NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	87		Excitement	6.6 [508]		MVP	Josh Smith (ATL): +29.2%
Milwaukee Bucks	88		Comeback	1.3 [891]		LVP	Al Harrington (ATL): -54.6%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Josh Smith	0.29	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.12,0.19,0.29,0.29	0.14	0.17	0.01	15	69%	0.31	1	-0.02	6	67%	-0.01
Salim Stoudamire	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.17,0.15,0.14,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.13	0.01	-0.01	14	68%	0.17	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.02
Royal Ivey	0.12	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.09	0.04	0.01	8	75%	0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marvin Williams	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	-0.00	0.00	6	56%	0.02	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
John Edwards	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Donta Smith	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Esteban Batista	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	0	100%	0.02	3	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Joe Johnson	-0.14	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.18,-0.17,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.16	0.01	-0.01	13	30%	-0.07	4	-0.08	4	75%	-0.02
Zaza Pachulia	-0.22	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.17,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.14	-0.08	-0.00	6	17%	-0.09	4	-0.13	0	0%	0.00
Al Harrington	-0.55	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.21,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.32,-0.55	-0.17	-0.38	-0.00	11	29%	-0.42	5	-0.13	2	100%	0.05

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Joe Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,0.01,0.14	0.14	-0.05	0.18	-0.01	5	43%	0.19	2	-0.05	4	50%	-0.01
Mo Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.01	-0.02	7	62%	0.08	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
T.J. Ford	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.02	0.00	10	54%	0.08	2	-0.04	6	67%	-0.02
Bobby Simmons	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.01	10	72%	0.11	5	-0.10	5	100%	0.02
Dan Gadzuric	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Charlie Bell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	5	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Bogut	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.02	8	56%	0.04	4	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Michael Redd	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.03	-0.03	0.01	-0.03	0.00	12	59%	0.01	3	-0.04	3	100%	0.01
Jamaal Magloire	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	7	41%	-0.05	2	-0.07	8	37%	-0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.2	2.0	32.0	15.7	28.1	2.5	36.4	145.9
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +33.8%

MIL +5.7%

MIL +7.2%

ATL -0.5%

MIL +3.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	MIL	NBA	ATL	MIL	NBA
this game	15.5	15.8	15.6	93.5	96.7	104.4
season	15.6	15.5		103.9	104.6
opponent	15.5	15.5		106.0	109.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	16.5	16.1	14.4	14.9	15.5
MIL	14.8	15.9	13.2	20.1	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Donta Smith	13	11	0.07	-0.57	0.65	-0.04	4	-5	9	14.8	15.6	-0.82	12.7	16.3	-3.54
Esteban Batista	22	21	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	-0.10	3	-4	7	15.0	15.6	-0.62	16.2	15.7	0.46
John Edwards	1	1	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	0.04	-2	1	-3	6.0	15.6	-9.58	19.0	15.8	3.20
Marvin Williams	52	51	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.33	9	-10	19	14.4	16.8	-2.38	16.1	15.5	0.60
Salim Stoudamire	54	52	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.26	4	-5	9	14.7	16.6	-1.92	16.2	15.3	0.92
Royal Ivey	39	39	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.21	-5	4	-9	16.6	14.7	1.92	15.3	16.2	-0.92
Al Harrington	61	59	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.41	-1	0	-1	15.4	15.6	-0.18	16.0	15.5	0.57
Josh Smith	72	72	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.23	-8	7	-15	15.8	14.2	1.60	16.0	15.3	0.72
Joe Johnson	89	87	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.44	-1	0	-1	15.5	14.5	1.02	15.9	14.0	1.92
Zaza Pachulia	62	62	-0.60	0.10	-0.70	-0.37	-8	7	-15	16.4	13.6	2.79	15.5	16.5	-1.00

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bobby Simmons	71	74	0.74	-0.24	0.97	0.27	16	-15	31	14.7	19.8	-5.15	16.5	11.4	5.16
T.J. Ford	65	65	0.73	-0.23	0.96	0.26	16	-15	31	15.8	16.0	-0.28	16.5	13.1	3.39
Michael Redd	79	80	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.48	4	-3	7	16.3	13.0	3.27	15.4	15.9	-0.52
Andrew Bogut	60	60	0.40	0.10	0.29	-0.04	15	-14	29	14.6	18.3	-3.72	15.9	14.8	1.11
Jamaal Magloire	68	68	0.23	0.27	-0.04	-0.09	11	-10	21	15.4	17.1	-1.73	16.5	12.7	3.77
Charlie Bell	35	35	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.69	-16	17	-33	17.0	15.1	1.85	13.4	16.7	-3.37
Joe Smith	40	42	-0.08	0.58	-0.67	0.56	-22	23	-45	18.2	13.9	4.31	14.0	16.7	-2.77
Dan Gadzuric	11	12	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.06	-6	7	-13	17.3	15.6	1.64	14.0	15.7	-1.69
Mo Williams	26	29	-0.22	0.72	-0.94	0.16	-13	14	-27	16.0	15.8	0.28	12.9	16.7	-3.79

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.54,0.55,0.6,0.59,0.61,0.59,0.63,0.68,0.68,0.65,0.68,0.72,0.63,0.53,0.58,0.54,0.59,0.64,0.64,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.61,0.69,0.75,0.85,0.73,0.84,0.8,0.86,0.92,0.96,0.93,0.92,0.93,0.93,0.92,0.81,0.74,0.71,0.72,0.81,0.78,0.55,0.74,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 95, DET 99	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.53,0.61,0.61,0.57,0.58,0.6,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.64,0.71,0.63,0.63,0.71,0.69,0.61,0.61,0.64,0.75,0.74,0.79,0.83,0.81,0.73,0.74,0.77,0.87,0.9,0.95,0.91,0.87,0.93,0.88,0.9,0.88,0.83,0.85,0.82,0.89,0.72,0.33,0.59,1	91.8%
POR 80, SAS 81	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.58,0.57,0.6,0.59,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.62,0.63,0.62,0.56,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.59,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.58,0.69,0.78,0.81,0.84,0.87,0.9,0.91,0.88,0.87,0.82,0.87,0.92,0.85,0.86,0.85,0.7,0.65,0.78,0.9,0.83,0.91,0.73,1	91.7%
DEN 113, WAS 119	0.5,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.55,0.62,0.61,0.62,0.59,0.63,0.65,0.58,0.58,0.63,0.64,0.56,0.6,0.67,0.71,0.7,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.58,0.56,0.5,0.58,0.63,0.72,0.83,0.87,0.79,0.74,0.75,0.77,0.87,0.93,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.92,0.93,0.87,0.76,0.9,0.76,0.85,0.78,0.84,1	91.7%