NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	100		Excitement	5.5 [727]		MVP	Mike Bibby (SAC): +33.2%
Sacramento Kings	104		Comeback	1.5 [961]		LVP	Grant Hill (ORL): -16.4%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jameer Nelson	0.14	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14	0.17	0.01	0.04	19	71%	0.18	2	-0.04	3	100%	0.02
Dwight Howard	0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.07	0.03	0.01	14	56%	0.10	1	-0.01	4	50%	-0.01
Pat Garrity	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	0.00	0.01	2	100%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,0.01	-0.02	0.03	0.01	11	41%	0.01	0	0.00	5	80%	0.01
Travis Diener	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01	0.02	0.01	0.04	7	57%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kelvin Cato	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	2	33%	-0.01	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.03
Tony Battie	-0.10	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.07	-0.02	0.01	9	30%	-0.06	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
DeShawn Stevenson	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.11,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.07	-0.03	0.01	9	22%	-0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Grant Hill	-0.16	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.06	-0.08	0.02	17	47%	-0.05	4	-0.12	4	50%	-0.02

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike Bibby	0,0,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.22,0.25,0.22,0.24,0.23,0.26,0.26,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.26,0.26,0.34,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33	0.33	0.26	0.09	0.02	23	72%	0.38	2	-0.05	12	92%	0.03
Kevin Martin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.13	0.13	0.11	0.04	0.02	9	73%	0.19	2	-0.06	12	92%	0.07
Brad Miller	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.12	0.12	0.08	0.06	0.02	11	66%	0.17	2	-0.05	10	100%	0.06
Brian Skinner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Hart	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Corliss Williamson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kenny Thomas	0,0,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	11	46%	-0.01	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.00
Francisco Garcia	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.16	-0.16	-0.14	-0.04	-0.02	7	22%	-0.07	3	-0.08	4	25%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.6	2.5	28.3	16.5	24.5	2.4	40.2	139.1
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +37.0%

SAC +19.8%

ORL -3.3%

ORL -4.9%

SAC +1.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	SAC	NBA	ORL	SAC	NBA
this game	16.1	15.3	15.6	108.7	114.3	104.4
season	16.4	15.3		104.4	104.7
opponent	15.5	15.7		103.8	105.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	19.0	15.7	17.9	12.7	16.1
SAC	13.1	16.4	17.2	15.0	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Pat Garrity	23	21	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	-0.08	2	-6	8	13.9	16.9	-3.01	17.0	14.8	2.16
Kelvin Cato	11	12	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	0.03	-5	1	-6	13.6	16.5	-2.83	12.1	15.8	-3.75
Travis Diener	42	41	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.35	6	-10	16	14.2	17.8	-3.57	14.7	15.9	-1.24
Hedo Turkoglu	59	59	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.34	4	-8	12	14.6	18.9	-4.38	15.6	14.8	0.77
Tony Battie	53	53	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.10	-7	3	-10	18.9	12.4	6.50	16.2	14.1	2.17
DeShawn Stevenson	50	50	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.25	-3	-1	-2	16.9	15.3	1.60	14.0	17.0	-3.06
Dwight Howard	84	83	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.44	1	-5	6	16.4	13.6	2.74	15.4	14.4	1.06
Jameer Nelson	67	66	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.26	-5	1	-6	16.0	16.6	-0.59	15.5	14.8	0.75
Grant Hill	71	70	-0.51	0.01	-0.53	-0.13	-13	9	-22	17.0	13.2	3.81	15.6	14.6	1.00

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brad Miller	82	82	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.40	4	0	4	15.0	18.2	-3.20	16.1	16.2	-0.08
Francisco Garcia	91	92	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.38	4	0	4	15.3	0.0	15.34	16.1	0.0	16.13
Mike Bibby	87	88	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.38	4	0	4	15.5	11.0	4.54	16.2	14.5	1.70
Kevin Martin	83	83	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.43	-4	8	-12	15.2	16.9	-1.68	16.1	16.8	-0.72
Kenny Thomas	71	73	0.27	0.23	0.05	0.42	-5	9	-14	15.8	13.6	2.17	16.0	16.6	-0.57
Corliss Williamson	20	19	0.23	0.27	-0.05	-0.04	9	-5	14	13.6	15.8	-2.17	16.6	16.0	0.57
Jason Hart	12	13	0.19	0.31	-0.12	-0.05	8	-4	12	14.9	15.4	-0.49	16.1	16.1	-0.06
Brian Skinner	9	10	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	-0.02	0	4	-4	18.2	15.0	3.20	16.2	16.1	0.08

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.44,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.67,0.65,0.56,0.56,0.46,0.54,0.59,0.58,0.66,0.71,0.72,0.7,0.76,0.74,0.68,0.78,0.85,0.92,0.9,0.92,0.92,0.96,0.95,0.97,0.92,0.91,0.83,0.92,0.89,0.99,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 85, NOH 92	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.4,0.44,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.58,0.61,0.66,0.59,0.56,0.59,0.61,0.63,0.57,0.63,0.69,0.73,0.73,0.71,0.71,0.82,0.85,0.89,0.87,0.87,0.9,0.91,0.96,0.96,0.94,0.95,0.99,0.99,0.97,0.97,0.99,1	94.7%
IND 100, BOS 109	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.62,0.65,0.63,0.49,0.49,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.7,0.71,0.79,0.75,0.76,0.76,0.82,0.77,0.82,0.91,0.88,0.85,0.95,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.94,0.84,0.9,0.92,0.99,0.99,1,1	94.7%
PHX 118, SAC 126	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.4,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.61,0.56,0.59,0.59,0.58,0.56,0.67,0.67,0.69,0.74,0.69,0.81,0.76,0.68,0.68,0.86,0.9,0.91,0.89,0.85,0.87,0.9,0.91,0.91,0.97,0.91,0.94,0.86,0.9,0.94,0.99,1	94.5%