NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Orleans/Oklahoma City Hornets	100		Excitement	8.7 [175]		MVP	Chauncey Billups (DET): +53.1%
Detroit Pistons	99		Comeback	3.3 [242]		LVP	Desmond Mason (NOK): -30.6%

New Orleans/Oklahoma City Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Paul	0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,0.01,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.07,0.07,0.22	0.09	0.14	0.01	14	59%	0.22	0	0.00	6	100%	0.10
Hilton Armstrong	0.16	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,-0.01,0.16	0.08	0.09	0.01	11	63%	0.20	1	-0.04	5	60%	-0.05
Rasual Butler	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.03	0.10	0.00	4	62%	0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Peja Stojakovic	0.10	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1	0.01	0.09	-0.00	13	50%	0.12	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.05
Bobby Jackson	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.04	0.04	-0.00	7	55%	0.08	0	0.00	6	83%	0.00
Jannero Pargo	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.01	-0.00	5	60%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Linton Johnson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.00	5	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cedric Simmons	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	6	50%	0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Bass	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.00	-0.03	0.01	10	50%	-0.00	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.04
Desmond Mason	-0.31	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.17,-0.25,-0.31,-0.31,-0.31,-0.31,-0.31	-0.14	-0.18	-0.01	11	18%	-0.17	2	-0.14	0	0%	0.00

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chauncey Billups	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.09,0.19,0.31,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.37,0.37,0.53	0.53	0.16	0.37	-0.00	17	69%	0.56	1	-0.03	8	87%	0.09
Richard Hamilton	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.07	0.05	0.00	14	64%	0.19	3	-0.07	8	87%	0.02
Tayshaun Prince	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.04	0.04	0.00	13	59%	0.10	1	-0.03	1	0%	-0.02
Rasheed Wallace	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.28,0.17,0.03	0.03	0.07	-0.04	-0.00	11	56%	0.03	0	0.00	3	67%	0.02
Antonio McDyess	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.00	4	75%	0.05	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Delfino	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Maxiell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Nazr Mohammed	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	0.01	4	60%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.05
Lindsey Hunter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.04	-0.08	-0.00	5	20%	-0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ronald Murray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.05	-0.11	0.00	4	30%	-0.13	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.9	2.5	31.3	19.4	23.6	2.7	31.5	136.9
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET -31.8%

NOK +32.5%

NOK +56.4%

DET -8.9%

NOK +1.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NOK	DET	NBA	NOK	DET	NBA
this game	18.5	15.6	15.4	117.6	117.9	104.5
season	16.0	16.8		102.8	106.1
opponent	15.7	15.3		101.7	104.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NOK	20.2	15.8	18.9	19.5	18.5
DET	15.8	14.8	15.4	16.5	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Orleans/Oklahoma City Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Peja Stojakovic	62	63	0.82	-0.32	1.13	0.67	5	-4	9	17.9	20.2	-2.32	15.9	14.8	1.10
Bobby Jackson	40	39	0.56	-0.06	0.61	0.44	4	-3	7	18.3	18.6	-0.30	16.7	14.6	2.07
Rasual Butler	24	21	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.40	5	-4	9	17.3	18.9	-1.60	15.3	15.7	-0.33
Chris Paul	64	64	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.58	-4	5	-9	19.0	16.8	2.22	15.5	15.7	-0.22
Hilton Armstrong	54	53	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.36	-2	3	-5	18.4	18.6	-0.26	14.9	16.7	-1.84
Linton Johnson	26	25	0.23	0.27	-0.03	-0.00	8	-7	15	17.0	19.2	-2.19	16.8	15.1	1.68
Cedric Simmons	31	31	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.11	3	-2	5	18.6	18.4	0.26	16.7	14.9	1.84
Jannero Pargo	23	22	0.07	0.43	-0.36	-0.07	5	-4	9	16.7	19.1	-2.39	16.0	15.4	0.63
Brandon Bass	51	52	-0.34	0.84	-1.18	-0.08	-9	10	-19	19.2	17.4	1.78	14.4	17.5	-3.05
Desmond Mason	50	50	-0.35	0.85	-1.19	-0.05	-10	11	-21	20.1	16.2	3.93	15.0	16.5	-1.54

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nazr Mohammed	49	48	0.34	-0.84	1.18	-0.01	12	-13	25	14.8	16.7	-1.99	19.0	17.8	1.19
Carlos Delfino	17	20	0.04	-0.54	0.59	0.16	-4	3	-7	14.6	15.8	-1.25	15.3	19.4	-4.10
Ronald Murray	29	29	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	0.04	-5	4	-9	16.1	15.3	0.79	17.1	19.2	-2.09
Jason Maxiell	12	13	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	0.08	-10	9	-19	15.2	15.7	-0.49	15.2	19.1	-3.84
Chauncey Billups	68	66	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.43	4	-5	9	15.4	16.2	-0.75	19.5	14.8	4.69
Rasheed Wallace	72	71	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.50	6	-7	13	15.3	17.5	-2.24	18.9	16.2	2.72
Antonio McDyess	26	29	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.04	-10	9	-19	17.3	14.8	2.50	17.5	19.0	-1.46
Richard Hamilton	63	63	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.55	2	-3	5	15.4	16.0	-0.56	19.3	16.1	3.17
Tayshaun Prince	64	62	-0.55	0.05	-0.59	-0.66	4	-5	9	16.1	14.0	2.01	19.5	15.7	3.76
Lindsey Hunter	20	24	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.43	-4	3	-7	16.2	15.4	0.87	15.7	19.6	-3.92

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.42,0.46,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.43,0.36,0.38,0.36,0.35,0.27,0.23,0.21,0.17,0.18,0.17,0.18,0.2,0.21,0.21,0.25,0.27,0.3,0.37,0.38,0.38,0.41,0.4,0.52,0.3,0.26,0.19,0.29,0.47,0.64,0.55,0.61,0.68,0.37,0.68,0.58,0
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 82, LAC 79	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.47,0.43,0.35,0.32,0.34,0.34,0.32,0.32,0.29,0.31,0.28,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.19,0.25,0.18,0.24,0.34,0.36,0.39,0.45,0.45,0.32,0.31,0.44,0.4,0.36,0.42,0.43,0.43,0.48,0.53,0.47,0.71,0.72,0.68,0.66,0.57,0.42,0	89.9%
OKC 97, ORL 89	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.47,0.5,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.4,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.38,0.34,0.33,0.28,0.28,0.34,0.24,0.21,0.13,0.14,0.16,0.23,0.37,0.3,0.31,0.42,0.26,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.33,0.36,0.34,0.31,0.29,0.38,0.42,0.47,0.4,0.39,0.47,0.52,0.34,0.27,0	89.4%
BKN 112, DEN 110	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.38,0.39,0.34,0.32,0.33,0.35,0.31,0.37,0.32,0.3,0.26,0.24,0.19,0.25,0.24,0.25,0.25,0.22,0.26,0.28,0.39,0.27,0.23,0.23,0.2,0.27,0.42,0.45,0.52,0.44,0.48,0.56,0.52,0.26,0.34,0.25,0.47,0.42,0.64,0.46,0.53,0.62,0.28,0.43,0.92,0	88.9%