NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Utah Jazz	83		Excitement	2.4 [1281]		MVP	Carmelo Anthony (DEN): +9.2%
Denver Nuggets	113		Comeback	1.0 [1234]		LVP	Mehmet Okur (UTA): -16.6%

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Devin Brown	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.18	0.00	0.13	13	74%	0.05	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.00
Kris Humphries	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.01	9	44%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matt Harpring	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Robert Whaley	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	5	42%	0.00	1	-0.00	2	50%	0.00
Andre Owens	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.05	0.00	-0.05	3	30%	-0.00	1	-0.00	4	25%	-0.00
Milt Palacio	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	8	50%	0.01	3	-0.02	2	50%	-0.00
Keith McLeod	-0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	4	40%	-0.01	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.01
Deron Williams	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	6	31%	-0.04	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Andrei Kirilenko	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.06	0.00	-0.02	15	34%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Gordan Giricek	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.06	-0.00	-0.02	8	37%	-0.01	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Greg Ostertag	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.00	2	50%	-0.00	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Mehmet Okur	-0.17	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.20	-0.00	-0.04	11	21%	-0.08	5	-0.08	2	50%	-0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Carmelo Anthony	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.13	0.00	0.04	22	57%	0.09	0	0.00	10	90%	0.01
Greg Buckner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.09	0.00	0.01	5	79%	0.09	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Andre Miller	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.00	9	59%	0.05	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Earl Boykins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.07	0.01	0.06	6	83%	0.02	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kenyon Martin	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.01	13	50%	0.03	1	-0.01	6	67%	0.01
Linas Kleiza	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.05	0.00	0.04	6	62%	0.01	1	-0.00	4	50%	-0.01
DerMarr Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.01	4	50%	0.00	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Julius Hodge	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	4	50%	0.00	2	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Francisco Elson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Earl Watson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	0.00	0.02	4	67%	-0.01	2	-0.01	4	75%	-0.00
Eduardo Najera	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	4	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.4	2.3	29.4	15.5	25.8	1.8	28.2	127.3
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +28.7%

DEN +8.3%

UTA -3.5%

DEN +15.5%

DEN +1.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	UTA	DEN	NBA	UTA	DEN	NBA
this game	18.1	13.5	15.6	92.2	121.5	104.4
season	17.0	14.4		101.7	103.5
opponent	15.9	15.0		103.5	104.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
UTA	19.8	17.0	20.3	15.8	18.1
DEN	12.3	12.5	15.0	14.2	13.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andre Owens	28	28	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	0.11	-4	-26	22	16.4	18.8	-2.45	14.2	13.2	1.01
Gordan Giricek	26	25	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	0.06	-6	-24	18	19.3	17.6	1.68	11.8	14.1	-2.29
Kris Humphries	46	46	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	0.11	-8	-22	14	16.7	19.6	-2.92	14.5	12.4	2.12
Milt Palacio	32	34	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	0.26	-13	-17	4	18.8	17.7	1.14	13.6	13.4	0.18
Greg Ostertag	28	29	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	0.16	-11	-19	8	18.8	17.8	1.03	12.3	14.0	-1.74
Deron Williams	35	36	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	0.01	-7	-23	16	15.4	19.8	-4.43	13.4	13.5	-0.05
Matt Harpring	15	17	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	0.06	-9	-21	12	17.5	18.2	-0.73	14.9	13.1	1.80
Robert Whaley	34	36	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	0.25	-16	-14	-2	18.9	17.6	1.39	14.4	12.9	1.45
Keith McLeod	45	45	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	0.16	-14	-16	2	19.3	16.9	2.42	12.6	14.3	-1.65
Mehmet Okur	49	52	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	0.18	-16	-14	-2	19.3	16.6	2.70	12.5	14.7	-2.12
Devin Brown	53	57	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	0.24	-19	-11	-8	17.3	19.2	-1.84	14.8	11.4	3.36
Andrei Kirilenko	59	60	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	0.30	-27	-3	-24	18.7	16.8	1.89	12.8	14.7	-1.85

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eduardo Najera	51	49	0.43	0.07	0.36	-0.27	24	6	18	13.0	14.0	-1.05	17.6	18.6	-1.02
Earl Watson	49	48	0.32	0.18	0.15	-0.20	18	12	6	12.6	14.4	-1.78	18.9	17.2	1.66
Andre Miller	51	51	0.30	0.20	0.11	-0.17	16	14	2	12.3	14.9	-2.61	18.8	17.2	1.63
Carmelo Anthony	63	61	0.30	0.20	0.09	-0.20	17	13	4	13.5	13.4	0.06	19.1	15.9	3.17
Kenyon Martin	52	52	0.28	0.22	0.06	-0.16	15	15	0	13.8	13.0	0.85	19.3	16.4	2.91
Greg Buckner	49	47	0.27	0.23	0.04	-0.23	17	13	4	15.2	11.6	3.62	17.0	19.3	-2.34
Francisco Elson	35	34	0.26	0.24	0.02	-0.18	15	15	0	13.4	13.5	-0.12	19.9	16.9	2.99
Earl Boykins	45	42	0.17	0.33	-0.15	-0.18	12	18	-6	14.4	12.6	1.75	17.2	18.9	-1.66
Linas Kleiza	38	35	0.16	0.34	-0.17	-0.19	12	18	-6	13.3	13.6	-0.36	16.3	19.2	-2.89
DerMarr Johnson	18	17	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.09	3	27	-24	13.1	13.6	-0.45	15.5	18.7	-3.21
Julius Hodge	14	14	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.03	1	29	-28	13.3	13.5	-0.22	14.9	18.7	-3.73

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.61,0.57,0.55,0.6,0.63,0.65,0.71,0.65,0.7,0.78,0.82,0.85,0.83,0.86,0.88,0.87,0.9,0.91,0.94,0.96,0.93,0.91,0.94,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 75, SAS 91	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.59,0.55,0.54,0.58,0.59,0.59,0.61,0.67,0.69,0.71,0.66,0.74,0.73,0.77,0.81,0.83,0.85,0.88,0.87,0.89,0.93,0.95,0.96,0.94,0.91,0.92,0.93,0.96,0.96,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.5%
UTA 84, PHX 106	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.61,0.63,0.66,0.7,0.7,0.76,0.8,0.84,0.87,0.87,0.89,0.86,0.82,0.89,0.93,0.94,0.94,0.92,0.91,0.94,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.96,0.94,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.4%
PHI 78, BOS 102	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.56,0.62,0.61,0.61,0.63,0.65,0.66,0.65,0.7,0.74,0.79,0.84,0.83,0.82,0.84,0.82,0.86,0.87,0.89,0.93,0.91,0.9,0.94,0.96,0.94,0.92,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.3%