NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Oklahoma City Thunder	97		Excitement	8.3 [205]		MVP	Kevin Durant (OKC): +23.0%
Orlando Magic	89		Comeback	1.4 [1061]		LVP	Tobias Harris (ORL): -33.6%

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Durant	0.23	0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.15,0.14,0.23	0.03	0.22	0.02	14	64%	0.38	5	-0.15	11	82%	-0.01
Kevin Martin	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.2,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.08	0.05	-0.03	10	68%	0.20	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Nick Collison	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.08	0.06	0.00	5	73%	0.14	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.02
DeAndre Liggins	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Jackson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	3	33%	0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Serge Ibaka	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05	0.00	-0.05	0.00	11	50%	-0.01	1	-0.03	6	67%	-0.01
Derek Fisher	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kendrick Perkins	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09	-0.00	-0.09	0.00	7	43%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Russell Westbrook	-0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.21,0.14,0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.04	-0.08	0.00	17	46%	-0.00	3	-0.12	7	71%	-0.00
Thabo Sefolosha	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.09	-0.08	-0.01	9	25%	-0.15	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Maurice Harkless	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.12,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.21,0.26,0.26,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.24,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.13	0.04	-0.01	18	68%	0.21	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Doron Lamb	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.03	0.00	1	100%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Beno Udrih	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.00	10	57%	0.08	2	-0.07	3	67%	0.00
DeQuan Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyle O'Quinn	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.06	0.04	-0.00	11	46%	0.05	3	-0.07	2	50%	-0.03
E'Twaun Moore	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	4	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Arron Afflalo	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	0.01	6	50%	0.00	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Nicholson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	0.00	-0.01	7	29%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jameer Nelson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.06,-0.07	-0.07	0.00	-0.07	0.00	17	47%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tobias Harris	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.12,-0.12,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.34	-0.34	-0.18	-0.17	-0.02	17	26%	-0.22	3	-0.12	4	100%	0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.9	2.3	27.3	15.8	26.3	2.4	35.6	133.6
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

OKC +19.0%

OKC +14.0%

OKC +16.2%

ORL -2.8%

OKC +3.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	OKC	ORL	NBA	OKC	ORL	NBA
this game	15.2	14.1	15.4	99.0	89.9	104.1
season	14.8	15.5		109.3	100.3
opponent	15.3	15.5		107.7	100.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
OKC	14.4	14.8	17.1	14.7	15.2
ORL	14.4	14.0	15.0	13.0	14.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Serge Ibaka	74	75	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.23	8	0	8	15.2	15.2	-0.05	13.9	14.5	-0.51
Russell Westbrook	73	73	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.23	7	1	6	15.0	15.8	-0.84	13.5	15.5	-1.99
Kevin Durant	83	83	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.38	1	7	-6	15.4	13.9	1.54	14.0	14.6	-0.66
Kevin Martin	50	52	0.38	0.12	0.27	-0.09	16	-8	24	14.8	15.5	-0.68	15.0	13.0	1.96
Kendrick Perkins	55	54	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.28	0	8	-8	15.4	14.9	0.52	13.4	14.9	-1.54
Nick Collison	38	39	0.25	0.25	-0.00	0.02	8	0	8	14.4	15.6	-1.19	14.9	13.5	1.45
Thabo Sefolosha	58	58	0.24	0.26	-0.03	0.27	-1	9	-10	15.1	15.3	-0.30	13.3	15.1	-1.84
Reggie Jackson	27	29	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.00	3	5	-2	16.5	14.7	1.81	15.2	13.6	1.66
Derek Fisher	24	24	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.03	0	8	-8	15.2	15.2	0.05	14.5	13.9	0.51
DeAndre Liggins	8	8	-0.08	0.58	-0.67	-0.03	-2	10	-12	15.1	15.2	-0.05	15.6	13.9	1.69

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
E'Twaun Moore	23	20	0.16	-0.66	0.82	0.01	5	-13	18	14.9	13.8	1.10	15.0	15.2	-0.22
Doron Lamb	4	3	0.04	-0.54	0.58	0.07	-1	-7	6	12.7	14.1	-1.38	12.0	15.3	-3.27
DeQuan Jones	6	5	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	0.07	-4	-4	0	12.8	14.2	-1.32	16.6	15.1	1.50
Arron Afflalo	27	27	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	0.05	-5	-3	-2	15.0	13.7	1.23	13.2	15.9	-2.69
Kyle O'Quinn	56	57	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.39	8	-16	24	13.4	14.9	-1.48	14.9	15.5	-0.54
Andrew Nicholson	42	41	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	0.06	-14	6	-20	15.0	13.4	1.61	15.5	14.9	0.54
Beno Udrih	74	73	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.31	-5	-3	-2	13.8	15.0	-1.19	15.8	13.5	2.27
Tobias Harris	88	89	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.25	-8	0	-8	14.3	12.5	1.82	15.0	17.1	-2.13
Jameer Nelson	83	84	-0.55	0.05	-0.61	-0.35	-7	-1	-6	13.9	14.9	-0.96	15.4	14.0	1.37
Maurice Harkless	92	91	-0.56	0.06	-0.63	-0.30	-9	1	-10	13.9	16.4	-2.54	15.4	12.7	2.65

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.47,0.5,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.4,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.38,0.34,0.33,0.28,0.28,0.34,0.24,0.21,0.13,0.14,0.16,0.23,0.37,0.3,0.31,0.42,0.26,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.33,0.36,0.34,0.31,0.29,0.38,0.42,0.47,0.4,0.39,0.47,0.52,0.34,0.27,0
Game		Similarity Score
POR 82, LAC 80	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.48,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.49,0.43,0.42,0.34,0.28,0.26,0.26,0.21,0.21,0.2,0.22,0.23,0.25,0.18,0.21,0.27,0.16,0.23,0.25,0.31,0.33,0.33,0.38,0.41,0.35,0.41,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.43,0.48,0.52,0.37,0.47,0.29,0.39,0.53,0.63,0.45,0.15,0	91.6%
SAC 92, DEN 90	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.46,0.47,0.44,0.37,0.42,0.37,0.4,0.38,0.34,0.32,0.31,0.36,0.29,0.33,0.29,0.26,0.22,0.26,0.21,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.2,0.24,0.36,0.39,0.38,0.48,0.52,0.41,0.44,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.43,0.67,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.54,0.33,0.46,0.23,0.26,0	91.6%
CHI 106, MIN 105	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.5,0.43,0.45,0.39,0.43,0.42,0.47,0.46,0.42,0.47,0.4,0.4,0.37,0.37,0.25,0.22,0.26,0.3,0.2,0.14,0.16,0.21,0.3,0.24,0.36,0.42,0.38,0.34,0.44,0.3,0.21,0.34,0.26,0.33,0.38,0.42,0.31,0.24,0.28,0.47,0.54,0.55,0.28,0	91.4%