NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Jersey Nets	85		Excitement	7.4 [362]		MVP	James Posey (MIA): +25.8%
Miami Heat	91		Comeback	2.1 [712]		LVP	Antoine Walker (MIA): -13.4%

New Jersey Nets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nenad Krstic	0.15	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15	0.09	0.07	0.01	11	71%	0.20	2	-0.05	6	100%	0.04
Vince Carter	0.02	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.05,0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02	0.03	0.01	0.02	23	55%	0.15	4	-0.13	3	100%	0.01
Mikki Moore	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antoine Wright	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	-0.01	5	58%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Bostjan Nachbar	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	5	30%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Williams	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05	-0.08	-0.00	-0.03	7	29%	-0.02	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jason Collins	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	2	25%	-0.03	1	-0.04	4	50%	-0.02
Jason Kidd	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.04	-0.06	0.00	7	53%	0.07	3	-0.17	3	100%	0.03
Richard Jefferson	-0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.18,-0.21,-0.16,-0.16,-0.21,-0.21,-0.26,-0.26,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.11	0.01	-0.00	15	32%	-0.01	3	-0.09	4	75%	0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
James Posey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.25,0.25,0.26	0.26	0.05	0.22	0.01	6	71%	0.28	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Gary Payton	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.07	0.07	0.01	9	61%	0.13	0	0.00	5	80%	0.01
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.05	0.02	0.00	13	55%	0.15	2	-0.09	5	80%	-0.01
Shaquille O'Neal	0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	-0.00	0.06	0.00	16	60%	0.19	5	-0.13	3	33%	-0.02
Jason Kapono	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.03	0.00	4	60%	0.08	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.00	8	44%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Dorell Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.09	-0.02	-0.00	5	20%	-0.06	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.09	-0.02	0.00	4	20%	-0.03	2	-0.08	2	0%	-0.03
Antoine Walker	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.08	-0.06	-0.01	11	46%	-0.04	4	-0.10	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.9	2.7	31.0	14.8	24.0	2.5	36.6	138.3
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +49.5%

NJN -16.2%

MIA +10.7%

MIA +2.0%

MIA +3.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NJN	MIA	NBA	NJN	MIA	NBA
this game	14.1	16.2	15.4	89.5	95.8	104.5
season	15.4	16.0		103.1	102.4
opponent	15.6	15.7		104.3	103.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NJN	15.1	13.1	14.6	13.7	14.1
MIA	15.5	15.2	17.5	16.9	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Jersey Nets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Antoine Wright	25	25	0.08	-0.58	0.65	-0.10	6	-12	18	16.1	13.4	2.71	15.4	16.5	-1.18
Bostjan Nachbar	30	32	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.18	7	-13	20	15.4	13.5	1.87	16.3	16.2	0.17
Mikki Moore	19	19	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.00	0	-6	6	16.3	13.5	2.72	14.0	16.8	-2.79
Marcus Williams	31	30	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.01	-1	-5	4	15.0	13.7	1.31	15.6	16.5	-0.97
Jason Kidd	71	72	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.28	-5	-1	-4	13.5	15.8	-2.28	16.3	16.1	0.19
Jason Collins	60	60	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.24	-8	2	-10	13.5	15.0	-1.50	17.7	13.8	3.90
Richard Jefferson	75	75	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	-0.23	-9	3	-12	13.6	15.7	-2.11	16.2	16.2	-0.02
Nenad Krstic	79	77	-0.53	0.03	-0.57	-0.24	-10	4	-14	13.7	15.8	-2.08	15.9	17.7	-1.77
Vince Carter	85	85	-0.63	0.13	-0.76	-0.34	-10	4	-14	13.8	16.3	-2.48	16.4	14.5	1.94

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Udonis Haslem	64	66	0.63	-0.13	0.75	0.33	10	-4	14	15.9	16.9	-1.04	13.5	15.5	-2.06
Dwyane Wade	60	61	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.37	7	-1	8	15.9	16.7	-0.76	13.8	14.5	-0.69
Shaquille O'Neal	69	68	0.56	-0.06	0.63	0.27	10	-4	14	17.7	12.3	5.40	13.9	14.7	-0.81
Gary Payton	80	80	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.34	4	2	2	16.2	16.2	0.04	13.9	14.8	-0.85
James Posey	55	53	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.31	-1	7	-8	15.9	16.7	-0.85	14.4	13.7	0.66
Antoine Walker	65	65	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.06	6	0	6	15.5	17.8	-2.29	14.3	13.6	0.66
Jason Kapono	30	29	0.02	0.48	-0.46	-0.07	3	3	0	17.1	15.8	1.22	13.5	14.3	-0.82
Alonzo Mourning	22	24	-0.08	0.58	-0.65	0.04	-4	10	-14	13.9	16.9	-3.02	15.7	13.5	2.12
Dorell Wright	30	29	-0.17	0.67	-0.85	-0.03	-5	11	-16	17.2	15.8	1.42	15.2	13.6	1.62

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.57,0.57,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.45,0.49,0.43,0.42,0.4,0.49,0.44,0.39,0.37,0.36,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.43,0.39,0.36,0.33,0.35,0.41,0.52,0.56,0.52,0.6,0.62,0.7,0.7,0.67,0.63,0.64,0.59,0.73,0.76,0.89,0.85,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 88, ORL 95	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.48,0.44,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.56,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.42,0.48,0.39,0.38,0.27,0.26,0.41,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.52,0.54,0.7,0.7,0.62,0.68,0.64,0.76,0.72,0.86,0.96,1,1,1	93.4%
SAC 82, PHI 89	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.5,0.53,0.46,0.43,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.36,0.34,0.38,0.42,0.39,0.44,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.46,0.4,0.43,0.39,0.48,0.43,0.45,0.38,0.44,0.56,0.67,0.6,0.66,0.78,0.68,0.62,0.58,0.64,0.59,0.78,0.8,0.96,0.99,1,1	93.0%
BKN 82, MIA 94	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.35,0.38,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.37,0.39,0.36,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.48,0.54,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.41,0.45,0.59,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.74,0.67,0.71,0.72,0.7,0.65,0.9,0.95,0.98,0.99,1,1	93.0%