NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	87		Excitement	5.6 [704]		MVP	Kenyon Martin (DEN): +18.2%
Denver Nuggets	98		Comeback	2.5 [777]		LVP	Reggie Evans (DEN): -12.6%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chauncey Billups	0.08	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.14,0.14,0.2,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.16	-0.03	0.05	16	66%	0.12	1	-0.04	9	78%	-0.01
Maurice Evans	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Ben Wallace	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.02	-0.01	6	67%	0.06	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Delfino	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	4	37%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lindsey Hunter	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0.00	2	75%	0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Richard Hamilton	-0.04	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.01	-0.05	0.00	21	45%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	7	29%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rasheed Wallace	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	13	39%	-0.04	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Tayshaun Prince	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.08	-0.00	-0.02	12	30%	-0.05	1	-0.02	3	67%	0.01

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kenyon Martin	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.11,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.17	0.03	0.02	21	67%	0.18	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Camby	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.02	-0.01	9	55%	0.06	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Carmelo Anthony	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	-0.01	-0.03	26	45%	0.05	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.02
Ruben Patterson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.06	0.01	-0.03	16	39%	0.04	2	-0.07	1	0%	-0.02
Andre Miller	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	9	50%	0.00	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Earl Boykins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	7	40%	-0.01	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
DerMarr Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Evans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.11	-0.02	-0.00	4	33%	-0.02	4	-0.10	4	50%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.4	3.5	26.5	16.6	24.8	1.8	26.0	121.6
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +21.1%

DEN +1.6%

DEN +32.8%

DET -2.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	DEN	NBA	DET	DEN	NBA
this game	17.9	15.0	15.6	100.0	111.4	104.4
season	16.9	14.4		108.3	103.5
opponent	15.9	15.8		103.5	101.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	17.6	16.6	18.3	19.4	17.9
DEN	15.9	12.2	15.1	17.6	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Maurice Evans	13	13	0.03	-0.53	0.56	-0.00	1	-12	13	15.2	18.4	-3.12	13.9	15.2	-1.32
Lindsey Hunter	22	22	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	-0.05	-1	-10	9	19.3	17.4	1.92	13.3	15.6	-2.36
Antonio McDyess	48	48	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.11	-1	-10	9	17.0	19.0	-1.97	14.4	15.8	-1.43
Carlos Delfino	28	26	-0.17	-0.34	0.17	-0.05	-4	-7	3	15.7	18.9	-3.20	13.9	15.5	-1.65
Tayshaun Prince	59	62	-0.34	-0.17	-0.17	-0.13	-7	-4	-3	18.9	15.7	3.20	15.5	13.9	1.65
Rasheed Wallace	60	62	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.16	-7	-4	-3	17.5	18.7	-1.24	15.4	14.3	1.10
Chauncey Billups	70	71	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.16	-9	-2	-7	18.2	16.6	1.61	15.7	12.1	3.63
Ben Wallace	66	66	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.09	-14	3	-17	18.9	14.8	4.12	15.2	14.5	0.67
Richard Hamilton	69	70	-0.53	0.03	-0.55	-0.14	-13	2	-15	17.6	18.9	-1.34	15.1	14.8	0.27

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Carmelo Anthony	68	67	0.54	-0.04	0.59	0.10	15	-4	19	15.3	14.1	1.22	17.9	17.8	0.11
Andre Miller	69	66	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.12	12	-1	13	15.6	13.1	2.47	17.5	19.1	-1.66
Marcus Camby	63	62	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.06	13	-2	15	15.4	14.2	1.13	18.5	16.2	2.31
Ruben Patterson	66	64	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.18	8	3	5	15.3	14.3	0.97	18.5	16.0	2.50
Reggie Evans	47	46	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.16	5	6	-1	14.6	15.6	-1.06	17.2	18.6	-1.37
Kenyon Martin	66	66	0.25	0.25	0.01	0.14	4	7	-3	15.1	14.9	0.18	17.7	18.4	-0.72
DerMarr Johnson	25	26	0.14	0.36	-0.23	-0.01	5	6	-1	14.7	15.2	-0.45	18.7	17.5	1.15
Earl Boykins	36	38	-0.06	0.56	-0.63	0.14	-7	18	-25	13.3	16.3	-2.99	16.9	18.7	-1.81

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.5,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.41,0.39,0.39,0.4,0.4,0.35,0.4,0.46,0.47,0.47,0.39,0.32,0.36,0.29,0.36,0.46,0.46,0.5,0.45,0.51,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.71,0.68,0.82,0.79,0.84,0.88,0.87,0.92,0.9,0.93,0.91,0.94,0.92,0.87,0.9,0.98,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 85, WAS 94	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.41,0.4,0.42,0.4,0.37,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.42,0.47,0.44,0.39,0.42,0.37,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.6,0.7,0.71,0.72,0.72,0.82,0.86,0.87,0.87,0.94,0.96,0.92,0.93,0.92,0.95,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	94.8%
NOK 86, UTA 96	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.43,0.43,0.39,0.47,0.41,0.41,0.43,0.38,0.34,0.35,0.36,0.38,0.44,0.42,0.42,0.37,0.32,0.36,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.54,0.6,0.69,0.55,0.65,0.65,0.68,0.82,0.82,0.83,0.82,0.87,0.84,0.82,0.83,0.85,0.87,0.88,0.9,1,1,1,1,1	94.6%
NOK 80, GSW 101	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.5,0.42,0.42,0.49,0.47,0.43,0.43,0.38,0.38,0.43,0.38,0.44,0.4,0.4,0.35,0.35,0.29,0.31,0.36,0.41,0.44,0.5,0.54,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.71,0.68,0.72,0.69,0.72,0.81,0.79,0.9,0.94,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.5%