NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Seattle SuperSonics	113		Excitement	11.8 [24]		MVP	Ray Allen (SEA): +56.0%
Atlanta Hawks	112		Comeback	5.5 [207]		LVP	Joe Johnson (ATL): -33.5%

Seattle SuperSonics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ray Allen	0.56	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,-0.02,0.05,-0.02,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.56	0.07	0.48	-0.01	30	52%	0.59	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.03
Nick Collison	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.19,0.19	0.07	0.12	0.00	8	67%	0.19	0	0.00	2	100%	0.05
Chris Wilcox	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.10	0.05	0.01	6	86%	0.14	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Luke Ridnour	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0,0,0,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,0.06	0.05	0.02	0.01	14	59%	0.13	2	-0.08	4	75%	-0.00
Damien Wilkins	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.02	-0.01	3	30%	0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Danny Fortson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	44%	0.02	1	-0.03	3	67%	-0.00
Johan Petro	-0.05	0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	7	29%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Earl Watson	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	5	30%	-0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Rashard Lewis	-0.08	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.02,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	0.05	-0.12	0.01	18	57%	0.10	2	-0.18	4	75%	0.00

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Josh Childress	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.2,0.2,0.38,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.44	0.44	0.10	0.34	0.00	6	85%	0.50	2	-0.06	8	75%	0.04
Tyronn Lue	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.1	0.10	0.05	0.04	-0.00	8	67%	0.16	2	-0.06	5	80%	0.02
Lorenzen Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	75%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.03
Shelden Williams	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	0.01	2	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Cedric Bozeman	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	3	37%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Josh Smith	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.02,-0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.2,-0.29,-0.39,-0.39,-0.39,-0.22,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.00	-0.06	-0.00	20	52%	0.07	3	-0.12	6	50%	-0.07
Zaza Pachulia	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.18	-0.18	0.06	-0.22	0.02	14	60%	-0.12	2	-0.06	7	71%	-0.01
Joe Johnson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.04,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.15,-0.24,-0.31,-0.31,-0.39,-0.33	-0.33	-0.07	-0.28	-0.01	30	44%	-0.12	4	-0.21	3	33%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	23.2	2.5	32.7	15.8	22.5	2.4	33.2	1.5	16.1	149.9
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	1.9	17.4	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SEA +53.6%

SEA +10.6%

ATL -45.6%

SEA +15.6%

SEA +15.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SEA	ATL	NBA	SEA	ATL	NBA
this game	16.5	16.0	15.4	115.3	114.3	104.5
season	15.4	16.1		105.5	101.1
opponent	15.3	15.4		106.1	108.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
SEA	18.5	14.6	18.2	15.2	15.5	16.5
ATL	15.1	14.8	13.1	19.1	22.0	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Seattle SuperSonics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ray Allen	84	83	0.80	-0.30	1.10	0.56	8	-7	15	16.5	16.1	0.48	16.2	14.9	1.30
Luke Ridnour	75	74	0.76	-0.26	1.02	0.52	8	-7	15	16.0	18.1	-2.10	16.9	13.0	3.88
Rashard Lewis	81	84	0.64	-0.14	0.79	0.44	7	-6	13	16.6	15.8	0.86	16.5	12.6	3.88
Chris Wilcox	71	72	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.45	4	-3	7	16.9	15.5	1.38	16.2	15.2	1.01
Nick Collison	62	60	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.43	3	-2	5	15.6	17.9	-2.32	16.5	15.1	1.50
Danny Fortson	17	16	0.01	0.49	-0.49	-0.02	1	0	1	16.8	16.4	0.34	13.9	16.4	-2.43
Johan Petro	33	33	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	0.04	-4	5	-9	18.1	15.7	2.38	15.2	16.4	-1.19
Damien Wilkins	30	29	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	0.07	-8	9	-17	15.0	17.1	-2.08	14.5	16.6	-2.06
Earl Watson	37	39	-0.56	1.06	-1.61	-0.15	-14	15	-29	17.3	16.0	1.36	13.7	17.4	-3.70

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Lorenzen Wright	20	19	0.41	-0.91	1.31	0.11	10	-11	21	12.6	16.8	-4.23	17.2	16.3	0.91
Cedric Bozeman	41	41	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.03	-1	0	-1	15.2	16.5	-1.37	16.9	16.2	0.64
Josh Childress	74	75	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.43	4	-5	9	16.0	15.9	0.07	16.1	17.9	-1.82
Shelden Williams	38	36	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	0.02	-14	13	-27	15.4	16.3	-0.85	16.7	16.4	0.30
Tyronn Lue	65	65	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.48	3	-4	7	16.2	15.5	0.73	16.0	17.4	-1.33
Josh Smith	89	89	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.42	-5	4	-9	16.4	11.6	4.86	16.7	14.8	1.87
Joe Johnson	85	85	-0.60	0.10	-0.70	-0.48	-4	3	-7	16.3	13.7	2.63	16.4	16.8	-0.33
Zaza Pachulia	78	80	-0.64	0.14	-0.79	-0.70	2	-3	5	16.4	14.3	2.10	16.6	15.7	0.93

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.5,0.53,0.47,0.41,0.44,0.43,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.43,0.34,0.36,0.45,0.56,0.54,0.48,0.47,0.59,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.37,0.32,0.37,0.48,0.55,0.55,0.48,0.32,0.31,0.34,0.3,0.44,0.42,0.38,0.57,0.67,0.68,0.74,0.71,0.54,0.55,0.37,0.57,0.16,0.46,0.45,0.72,0.78,0.74,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 107, MIL 106	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.59,0.6,0.59,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.6,0.53,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.61,0.64,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.64,0.61,0.48,0.42,0.35,0.24,0.23,0.3,0.28,0.38,0.43,0.43,0.58,0.58,0.69,0.76,0.61,0.75,0.63,0.43,0.58,0.54,0.47,0.72,0.67,0.95,0	87.6%
BOS 101, PHI 98	0.5,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.53,0.5,0.45,0.41,0.39,0.33,0.38,0.44,0.43,0.52,0.44,0.42,0.36,0.42,0.33,0.28,0.36,0.41,0.46,0.58,0.67,0.54,0.62,0.57,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.55,0.38,0.45,0.34,0.29,0.36,0.46,0.57,0.62,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.54,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.57,0.42,0.5,0.61,0.78,0.66,0.91,0	87.5%
SAS 96, DET 95	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.51,0.56,0.61,0.61,0.59,0.57,0.63,0.58,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.47,0.4,0.4,0.35,0.3,0.29,0.36,0.44,0.39,0.46,0.5,0.54,0.46,0.45,0.42,0.3,0.34,0.29,0.35,0.34,0.37,0.52,0.46,0.38,0.47,0.58,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.67,0.68,0.63,0.68,0.4,0.46,0.55,0.72,0.77,0.73,0	87.1%