NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	75		Excitement	1.7 [1314]		MVP	Steve Nash (PHX): +9.5%
Phoenix Suns	109		Comeback	1.0 [1273]		LVP	Tracy McGrady (HOU): -7.0%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Luther Head	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	9	56%	0.02	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Bowen	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.04	0.00	0.03	2	100%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keith Bogans	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.04	0.00	-0.03	7	40%	0.00	1	0.00	6	50%	-0.01
Charles Hayes	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	7	43%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jon Barry	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	4	37%	-0.01	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Juwan Howard	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	0.00	0.02	5	60%	-0.02	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Stromile Swift	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.02	13	45%	0.01	3	-0.04	3	100%	0.01
Yao Ming	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	0.00	0.01	7	37%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	-0.00
David Wesley	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.08	0.00	-0.05	4	0%	-0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Rafer Alston	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.07	0.00	-0.02	12	37%	-0.02	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tracy McGrady	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.14	0.00	-0.07	15	32%	-0.01	4	-0.06	1	100%	0.00

Phoenix Suns
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Steve Nash	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.16	0.00	0.07	10	95%	0.10	2	-0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Eddie House	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.03	0.00	-0.04	13	57%	0.07	2	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Raja Bell	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.06	0.00	0.02	12	62%	0.06	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Kurt Thomas	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.05	9	40%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Shawn Marion	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.05	0.00	0.05	14	53%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	-0.00
Pat Burke	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	7	44%	-0.00	1	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Nikoloz Tskitishvili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.08	0.00	-0.08	4	0%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Boris Diaw	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.04	0.00	0.04	10	64%	-0.00	2	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Leandro Barbosa	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.02	0.00	0.04	9	60%	0.01	2	-0.03	2	100%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.2	3.5	30.3	19.7	25.2	3.5	28.3	137.7
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

PHX +36.7%

HOU -1.5%

PHX +5.2%

PHX +8.2%

PHX +1.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	PHX	NBA	HOU	PHX	NBA
this game	16.4	13.3	15.6	77.3	112.4	104.4
season	16.1	13.8		99.9	110.2
opponent	16.1	16.1		105.8	101.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	15.2	19.1	16.2	15.1	16.4
PHX	13.6	10.9	12.6	16.2	13.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Charles Hayes	32	33	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	-0.21	7	-41	48	16.1	16.6	-0.49	15.2	12.3	2.90
Luther Head	49	51	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	-0.15	2	-36	38	16.7	16.1	0.63	13.9	12.5	1.38
Juwan Howard	25	24	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	0.39	-18	-16	-2	15.0	16.9	-1.97	12.7	13.5	-0.74
Jon Barry	44	45	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.09	-2	-32	30	16.5	16.4	0.14	13.7	12.9	0.74
Ryan Bowen	34	36	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	0.15	-11	-23	12	16.3	16.5	-0.24	12.9	13.5	-0.51
Stromile Swift	52	53	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	0.12	-11	-23	12	17.8	14.8	2.99	13.4	13.1	0.37
Keith Bogans	52	52	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	-0.02	-7	-27	20	17.0	15.8	1.20	14.0	12.4	1.66
Yao Ming	43	42	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	0.46	-26	-8	-18	15.3	17.3	-2.01	13.0	13.5	-0.56
David Wesley	43	41	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	0.71	-36	2	-38	16.6	16.3	0.29	11.6	14.5	-2.83
Tracy McGrady	56	55	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	0.58	-33	-1	-32	16.2	16.7	-0.49	12.8	13.8	-1.00
Rafer Alston	55	53	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	0.56	-35	1	-36	16.2	16.8	-0.60	12.6	14.0	-1.42

Phoenix Suns
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Raja Bell	77	77	0.54	-0.04	0.59	-0.75	44	-10	54	12.5	16.3	-3.82	17.0	14.2	2.74
Shawn Marion	65	65	0.48	0.02	0.46	-0.81	44	-10	54	12.3	15.2	-2.91	17.3	14.6	2.68
Boris Diaw	79	81	0.38	0.12	0.26	-0.18	19	15	4	13.9	10.6	3.33	15.6	20.6	-5.03
Kurt Thomas	42	42	0.35	0.15	0.19	-0.42	26	8	18	12.2	14.1	-1.82	16.1	16.7	-0.62
Steve Nash	63	62	0.33	0.17	0.16	-0.72	36	-2	38	12.5	14.6	-2.08	16.4	16.5	-0.19
Eddie House	47	47	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.01	8	26	-18	13.5	13.1	0.43	17.1	15.7	1.41
Leandro Barbosa	64	64	0.17	0.33	-0.15	-0.09	9	25	-16	13.9	12.1	1.78	16.2	16.8	-0.60
Pat Burke	31	30	0.00	0.50	-0.49	0.30	-10	44	-54	15.3	12.3	2.92	16.0	16.6	-0.56
Nikoloz Tskitishvili	17	17	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.18	-6	40	-46	16.4	12.6	3.74	15.0	16.7	-1.73

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.59,0.57,0.64,0.69,0.7,0.73,0.71,0.76,0.77,0.76,0.75,0.8,0.81,0.87,0.86,0.92,0.92,0.89,0.94,0.96,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 70, OKC 108	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.61,0.65,0.67,0.71,0.68,0.68,0.68,0.72,0.78,0.78,0.78,0.78,0.81,0.82,0.86,0.91,0.9,0.92,0.94,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	98.0%
CHI 81, SAS 105	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.62,0.68,0.71,0.69,0.7,0.75,0.76,0.77,0.78,0.75,0.78,0.82,0.84,0.86,0.92,0.93,0.94,0.94,0.94,0.94,0.96,0.98,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	98.0%
CHH 96, IND 133	0.5,0.51,0.56,0.57,0.53,0.63,0.69,0.68,0.71,0.75,0.78,0.73,0.77,0.77,0.81,0.85,0.88,0.9,0.93,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.9%