NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	123		Excitement	4.9 [856]		MVP	Mike Bibby (SAC): +21.0%
Milwaukee Bucks	116		Comeback	1.5 [430]		LVP	Brad Miller (SAC): -8.0%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike Bibby	0.21	0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.20	0.05	0.04	20	69%	0.26	2	-0.05	12	100%	0.04
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.01	0.01	9	78%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kenny Thomas	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.02	0.02	13	63%	0.10	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Kevin Martin	0.08	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.11	0.01	0.05	8	70%	0.08	0	0.00	7	71%	-0.02
Bonzi Wells	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	12	66%	0.15	4	-0.10	5	80%	0.00
Metta World Peace	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.02	8	37%	-0.00	1	-0.02	8	75%	-0.00
Brad Miller	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08	-0.10	-0.01	-0.03	9	45%	0.03	5	-0.11	4	100%	0.02

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Redd	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.12,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13	0.13	0.19	0.00	0.07	21	70%	0.15	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Bobby Simmons	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03	0.03	0.13	-0.01	0.10	11	87%	0.08	3	-0.05	2	100%	0.00
T.J. Ford	0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.04	0.00	0.02	17	63%	0.10	4	-0.08	4	100%	0.01
Jamaal Magloire	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.02	-0.00	6	73%	0.08	3	-0.07	3	33%	-0.03
Jermaine Jackson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Charlie Bell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	11	41%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Bogut	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.03	7	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Dan Gadzuric	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	4	42%	0.01	1	-0.03	4	25%	-0.04
Joe Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.01	0.02	8	29%	-0.07	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	2.5	27.0	15.8	26.5	2.5	39.5	136.9
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +18.2%

SAC +21.3%

SAC +11.5%

MIL -1.9%

SAC +0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	MIL	NBA	SAC	MIL	NBA
this game	15.0	14.7	15.6	126.8	119.6	104.4
season	15.3	15.5		104.7	104.6
opponent	15.5	15.5		106.0	103.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	13.7	14.9	16.1	15.5	15.0
MIL	13.4	17.0	14.5	13.8	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bonzi Wells	63	62	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.22	12	-5	17	15.0	15.1	-0.18	15.2	13.7	1.57
Mike Bibby	92	91	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.26	9	-2	11	14.9	17.6	-2.71	14.4	18.3	-3.92
Brad Miller	77	77	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.16	10	-3	13	15.6	12.9	2.68	14.2	16.4	-2.26
Metta World Peace	91	92	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.33	4	3	1	15.2	13.2	1.99	14.5	18.4	-3.94
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	43	45	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.15	8	-1	9	16.3	14.0	2.37	17.5	12.2	5.32
Kenny Thomas	68	67	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.22	-2	9	-11	14.8	15.7	-0.89	13.7	16.7	-3.00
Kevin Martin	51	51	-0.04	0.54	-0.59	0.13	-6	13	-19	13.5	16.7	-3.12	14.2	15.2	-1.02

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andrew Bogut	61	60	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.27	7	-14	21	12.7	18.0	-5.27	15.1	15.0	0.09
Jamaal Magloire	69	69	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.21	1	-8	9	13.5	17.5	-4.04	15.6	13.7	1.85
Dan Gadzuric	23	22	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.02	-10	3	-13	19.5	13.2	6.32	17.0	14.4	2.61
Bobby Simmons	46	46	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.10	-8	1	-9	14.5	14.8	-0.26	13.9	16.0	-2.08
Charlie Bell	65	65	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.20	-6	-1	-5	15.4	13.1	2.34	14.8	15.5	-0.65
Michael Redd	91	92	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.34	-1	-6	5	14.2	22.0	-7.82	15.3	10.2	5.09
T.J. Ford	91	91	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	-0.31	-4	-3	-1	14.5	16.7	-2.14	15.0	15.5	-0.50
Joe Smith	39	40	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.09	-12	5	-17	17.3	12.9	4.34	14.0	15.7	-1.71

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.42,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.38,0.33,0.4,0.31,0.26,0.31,0.34,0.31,0.27,0.22,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.19,0.21,0.23,0.19,0.13,0.12,0.11,0.13,0.19,0.18,0.1,0.08,0.07,0.08,0.05,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
BKN 104, PHX 82	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.55,0.46,0.48,0.38,0.33,0.35,0.37,0.35,0.32,0.29,0.21,0.21,0.16,0.22,0.14,0.11,0.13,0.11,0.21,0.24,0.26,0.16,0.13,0.08,0.07,0.13,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.02,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.2%
SAS 119, LAL 113	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.46,0.48,0.47,0.45,0.53,0.51,0.43,0.45,0.46,0.43,0.42,0.34,0.4,0.38,0.33,0.32,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.33,0.22,0.2,0.17,0.1,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.2,0.16,0.13,0.16,0.19,0.13,0.1,0.07,0.05,0.09,0.08,0.09,0.13,0.11,0.05,0.06,0.01,0	95.1%
UTA 102, POR 89	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.55,0.54,0.5,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.43,0.42,0.38,0.42,0.42,0.34,0.29,0.31,0.28,0.3,0.25,0.16,0.19,0.14,0.15,0.13,0.14,0.13,0.15,0.14,0.12,0.14,0.07,0.1,0.07,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.1%