NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	88		Excitement	7.2 [399]		MVP	Mo Williams (MIL): +23.3%
Indiana Pacers	93		Comeback	83.0 [25]		LVP	Michael Redd (MIL): -31.1%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mo Williams	0.23	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.27,0.27,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.23	0.16	0.08	0.00	12	73%	0.23	0	0.00	6	100%	0.06
Charlie Bell	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	5	69%	0.09	2	-0.06	3	100%	0.02
Andrew Bogut	0.01	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.04	0.02	-0.03	14	50%	0.05	3	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
David Noel	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ruben Patterson	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	0.00	5	60%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Steve Blake	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Brian Skinner	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	0.00	3	0%	-0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dan Gadzuric	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.08	-0.01	-0.10	-0.02	13	45%	-0.04	1	-0.04	3	100%	0.02
Ersan Ilyasova	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15	-0.11	-0.06	-0.02	8	19%	-0.10	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Michael Redd	-0.31	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.09,-0.15,-0.31	-0.12	-0.21	-0.02	24	42%	-0.16	5	-0.15	2	100%	0.01

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jermaine O'Neal	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.13	0.05	0.01	14	74%	0.22	3	-0.06	7	86%	0.01
Jamaal Tinsley	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.05,-0.07,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.13	0.13	-0.00	0.15	0.02	12	61%	0.24	4	-0.12	4	75%	0.01
Darrell Armstrong	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.09	0.09	0.03	0.05	-0.01	3	62%	0.09	0	0.00	2	100%	0.05
Jeff Foster	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Stephen Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.03	0.06	-0.00	11	40%	0.06	1	-0.02	3	67%	0.00
Sarunas Jasikevicius	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	9	53%	-0.01	2	-0.04	1	0%	-0.02
Marquis Daniels	0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	0.01	3	44%	-0.03	2	-0.04	3	67%	-0.01
Al Harrington	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.13	-0.03	-0.01	11	29%	-0.07	3	-0.09	2	50%	-0.01
Danny Granger	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.19,-0.21,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.12	-0.07	-0.00	14	36%	-0.03	4	-0.16	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.5	1.7	27.4	15.5	25.5	2.4	37.7	134.7
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

IND +57.8%

MIL -6.6%

IND +14.0%

MIL -16.8%

IND +1.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	IND	NBA	MIL	IND	NBA
this game	15.1	15.2	15.4	92.6	97.9	104.5
season	15.2	15.3		105.3	101.3
opponent	15.3	15.5		103.9	109.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	13.8	14.8	17.0	15.0	15.1
IND	13.8	16.5	15.7	15.0	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brian Skinner	25	23	0.08	-0.58	0.66	0.20	-4	-1	-3	14.8	15.2	-0.39	16.2	14.9	1.30
David Noel	1	1	0.04	-0.54	0.59	0.04	0	-5	5	10.0	15.1	-5.14	24.0	15.1	8.86
Steve Blake	23	24	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	0.09	-4	-1	-3	15.3	15.0	0.23	14.6	15.5	-0.87
Dan Gadzuric	53	54	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	-0.03	0	-5	5	15.6	14.4	1.22	15.8	14.5	1.35
Ruben Patterson	43	42	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.03	0	-5	5	15.0	15.2	-0.20	15.7	14.8	0.91
Michael Redd	88	88	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.47	2	-7	9	15.0	15.6	-0.53	15.2	15.9	-0.68
Mo Williams	72	73	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.48	1	-6	7	15.0	15.3	-0.23	15.0	15.9	-0.82
Charlie Bell	62	60	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.34	-4	-1	-3	15.2	14.8	0.45	15.3	15.1	0.19
Ersan Ilyasova	43	44	-0.62	0.12	-0.73	-0.23	-13	8	-21	14.5	15.6	-1.13	14.2	16.1	-1.96
Andrew Bogut	65	66	-0.62	0.12	-0.74	-0.53	-3	-2	-1	15.2	14.8	0.42	15.1	15.5	-0.41

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Danny Granger	71	74	0.74	-0.24	0.98	0.45	10	-5	15	15.3	15.1	0.20	15.7	13.0	2.68
Jamaal Tinsley	65	66	0.73	-0.23	0.96	0.52	7	-2	9	14.9	16.0	-1.12	15.2	14.8	0.37
Jermaine O'Neal	76	77	0.72	-0.22	0.94	0.51	7	-2	9	14.9	16.5	-1.62	15.2	14.7	0.52
Marquis Daniels	45	44	0.68	-0.18	0.87	0.36	11	-6	17	14.5	15.9	-1.45	15.5	14.7	0.77
Stephen Jackson	65	65	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.38	1	4	-3	15.2	15.3	-0.05	14.7	15.9	-1.24
Darrell Armstrong	19	19	-0.11	0.61	-0.73	-0.14	1	4	-3	16.1	15.0	1.09	12.5	15.7	-3.20
Jeff Foster	41	39	-0.13	0.63	-0.75	0.05	-6	11	-17	14.9	15.5	-0.62	15.0	15.1	-0.14
Sarunas Jasikevicius	28	26	-0.18	0.68	-0.86	-0.12	-2	7	-9	16.0	14.9	1.04	15.2	15.0	0.20
Al Harrington	65	65	-0.36	0.86	-1.22	-0.24	-4	9	-13	16.1	13.3	2.77	15.0	15.2	-0.17

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.44,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.4,0.35,0.4,0.4,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.59,0.46,0.49,0.41,0.5,0.55,0.63,0.61,0.73,0.81,0.71,0.62,0.65,0.73,0.56,0.56,0.38,0.26,0.21,0.18,0.23,0.31,0.19,0.1,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.27,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 108, DEN 109	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.44,0.45,0.41,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.51,0.44,0.46,0.52,0.44,0.42,0.41,0.46,0.5,0.57,0.57,0.61,0.61,0.64,0.65,0.59,0.55,0.48,0.47,0.56,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.2,0.15,0.21,0.2,0.1,0.03,0.1,0.06,0.04,1	91.5%
IND 117, WAS 119	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.38,0.3,0.31,0.3,0.31,0.29,0.34,0.34,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.54,0.61,0.67,0.67,0.58,0.52,0.59,0.54,0.52,0.48,0.42,0.34,0.38,0.2,0.23,0.17,0.19,0.13,0.14,0.22,0.14,0.15,1	90.3%
DET 85, TOR 89	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.55,0.57,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.54,0.53,0.62,0.56,0.6,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.61,0.67,0.64,0.54,0.62,0.72,0.7,0.67,0.73,0.77,0.65,0.66,0.64,0.63,0.55,0.38,0.3,0.18,0.25,0.23,0.21,0.15,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.23,0.59,1	89.5%