NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	101		Excitement	4.0 [1032]		MVP	Shaquille O'Neal (MIA): +13.3%
Houston Rockets	95		Comeback	1.1 [567]		LVP	James Posey (MIA): -6.6%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shaquille O'Neal	0.13	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13	0.10	0.01	-0.03	10	63%	0.15	1	-0.01	18	67%	0.03
Dwyane Wade	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.08	0.08	0.01	0.00	18	58%	0.12	3	-0.04	19	84%	0.01
Antoine Walker	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.01	8	62%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.01	-0.01	6	69%	0.05	1	-0.00	1	100%	0.01
Alonzo Mourning	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	0.00	0.02	2	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gary Payton	0.02	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	11	55%	0.05	3	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Gerald Fitch	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.06	0.00	-0.06	6	29%	0.01	1	-0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Dorell Wright	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Posey	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.08	-0.01	-0.02	8	37%	0.00	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rafer Alston	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.10	0.01	0.04	17	65%	0.10	3	-0.04	6	83%	0.00
Moochie Norris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lonny Baxter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	0.00	0.02	3	62%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Tracy McGrady	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.01	0.02	37	44%	0.00	0	0.00	10	70%	-0.02
Ryan Bowen	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dikembe Mutombo	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	2	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
David Wesley	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	0.01	6	47%	-0.02	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Juwan Howard	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	9	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Charles Hayes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	6	43%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Stromile Swift	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.06	-0.00	-0.02	1	0%	-0.01	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Luther Head	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.08	-0.00	-0.03	4	0%	-0.05	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.1	3.4	30.6	16.4	32.4	3.3	42.6	154.8
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +34.5%

MIA +9.7%

MIA +1.7%

MIA +2.2%

MIA +1.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	HOU	NBA	MIA	HOU	NBA
this game	15.7	16.3	15.6	109.8	108.0	104.4
season	15.5	16.1		106.1	99.9
opponent	16.1	15.5		101.4	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	18.0	15.4	15.0	14.8	15.7
HOU	18.0	18.2	17.1	12.8	16.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gary Payton	77	75	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.21	10	-4	14	15.1	18.7	-3.63	16.5	15.3	1.19
James Posey	83	78	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.25	7	-1	8	15.7	16.1	-0.46	16.2	16.9	-0.66
Udonis Haslem	61	60	0.43	0.07	0.35	0.08	12	-6	18	15.2	16.7	-1.53	16.2	16.5	-0.21
Dwyane Wade	82	79	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.28	5	1	4	15.4	18.4	-3.03	16.0	19.2	-3.23
Shaquille O'Neal	58	58	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.12	10	-4	14	16.2	14.9	1.34	16.9	15.1	1.80
Gerald Fitch	29	26	0.13	0.37	-0.23	0.13	0	6	-6	17.8	14.7	3.06	17.3	15.9	1.35
Alonzo Mourning	34	30	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.20	-4	10	-14	14.9	16.2	-1.34	15.1	16.9	-1.80
Antoine Walker	31	28	0.07	0.43	-0.35	0.25	-6	12	-18	16.7	15.2	1.53	16.5	16.2	0.21
Dorell Wright	5	6	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	0.10	-4	10	-14	18.8	15.5	3.28	15.3	16.4	-1.06

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Moochie Norris	6	7	0.02	-0.52	0.53	-0.01	1	-7	8	17.8	16.2	1.63	14.1	15.8	-1.68
Ryan Bowen	0	1	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.00	0	-6	6	0.0	16.3	-16.32	41.0	15.4	25.58
Lonny Baxter	28	30	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	-0.42	12	-18	30	13.4	17.7	-4.29	15.4	15.9	-0.49
Stromile Swift	15	17	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	0.00	-3	-3	0	16.6	16.3	0.34	14.9	15.9	-0.93
Charles Hayes	45	49	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.36	8	-14	22	14.5	18.2	-3.74	14.7	16.9	-2.19
Luther Head	35	37	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.26	3	-9	12	15.5	16.9	-1.43	17.2	14.7	2.45
Dikembe Mutombo	37	37	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	0.02	-11	5	-16	18.3	14.9	3.46	17.1	14.8	2.32
David Wesley	61	63	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.00	-14	8	-22	17.0	14.8	2.22	14.7	18.0	-3.31
Juwan Howard	51	51	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	0.11	-18	12	-30	18.0	14.0	4.00	16.1	15.2	0.95
Tracy McGrady	84	87	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.35	-3	-3	0	16.2	19.2	-3.07	15.5	18.4	-2.86
Rafer Alston	78	81	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.34	-5	-1	-4	16.2	17.2	-0.99	15.8	14.7	1.10

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.44,0.42,0.38,0.36,0.37,0.35,0.33,0.29,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.33,0.29,0.26,0.24,0.25,0.19,0.2,0.23,0.33,0.42,0.31,0.23,0.17,0.22,0.19,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.07,0.08,0.01,0.03,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 86, VAN 74	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.44,0.46,0.43,0.41,0.43,0.43,0.38,0.38,0.3,0.3,0.28,0.27,0.27,0.29,0.34,0.27,0.22,0.24,0.25,0.39,0.42,0.37,0.31,0.25,0.22,0.19,0.11,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0	95.8%
POR 92, VAN 73	0.5,0.49,0.43,0.43,0.45,0.44,0.42,0.4,0.41,0.37,0.32,0.31,0.32,0.3,0.34,0.32,0.36,0.32,0.24,0.3,0.23,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.29,0.3,0.26,0.28,0.2,0.17,0.24,0.09,0.15,0.16,0.15,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.7%
BOS 102, CHA 89	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.42,0.45,0.41,0.37,0.38,0.41,0.4,0.33,0.36,0.38,0.34,0.38,0.34,0.23,0.25,0.22,0.28,0.28,0.24,0.23,0.31,0.27,0.3,0.31,0.28,0.22,0.19,0.16,0.09,0.06,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.08,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.07,0.01,0,0	95.7%