NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Washington Wizards	82		Excitement	7.6 [337]		MVP	Vassilis Spanoulis (HOU): +11.8%
Houston Rockets	86		Comeback	1.0 [1016]		LVP	DeShawn Stevenson (WAS): -19.6%

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Etan Thomas	0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.01	7	47%	0.03	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Antonio Daniels	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.06	-0.03	0.01	7	58%	0.02	0	0.00	5	100%	0.02
Jarvis Hayes	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	5	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Brendan Haywood	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.01	-0.04	0.00	5	47%	-0.03	0	0.00	9	33%	-0.15
Gilbert Arenas	-0.05	0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.24,-0.19,-0.05	-0.01	-0.05	-0.01	26	44%	0.00	1	-0.05	7	86%	0.03
Antawn Jamison	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11	-0.04	-0.07	-0.00	13	38%	-0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Caron Butler	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.12,-0.12	-0.11	-0.02	-0.01	14	44%	0.01	5	-0.12	4	100%	0.05
DeShawn Stevenson	-0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.17	-0.04	-0.01	7	0%	-0.11	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Vassilis Spanoulis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.09	0.03	-0.00	6	83%	0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Yao Ming	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.11,0.11,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.04	0.07	-0.01	16	62%	0.28	4	-0.16	8	87%	0.04
Luther Head	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,0.03,0.1,0.09	0.09	-0.03	0.13	0.01	8	52%	0.20	4	-0.11	7	86%	0.05
Rafer Alston	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,0	0.00	-0.03	0.03	-0.00	16	37%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Charles Hayes	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	5	60%	0.04	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Dikembe Mutombo	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Juwan Howard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.07	-0.03	0.00	5	40%	-0.02	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Shane Battier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.08	-0.05	-0.01	7	29%	-0.07	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Tracy McGrady	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.07	-0.08	-0.01	12	46%	-0.02	5	-0.12	4	25%	-0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.4	2.4	26.5	14.7	24.0	1.8	36.0	127.8
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +63.6%

HOU +4.5%

HOU +14.4%

WAS -31.5%

WAS -1.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	WAS	HOU	NBA	WAS	HOU	NBA
this game	14.5	16.3	15.4	88.2	91.5	104.5
season	14.8	15.6		107.8	103.6
opponent	15.7	15.3		99.2	108.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
WAS	16.0	15.9	15.3	11.3	14.5
HOU	15.3	16.1	16.0	17.5	16.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
DeShawn Stevenson	38	36	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	0.01	-4	0	-4	15.5	13.9	1.58	15.5	16.7	-1.18
Etan Thomas	30	30	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	0.05	-8	4	-12	16.0	13.8	2.16	15.0	16.8	-1.84
Jarvis Hayes	29	32	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.09	-4	0	-4	15.0	14.3	0.62	17.0	15.9	1.18
Brendan Haywood	63	64	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.43	4	-8	12	13.8	16.0	-2.16	16.8	15.0	1.84
Antonio Daniels	60	62	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.42	3	-7	10	14.0	15.6	-1.61	17.0	14.8	2.19
Gilbert Arenas	83	84	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.39	2	-6	8	14.6	14.2	0.38	15.9	19.5	-3.63
Antawn Jamison	86	87	-0.51	0.01	-0.51	-0.36	-5	1	-6	14.5	15.3	-0.81	16.4	14.3	2.13
Caron Butler	76	75	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.28	-8	4	-12	14.4	15.2	-0.85	15.9	17.6	-1.72

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rafer Alston	65	65	0.64	-0.14	0.77	0.31	11	-7	18	16.1	16.6	-0.53	14.3	15.1	-0.81
Tracy McGrady	80	80	0.58	-0.08	0.65	0.25	11	-7	18	15.4	21.3	-5.91	14.4	15.4	-0.98
Yao Ming	71	72	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.29	3	1	2	16.3	16.0	0.34	14.3	15.3	-0.97
Luther Head	49	47	0.29	0.21	0.09	0.35	-2	6	-8	16.5	16.0	0.49	14.0	15.1	-1.13
Shane Battier	73	74	0.24	0.26	-0.01	0.45	-7	11	-18	16.4	15.7	0.70	14.3	15.4	-1.11
Vassilis Spanoulis	33	31	0.18	0.32	-0.15	0.06	4	0	4	17.6	15.5	2.03	15.2	14.2	0.98
Dikembe Mutombo	23	21	0.13	0.37	-0.25	0.10	1	3	-2	16.0	16.3	-0.34	15.3	14.3	0.97
Juwan Howard	42	40	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.04	0	4	-4	17.7	15.1	2.68	14.5	14.5	-0.02
Charles Hayes	34	35	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.07	-1	5	-6	14.9	17.0	-2.20	16.0	13.7	2.30

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.53,0.57,0.56,0.59,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.55,0.58,0.66,0.72,0.72,0.75,0.79,0.71,0.74,0.67,0.66,0.72,0.69,0.75,0.82,0.81,0.74,0.72,0.76,0.76,0.77,0.88,0.92,0.88,0.84,0.85,0.87,0.87,0.9,0.92,0.85,0.79,0.76,0.61,0.62,0.54,0.89,0.92,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 97, UTA 101	0.5,0.51,0.56,0.55,0.5,0.53,0.58,0.57,0.59,0.57,0.57,0.55,0.6,0.68,0.68,0.64,0.69,0.69,0.76,0.76,0.75,0.71,0.76,0.75,0.73,0.7,0.66,0.77,0.75,0.76,0.79,0.82,0.9,0.89,0.91,0.89,0.85,0.87,0.84,0.91,0.8,0.81,0.83,0.76,0.6,0.53,0.54,0.67,0.73,1	93.6%
LAC 100, NJN 101	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.6,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.56,0.63,0.66,0.7,0.69,0.67,0.71,0.76,0.71,0.73,0.61,0.67,0.7,0.82,0.79,0.82,0.8,0.78,0.88,0.95,0.93,0.94,0.94,0.95,0.83,0.85,0.74,0.82,0.8,0.77,0.79,0.76,0.67,0.62,0.71,0.84,0.83,1	93.2%
TOR 106, IND 110	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.57,0.6,0.68,0.66,0.74,0.73,0.64,0.71,0.69,0.76,0.71,0.69,0.75,0.7,0.75,0.82,0.77,0.77,0.67,0.73,0.81,0.89,0.83,0.82,0.83,0.84,0.82,0.85,0.87,0.9,0.8,0.77,0.69,0.8,0.73,0.56,0.85,0.77,0.85,1	92.9%