NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	94		Excitement	8.2 [231]		MVP	Jason Richardson (GSW): +27.0%
Golden State Warriors	98		Comeback	3.4 [679]		LVP	Derek Fisher (GSW): -19.5%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Darko Milicic	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.10	0.07	0.00	7	80%	0.18	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Keyon Dooling	0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.07	0.03	0.04	0.01	9	62%	0.10	2	-0.04	3	100%	0.03
Tony Battie	0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.01	-0.01	8	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Pat Garrity	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	3	33%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeShawn Stevenson	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1	0.04	-0.10	0.04	15	56%	-0.07	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.05
Dwight Howard	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1	-0.07	-0.08	-0.04	15	47%	-0.01	4	-0.09	6	50%	-0.02
Grant Hill	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.14,-0.18,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.07	-0.03	0.02	12	38%	-0.03	2	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Hedo Turkoglu	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.03	-0.11	0.00	12	40%	-0.06	1	-0.07	1	100%	0.00
Carlos Arroyo	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.17,-0.17,-0.21,-0.21,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.11	-0.03	-0.00	9	22%	-0.06	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Richardson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.24,0.27	0.27	0.10	0.20	0.04	15	60%	0.29	1	-0.02	12	83%	0.04
Mike Dunleavy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.06	0.04	0.00	8	63%	0.12	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.02
Andris Biedrins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.01	0.05	-0.00	5	50%	0.06	0	0.00	6	33%	-0.08
Mickael Pietrus	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,0.03,0.03,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.07	0.02	8	46%	0.05	0	0.00	8	50%	-0.04
Ike Diogu	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Adonal Foyle	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	3	33%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Troy Murphy	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.04	-0.00	16	40%	-0.06	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Monta Ellis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	6	43%	0.00	2	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
Derek Fisher	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.04,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.2	-0.20	-0.04	-0.15	0.00	12	60%	0.06	6	-0.25	6	83%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.8	1.6	29.1	15.8	26.8	1.7	39.3	138.0
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +35.5%

GSW +14.8%

ORL -1.8%

GSW +0.5%

GSW +0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	GSW	NBA	ORL	GSW	NBA
this game	16.4	14.1	15.6	98.9	104.3	104.4
season	16.4	14.8		104.4	102.9
opponent	15.5	15.7		104.0	105.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	17.1	14.7	16.3	17.5	16.4
GSW	14.2	13.0	15.7	13.8	14.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Darko Milicic	53	52	0.20	-0.70	0.91	-0.00	7	-11	18	16.1	16.7	-0.66	13.9	14.3	-0.34
Carlos Arroyo	39	38	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	-0.04	0	-4	4	16.6	16.2	0.46	14.8	13.6	1.16
Pat Garrity	20	18	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.06	-5	1	-6	15.4	16.6	-1.23	10.9	14.8	-3.90
DeShawn Stevenson	68	66	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.11	-6	2	-8	16.4	16.3	0.10	14.2	13.8	0.44
Dwight Howard	70	71	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.42	4	-8	12	17.3	13.9	3.38	15.1	10.9	4.27
Grant Hill	58	58	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.26	-2	-2	0	16.2	16.6	-0.33	13.3	15.4	-2.14
Hedo Turkoglu	69	68	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.42	0	-4	4	15.7	18.0	-2.30	13.9	14.6	-0.67
Keyon Dooling	56	56	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.34	-4	0	-4	16.2	16.6	-0.46	13.6	14.8	-1.16
Tony Battie	42	43	-0.67	0.17	-0.84	-0.26	-14	10	-24	16.9	16.0	0.92	15.1	13.3	1.80

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Derek Fisher	80	80	0.67	-0.17	0.85	0.44	8	-4	12	14.0	14.6	-0.56	16.4	16.3	0.04
Mickael Pietrus	65	66	0.59	-0.09	0.67	0.38	7	-3	10	13.9	14.6	-0.66	16.1	16.9	-0.81
Troy Murphy	78	78	0.56	-0.06	0.61	0.32	8	-4	12	14.8	10.6	4.18	17.0	13.4	3.67
Jason Richardson	83	83	0.54	-0.04	0.59	0.43	4	0	4	14.0	15.0	-1.02	16.1	18.0	-1.87
Andris Biedrins	40	41	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.48	0	4	-4	14.9	13.5	1.36	17.3	15.6	1.67
Adonal Foyle	45	44	0.05	0.45	-0.41	-0.07	4	0	4	13.9	14.2	-0.31	16.3	16.4	-0.05
Ike Diogu	4	5	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.01	-2	6	-8	16.5	14.0	2.51	18.6	16.2	2.36
Mike Dunleavy	39	40	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	-0.05	-3	7	-10	13.0	14.9	-1.92	15.6	16.9	-1.37
Monta Ellis	36	38	-0.19	0.69	-0.89	-0.02	-6	10	-16	13.7	14.4	-0.70	15.5	16.9	-1.45

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.61,0.58,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.42,0.44,0.47,0.49,0.39,0.31,0.35,0.39,0.42,0.39,0.49,0.46,0.57,0.61,0.58,0.55,0.48,0.38,0.52,0.44,0.48,0.36,0.26,0.3,0.33,0.48,0.58,0.36,0.53,0.58,0.47,0.29,0.53,0.84,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 108, UTA 114	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.54,0.51,0.57,0.66,0.68,0.6,0.59,0.62,0.57,0.56,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.39,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.45,0.52,0.45,0.35,0.31,0.31,0.3,0.28,0.26,0.26,0.29,0.46,0.42,0.36,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.46,0.55,0.85,1	91.6%
MIN 97, TOR 100	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.58,0.54,0.48,0.45,0.39,0.43,0.49,0.53,0.47,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.4,0.36,0.33,0.39,0.45,0.42,0.43,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.42,0.45,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.3,0.26,0.47,0.57,0.58,0.47,0.54,0.4,0.19,0.28,0.57,0.73,1	91.1%
IND 96, CLE 100	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.46,0.36,0.42,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.52,0.43,0.33,0.45,0.38,0.48,0.44,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.54,0.38,0.34,0.33,0.47,0.31,0.6,0.66,0.53,0.36,0.45,0.59,1	90.6%