NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	100		Excitement	7.7 [311]		MVP	Luther Head (HOU): +38.2%
Golden State Warriors	93		Comeback	4.2 [213]		LVP	Mike Dunleavy (GSW): -18.7%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Luther Head	0.38	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.21,0.24,0.24,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.28,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.38,0.38	0.26	0.13	0.02	9	108%	0.43	1	-0.04	6	67%	-0.04
Rafer Alston	0.21	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.16,0.16,0.21	0.03	0.19	0.01	14	53%	0.23	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Yao Ming	0.12	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12	0.05	0.07	-0.00	22	60%	0.31	6	-0.18	6	100%	0.05
Charles Hayes	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Bowen	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Juwan Howard	-0.03	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	14	43%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dikembe Mutombo	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	2	50%	0.02	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Rick Brunson	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Stromile Swift	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	4	57%	0.03	3	-0.09	6	67%	-0.01
Keith Bogans	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	4	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
David Wesley	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	6	29%	-0.09	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mickael Pietrus	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	-0.01	0.07	-0.01	3	50%	0.09	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Troy Murphy	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.01	0.06	-0.00	10	52%	0.09	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.03
Jason Richardson	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.21,0.11,0.24,0.16,0.1,0.1,0.07	0.07	0.09	-0.03	-0.00	18	69%	0.27	5	-0.21	6	83%	0.03
Ike Diogu	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.01	0.03	-0.02	6	50%	0.06	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Zarko Cabarkapa	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.01	-0.00	6	50%	0.04	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.01
Adonal Foyle	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	2	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Derek Fisher	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.04	-0.06	0.01	10	63%	0.07	3	-0.09	7	86%	0.03
Monta Ellis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.04	0.00	6	42%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Dunleavy	0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.11	-0.08	-0.00	16	28%	-0.13	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.2	2.5	34.2	16.8	23.7	1.8	29.3	130.6
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +36.1%

GSW -0.1%

HOU +22.1%

GSW -1.4%

GSW -6.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	GSW	NBA	HOU	GSW	NBA
this game	16.4	15.1	15.6	109.9	101.1	104.4
season	16.1	14.8		99.9	102.9
opponent	15.5	16.1		104.0	101.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	16.7	15.4	16.1	17.3	16.4
GSW	14.6	15.2	13.9	17.0	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
David Wesley	54	55	0.63	-0.13	0.75	0.27	12	-5	17	16.6	16.0	0.68	15.8	14.1	1.67
Rafer Alston	78	80	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.31	10	-3	13	16.1	18.2	-2.08	15.6	11.5	4.15
Luther Head	81	79	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.31	8	-1	9	15.8	20.9	-5.09	15.3	14.1	1.20
Yao Ming	66	66	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.30	7	0	7	15.3	19.1	-3.79	13.7	18.6	-4.83
Juwan Howard	58	59	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.32	3	4	-1	17.0	15.3	1.63	15.4	14.6	0.78
Charles Hayes	18	17	0.15	0.35	-0.20	-0.02	6	1	5	15.2	16.7	-1.50	17.7	14.5	3.19
Stromile Swift	23	24	0.03	0.47	-0.43	0.00	1	6	-5	16.0	16.5	-0.56	14.0	15.5	-1.56
Keith Bogans	43	45	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.01	-1	8	-9	16.3	16.4	-0.05	14.6	15.6	-1.00
Rick Brunson	13	12	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	-0.01	-3	10	-13	18.2	16.1	2.08	11.5	15.6	-4.15
Dikembe Mutombo	17	18	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	-0.01	-3	10	-13	20.2	15.5	4.75	18.3	14.3	3.94
Ryan Bowen	4	5	-0.16	0.66	-0.81	-0.01	-5	12	-17	24.2	16.0	8.24	9.6	15.4	-5.83

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Adonal Foyle	54	54	0.43	-0.93	1.35	-0.04	16	-23	39	12.7	18.5	-5.78	16.1	16.8	-0.69
Mickael Pietrus	28	26	0.14	-0.64	0.78	0.08	2	-9	11	17.9	13.9	3.95	19.4	15.2	4.22
Mike Dunleavy	67	69	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.25	3	-10	13	14.1	17.9	-3.86	16.1	17.2	-1.13
Jason Richardson	72	69	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.22	-2	-5	3	14.7	16.7	-2.10	16.9	14.8	2.11
Ike Diogu	29	29	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	0.08	-13	6	-19	18.6	13.5	5.03	16.8	16.2	0.62
Troy Murphy	72	70	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.26	-6	-1	-5	14.7	16.5	-1.78	16.6	15.5	1.17
Monta Ellis	32	33	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.08	-13	6	-19	16.0	14.6	1.41	14.5	17.4	-2.96
Zarko Cabarkapa	29	29	-0.69	0.19	-0.87	-0.36	-11	4	-15	17.1	14.2	2.86	15.8	16.6	-0.80
Derek Fisher	77	76	-0.74	0.24	-0.98	-0.41	-11	4	-15	15.1	15.3	-0.27	15.9	18.5	-2.59

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.5,0.42,0.53,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.37,0.38,0.35,0.38,0.42,0.38,0.4,0.4,0.48,0.44,0.39,0.44,0.41,0.28,0.22,0.37,0.4,0.34,0.39,0.45,0.58,0.59,0.62,0.69,0.63,0.56,0.62,0.62,0.48,0.48,0.37,0.64,0.71,0.66,0.81,0.64,0.22,0.09,0
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 94, UTA 92	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.39,0.42,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.4,0.38,0.36,0.33,0.4,0.4,0.39,0.34,0.31,0.39,0.44,0.44,0.5,0.46,0.43,0.36,0.36,0.45,0.61,0.65,0.66,0.69,0.74,0.6,0.74,0.66,0.67,0.62,0.58,0.64,0.6,0.53,0.62,0.45,0.16,0.04,0	90.8%
NJN 85, IND 84	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.43,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.41,0.37,0.35,0.43,0.42,0.38,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.45,0.44,0.47,0.44,0.42,0.41,0.36,0.36,0.34,0.3,0.26,0.37,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.62,0.74,0.63,0.56,0.58,0.66,0.52,0.33,0.37,0.36,0.53,0.61,0.62,0.46,0.34,0.28,0	90.6%
CHH 89, CHI 85	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.39,0.38,0.33,0.3,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.35,0.33,0.35,0.34,0.36,0.44,0.58,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.55,0.39,0.45,0.52,0.55,0.62,0.55,0.62,0.63,0.56,0.58,0.62,0.59,0.67,0.58,0.7,0.7,0.66,0.6,0.46,0.15,0.23,0	90.1%