NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	91		Excitement	8.6 [182]		MVP	Dwight Howard (ORL): +25.9%
Portland Trail Blazers	89		Comeback	7.0 [229]		LVP	Juan Dixon (POR): -29.8%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwight Howard	0.26	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26	0.11	0.15	0.00	11	72%	0.28	1	-0.02	3	67%	0.00
Grant Hill	0.21	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.07,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.17,-0.17,0.21	-0.08	0.28	-0.01	11	59%	0.53	7	-0.32	5	80%	0.07
Keyon Dooling	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.06	0.06	-0.00	8	59%	0.12	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Trevor Ariza	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.06	0.04	0.00	5	77%	0.13	1	-0.03	3	67%	-0.01
Hedo Turkoglu	0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.05	0.02	-0.00	10	54%	0.07	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.02
Carlos Arroyo	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.02,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	9	37%	-0.04	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Tony Battie	-0.04	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	5	60%	0.02	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Jameer Nelson	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.11	-0.02	-0.01	4	10%	-0.06	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.02
Darko Milicic	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.06,-0.17,-0.17	-0.03	-0.16	-0.02	12	42%	-0.17	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Travis Outlaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.25,0.25	0.25	0.09	0.16	-0.00	6	81%	0.27	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.04
LaMarcus Aldridge	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.04	0.09	-0.00	8	56%	0.13	0	0.00	2	100%	0.04
Jarrett Jack	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.02	-0.01	9	61%	0.13	3	-0.10	5	100%	0.05
Joel Przybilla	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	0.00	0.01	3	62%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Jamaal Magloire	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.02	-0.00	6	43%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.03
Ime Udoka	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	7	37%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Martell Webster	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	37%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Zach Randolph	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.07,-0.04,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	0.00	-0.16	-0.01	25	46%	-0.00	2	-0.14	11	73%	-0.03
Sergio Rodriguez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.22	-0.22	-0.03	-0.19	0.00	3	33%	-0.13	1	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Juan Dixon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.3	-0.30	-0.13	-0.17	-0.00	8	12%	-0.25	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.3	1.0	25.1	15.6	27.2	1.8	37.7	130.6
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +80.0%

POR -5.5%

POR -20.6%

POR -6.9%

ORL +2.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	POR	NBA	ORL	POR	NBA
this game	15.7	17.6	15.4	105.8	102.3	104.5
season	15.9	16.7		103.4	103.1
opponent	15.4	15.7		108.3	103.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	13.3	15.3	19.4	15.4	15.7
POR	18.0	19.0	15.9	17.3	17.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Trevor Ariza	32	33	0.58	-0.08	0.65	0.40	6	-4	10	17.2	14.8	2.42	16.3	18.3	-2.06
Dwight Howard	75	74	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.41	2	0	2	15.7	16.1	-0.41	17.3	18.8	-1.52
Hedo Turkoglu	54	55	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.43	-2	4	-6	14.8	17.2	-2.42	18.0	16.8	1.22
Jameer Nelson	45	48	0.34	0.16	0.19	0.34	0	2	-2	15.0	16.5	-1.49	18.9	15.9	2.95
Keyon Dooling	30	30	0.31	0.19	0.11	0.16	5	-3	8	16.3	15.4	0.87	15.5	18.6	-3.13
Grant Hill	56	57	0.19	0.31	-0.11	0.28	-3	5	-8	15.4	16.3	-0.87	18.6	15.5	3.13
Carlos Arroyo	41	39	0.16	0.34	-0.19	0.10	2	0	2	16.5	15.0	1.49	15.9	18.9	-2.95
Darko Milicic	49	50	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.10	-2	4	-6	15.4	16.1	-0.66	17.3	17.9	-0.59
Tony Battie	48	49	0.03	0.47	-0.43	-0.02	2	0	2	16.1	15.3	0.84	18.5	16.3	2.19

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Sergio Rodriguez	33	33	0.15	-0.65	0.79	-0.03	6	-8	14	16.6	18.1	-1.47	16.1	15.5	0.63
Zach Randolph	64	64	0.14	-0.64	0.78	-0.00	5	-7	12	18.3	15.3	3.00	16.2	14.4	1.78
Martell Webster	32	30	0.08	-0.58	0.65	-0.01	3	-5	8	18.4	17.0	1.40	16.3	15.4	0.92
Joel Przybilla	31	28	0.04	-0.54	0.57	0.01	1	-3	4	17.5	17.6	-0.06	17.1	15.1	1.99
LaMarcus Aldridge	48	45	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.23	-1	-1	0	18.3	16.7	1.60	14.8	16.8	-1.96
Jarrett Jack	66	66	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.32	-2	0	-2	18.3	15.1	3.24	15.5	16.5	-1.00
Travis Outlaw	51	49	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.23	-5	3	-8	17.5	17.6	-0.05	15.2	16.4	-1.23
Juan Dixon	38	39	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.29	-7	5	-12	16.6	18.3	-1.68	15.2	16.1	-0.92
Ime Udoka	41	42	-0.63	0.13	-0.76	-0.60	-1	-1	0	17.2	17.8	-0.58	16.1	15.4	0.71
Jamaal Magloire	31	34	-0.75	0.25	-1.00	-0.49	-9	7	-16	14.8	19.1	-4.21	15.4	15.9	-0.48

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.47,0.44,0.45,0.47,0.43,0.43,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.36,0.41,0.39,0.27,0.3,0.37,0.37,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.42,0.38,0.34,0.44,0.4,0.44,0.3,0.38,0.3,0.2,0.19,0.13,0.19,0.22,0.38,0.36,0.57,0.73,0
Game		Similarity Score
POR 80, HOU 79	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.45,0.44,0.42,0.39,0.41,0.41,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.5,0.44,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.46,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.44,0.43,0.41,0.33,0.31,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.35,0.28,0.34,0.41,0.44,0.36,0.3,0.3,0.34,0.33,0.33,0.26,0.24,0.34,0.47,0.37,0.55,0.58,0	92.6%
LAL 95, OKC 94	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.37,0.36,0.39,0.39,0.4,0.47,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.47,0.39,0.44,0.41,0.41,0.42,0.42,0.33,0.33,0.4,0.37,0.36,0.42,0.45,0.52,0.41,0.38,0.37,0.26,0.36,0.38,0.26,0.33,0.24,0.23,0.17,0.15,0.13,0.21,0.54,0.68,0.58,0	92.5%
WAS 108, SEA 106	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.41,0.35,0.36,0.38,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.37,0.36,0.34,0.44,0.51,0.41,0.42,0.41,0.28,0.36,0.27,0.42,0.52,0.41,0.45,0.44,0.52,0.4,0.46,0.43,0.29,0.24,0.27,0.18,0.15,0.33,0.39,0.21,0.35,0.58,0	92.3%