NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	78		Excitement	9.4 [114]		MVP	Dwight Howard (ORL): +7.0%
Orlando Magic	83		Comeback	16.4 [114]		LVP	Brad Miller (SAC): -47.4%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07	0.03	0.04	0.00	5	69%	0.15	2	-0.08	3	100%	0.08
Kevin Martin	0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	7	50%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Francisco Garcia	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	6	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Peja Stojakovic	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.06,-0.02,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08	-0.09	0.00	-0.01	16	39%	0.01	3	-0.09	4	100%	0.05
Kenny Thomas	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.04	-0.09	0.01	8	37%	-0.12	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jason Hart	-0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.21,-0.21	-0.04	-0.16	0.00	7	36%	-0.17	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Mike Bibby	-0.23	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.12,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.02,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.24	-0.13	-0.12	-0.01	22	39%	-0.11	4	-0.13	0	0%	0.00
Brad Miller	-0.47	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.16,-0.16,-0.33,-0.41,-0.47,-0.47,-0.47,-0.47	-0.11	-0.35	0.01	16	44%	-0.21	5	-0.26	4	50%	-0.04

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwight Howard	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.03	0.02	13	59%	0.11	1	-0.04	6	83%	0.01
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.04	0.01	17	54%	0.05	3	-0.09	7	86%	0.05
Terence Morris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Travis Diener	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	5	20%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tony Battie	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	-0.00	12	35%	-0.06	1	-0.02	2	50%	0.00
Pat Garrity	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.08	-0.01	-0.00	4	0%	-0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Steve Francis	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.12,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.21,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.2,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.2,-0.24,-0.24,-0.34,-0.38,-0.22,-0.28,-0.27,-0.27,-0.33,-0.12	-0.12	-0.17	0.07	0.01	20	35%	0.05	4	-0.17	12	83%	0.09
DeShawn Stevenson	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.23,-0.15,-0.15,-0.2	-0.20	-0.06	-0.14	0.00	12	46%	-0.01	3	-0.18	4	75%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	20.8	2.5	28.7	16.0	22.2	2.4	33.3	1.8	20.6	148.2
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	1.8	17.8	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +29.7%

ORL +12.4%

SAC -8.1%

ORL +11.5%

ORL +4.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	ORL	NBA	SAC	ORL	NBA
this game	15.7	16.8	15.6	79.6	84.7	104.4
season	15.3	16.4		104.7	104.4
opponent	15.7	15.5		105.9	103.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
SAC	15.1	14.1	15.9	18.4	14.9	15.7
ORL	16.8	15.9	16.9	17.6	16.8	16.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Francisco Garcia	36	36	0.27	-0.77	1.04	0.09	6	-11	17	15.9	15.6	0.30	16.9	16.7	0.22
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	37	37	0.23	-0.73	0.96	0.06	6	-11	17	15.4	15.8	-0.43	16.3	17.0	-0.72
Kevin Martin	42	44	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.10	-3	-2	-1	14.4	16.6	-2.26	15.6	17.7	-2.11
Jason Hart	51	49	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.29	0	-5	5	16.7	14.5	2.19	17.7	15.9	1.76
Kenny Thomas	73	73	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.29	-4	-1	-3	15.7	15.5	0.21	16.9	16.3	0.67
Mike Bibby	88	89	-0.54	0.04	-0.59	-0.40	-5	0	-5	15.9	13.4	2.53	16.8	16.7	0.12
Peja Stojakovic	77	76	-0.75	0.25	-1.01	-0.37	-13	8	-21	15.3	17.0	-1.75	16.8	16.7	0.12
Brad Miller	86	86	-0.82	0.32	-1.15	-0.47	-12	7	-19	15.7	15.2	0.58	16.8	16.4	0.41

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Steve Francis	85	85	0.79	-0.29	1.09	0.38	14	-9	23	16.7	17.5	-0.88	15.4	17.2	-1.80
Dwight Howard	87	86	0.71	-0.21	0.91	0.35	12	-7	19	16.8	16.8	-0.05	15.4	17.4	-1.99
Hedo Turkoglu	86	88	0.70	-0.20	0.90	0.35	12	-7	19	16.6	17.7	-1.11	16.1	12.3	3.76
Tony Battie	81	83	0.58	-0.08	0.67	0.41	6	-1	7	17.0	15.6	1.37	15.5	16.5	-0.94
DeShawn Stevenson	84	83	0.16	0.34	-0.17	0.22	-2	7	-9	17.0	15.3	1.74	15.4	17.2	-1.80
Travis Diener	31	31	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.06	-1	6	-7	16.7	16.8	-0.05	17.2	15.0	2.18
Terence Morris	9	7	-0.22	0.72	-0.94	0.07	-10	15	-25	15.1	16.9	-1.83	10.4	16.1	-5.65
Pat Garrity	27	27	-0.26	0.76	-1.01	-0.08	-6	11	-17	16.7	16.8	-0.10	16.9	15.2	1.68

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.47,0.4,0.43,0.35,0.25,0.26,0.29,0.33,0.23,0.22,0.2,0.26,0.26,0.28,0.39,0.36,0.29,0.32,0.31,0.37,0.29,0.32,0.38,0.43,0.29,0.24,0.23,0.21,0.19,0.17,0.24,0.37,0.15,0.09,0.46,0.39,0.46,0.78,0.83,1
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 100, CHA 108	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.48,0.46,0.47,0.51,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.4,0.43,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.3,0.21,0.29,0.33,0.33,0.3,0.25,0.19,0.18,0.22,0.22,0.24,0.35,0.38,0.34,0.31,0.3,0.36,0.26,0.13,0.12,0.17,0.09,0.17,0.29,0.1,0.31,0.55,0.33,0.04,0.54,0.55,0.64,0.85,0.92,1	90.8%
NYK 88, POR 94	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.61,0.63,0.62,0.59,0.61,0.55,0.49,0.51,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.32,0.31,0.26,0.27,0.27,0.31,0.34,0.28,0.25,0.2,0.19,0.12,0.11,0.17,0.24,0.23,0.41,0.48,0.37,0.33,0.29,0.26,0.23,0.21,0.21,0.19,0.14,0.2,0.17,0.1,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.54,0.46,0.45,0.55,0.73,1	89.5%
VAN 104, LAC 110	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.42,0.47,0.53,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.6,0.62,0.53,0.47,0.45,0.37,0.36,0.31,0.29,0.33,0.39,0.5,0.49,0.37,0.28,0.3,0.27,0.29,0.2,0.25,0.37,0.37,0.28,0.34,0.3,0.25,0.25,0.19,0.21,0.24,0.07,0.03,0.07,0.24,0.15,0.54,0.61,0.63,0.9,0.99,1	89.2%