NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Washington Wizards	103		Excitement	9.0 [137]		MVP	Carlos Arroyo (ORL): +46.0%
Orlando Magic	106		Comeback	3.0 [457]		LVP	Gilbert Arenas (WAS): -18.1%

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Antawn Jamison	0.20	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.23,0.23,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.24,0.24,0.36,0.36,0.29,0.29,0.2	0.20	0.01	0.01	19	69%	0.20	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Antonio Daniels	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.07	0.02	0.01	5	71%	0.08	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Michael Ruffin	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Roger Mason Jr.	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brendan Haywood	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Etan Thomas	-0.05	0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,-0.05	0.03	-0.08	0.01	9	56%	-0.02	1	-0.03	7	29%	-0.15
Jarvis Hayes	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.02	-0.04	-0.00	8	37%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeShawn Stevenson	-0.11	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.04	-0.07	-0.00	3	67%	0.03	3	-0.14	0	0%	0.00
Caron Butler	-0.11	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.11	0.00	-0.11	0.01	10	59%	0.02	3	-0.13	7	71%	-0.03
Gilbert Arenas	-0.18	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.06,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.17,-0.17,-0.14,-0.18	-0.10	-0.08	-0.00	20	46%	0.06	6	-0.24	12	92%	0.10

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Carlos Arroyo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.16,0.16,0.2,0.2,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.24,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.46	0.46	0.20	0.26	0.00	13	79%	0.46	0	0.00	3	67%	0.03
Keyon Dooling	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.07,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.07	0.04	0.00	10	68%	0.15	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Keith Bogans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09	0.09	0.04	0.05	0.00	3	80%	0.12	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.01
Tony Battie	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.08	0.02	0.01	6	93%	0.13	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Grant Hill	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.00	0.04	-0.01	7	50%	0.11	1	-0.06	6	67%	0.01
Dwight Howard	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	0.03	-0.01	6	41%	0.04	2	-0.05	5	60%	-0.01
Jameer Nelson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.11	-0.02	-0.01	9	44%	0.01	5	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	0.02	-0.14	0.01	17	53%	-0.08	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Darko Milicic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.02,-0.05,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.09	-0.09	0.00	8	22%	-0.15	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.8	2.4	26.5	16.6	30.0	1.8	39.0	141.1
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +54.6%

ORL +3.1%

WAS -18.1%

ORL +14.0%

WAS -3.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	WAS	ORL	NBA	WAS	ORL	NBA
this game	14.9	15.9	15.4	109.6	114.0	104.5
season	14.8	15.9		107.8	103.4
opponent	15.7	15.3		103.0	108.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
WAS	12.5	18.5	15.6	13.5	14.9
ORL	16.5	15.1	15.0	17.2	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
DeShawn Stevenson	56	57	0.14	-0.64	0.78	-0.21	12	-15	27	12.4	18.4	-5.97	16.8	14.6	2.18
Michael Ruffin	5	5	0.01	-0.51	0.53	-0.05	2	-5	7	21.6	14.5	7.12	20.2	15.7	4.50
Roger Mason Jr.	5	5	0.01	-0.51	0.53	-0.05	2	-5	7	21.6	14.5	7.12	20.2	15.7	4.50
Antonio Daniels	47	47	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.09	1	-4	5	17.4	12.4	5.00	16.3	15.6	0.71
Brendan Haywood	13	14	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	0.05	-7	4	-11	22.2	13.7	8.55	14.7	16.2	-1.45
Caron Butler	79	79	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.36	3	-6	9	14.0	19.5	-5.56	15.7	17.6	-1.91
Jarvis Hayes	22	22	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.02	-13	10	-23	19.0	13.6	5.40	14.1	16.5	-2.37
Antawn Jamison	84	83	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.37	-2	-1	-1	14.2	20.0	-5.75	16.1	14.5	1.62
Etan Thomas	77	74	-0.62	0.12	-0.73	-0.56	-2	-1	-1	13.7	20.2	-6.49	15.7	16.8	-1.06
Gilbert Arenas	82	79	-0.72	0.22	-0.94	-0.40	-11	8	-19	14.6	16.9	-2.36	15.6	17.8	-2.17

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Carlos Arroyo	50	51	0.88	-0.38	1.26	0.38	17	-14	31	15.4	16.6	-1.14	16.9	12.4	4.50
Keyon Dooling	52	53	0.68	-0.18	0.85	0.44	8	-5	13	15.4	16.7	-1.32	15.8	13.7	2.05
Dwight Howard	71	71	0.50	0.00	0.49	0.47	1	2	-1	15.2	18.4	-3.23	13.7	18.3	-4.62
Hedo Turkoglu	64	66	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.53	-5	8	-13	15.8	16.2	-0.33	13.0	19.4	-6.40
Grant Hill	53	54	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.27	0	3	-3	16.3	15.5	0.74	13.6	16.5	-2.94
Keith Bogans	35	34	0.21	0.29	-0.07	0.01	7	-4	11	15.6	16.1	-0.51	17.7	13.2	4.46
Tony Battie	60	62	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.03	1	2	-1	17.0	14.1	2.92	15.2	14.2	0.93
Darko Milicic	35	35	-0.13	0.63	-0.77	-0.10	-1	4	-5	17.2	15.2	2.06	17.7	13.2	4.54
Jameer Nelson	45	44	-0.35	0.85	-1.20	0.03	-13	16	-29	16.0	15.9	0.19	12.7	16.8	-4.06

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.52,0.52,0.6,0.55,0.47,0.55,0.57,0.61,0.53,0.45,0.48,0.56,0.49,0.55,0.6,0.54,0.53,0.56,0.59,0.67,0.69,0.59,0.5,0.54,0.63,0.64,0.61,0.61,0.58,0.35,0.31,0.41,0.33,0.4,0.42,0.43,0.38,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.3,0.47,0.32,0.63,0.91,0.73,1
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 104, MIA 113	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.59,0.6,0.53,0.58,0.6,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.65,0.67,0.72,0.77,0.64,0.61,0.59,0.61,0.54,0.63,0.55,0.61,0.55,0.64,0.65,0.62,0.48,0.44,0.48,0.4,0.42,0.43,0.43,0.42,0.42,0.36,0.34,0.4,0.38,0.64,0.91,0.99,1	90.7%
CHI 74, PHI 77	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.49,0.53,0.59,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.65,0.59,0.64,0.56,0.58,0.67,0.61,0.75,0.66,0.7,0.64,0.61,0.61,0.55,0.52,0.44,0.31,0.37,0.36,0.46,0.38,0.38,0.58,0.58,0.68,0.46,0.4,0.31,0.45,0.68,0.58,1	90.7%
NYK 100, HOU 102	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.61,0.6,0.59,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.47,0.45,0.56,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.66,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.6,0.6,0.61,0.64,0.52,0.42,0.45,0.41,0.26,0.2,0.25,0.19,0.26,0.38,0.52,0.47,0.47,0.46,0.54,0.39,0.72,0.95,0.59,1	90.5%