0.32,0.29,0.25,0.18,0.16,0.15,0.1,0.15,0.18,0.2,0.27,0.22,0.4,0.34,0.53,0.36,0.32,0.37,0	91.1%
SAC 119, OKC 116	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.46,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.38,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.38,0.35,0.3,0.31,0.26,0.25,0.29,0.18,0.17,0.15,0.16,0.17,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.27,0.33,0.33,0.29,0.25,0.25,0.11,0.06,0.15,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.24,0.23,0.11,0.34,0.53,0.38,0.28,0.17,0.41,0	90.3%