NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	104		Excitement	8.6 [184]		MVP	Paul Pierce (BOS): +57.5%
Boston Celtics	102		Comeback	2.5 [241]		LVP	Mark Blount (BOS): -16.4%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jerry Stackhouse	0.34	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.12,0.15,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.1,0.04,0.34	0.05	0.28	-0.01	13	65%	0.46	3	-0.13	5	100%	0.03
Jason Terry	0.32	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.31,0.29,0.29,0.35,0.35,0.34,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32	0.21	0.11	0.01	17	77%	0.38	2	-0.06	5	100%	0.03
Dirk Nowitzki	0.24	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.24	0.11	0.14	0.01	16	60%	0.28	1	-0.04	11	64%	-0.04
Keith Van Horn	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.04,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	-0.03	0.12	-0.01	10	50%	0.17	3	-0.08	4	75%	-0.00
DeSagana Diop	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	75%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Darrell Armstrong	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DJ Mbenga	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Adrian Griffin	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.05,-0.05	-0.01	-0.04	0.00	3	33%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Howard	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	8	33%	-0.04	1	-0.01	5	100%	0.03
Erick Dampier	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.04	0.00	1	17%	-0.06	1	-0.03	4	25%	-0.05
Devin Harris	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.08	-0.04	-0.00	5	19%	-0.12	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.05

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Paul Pierce	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.15,0.18,0.21,0.24,0.24,0.18,0.14,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.26,0.57	0.57	0.19	0.39	0.00	16	73%	0.65	2	-0.07	12	100%	0.08
Kendrick Perkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.01	-0.00	4	62%	0.06	0	0.00	5	80%	0.01
Tony Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.01	0.01	8	55%	0.04	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.02
Ricky Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.05	0.02	0.03	13	59%	0.06	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.00
Brian Scalabrine	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Justin Reed	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Banks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.03	-0.00	8	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Orien Greene	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Delonte West	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	0.02	7	57%	0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Raef LaFrentz	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	4	50%	-0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Al Jefferson	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.07	-0.04	0.00	7	19%	-0.12	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Mark Blount	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.16	-0.16	-0.05	-0.11	0.00	12	41%	-0.11	2	-0.05	5	40%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	31.7	2.4	33.7	16.3	27.4	2.5	31.2	145.2
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +56.4%

BOS -10.7%

DAL +27.7%

BOS -26.8%

DAL +3.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	BOS	NBA	DAL	BOS	NBA
this game	17.4	14.3	15.6	114.3	112.1	104.4
season	16.4	14.8		109.0	103.3
opponent	15.8	15.6		104.8	102.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	15.4	18.4	16.6	19.4	17.4
BOS	13.9	13.7	16.1	13.4	14.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Erick Dampier	38	38	0.72	-0.22	0.94	0.60	4	-2	6	18.9	16.3	2.62	14.8	13.9	0.92
Dirk Nowitzki	62	61	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.38	5	-3	8	17.9	16.2	1.69	14.3	14.2	0.13
Jason Terry	77	78	0.43	0.07	0.37	0.38	2	0	2	17.5	16.9	0.55	14.6	12.5	2.09
Keith Van Horn	45	46	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.26	4	-2	6	16.7	18.1	-1.35	14.3	14.2	0.15
Jerry Stackhouse	56	56	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.23	5	-3	8	16.3	19.1	-2.84	13.6	15.3	-1.72
DeSagana Diop	45	44	0.19	0.31	-0.11	0.14	2	0	2	16.0	18.8	-2.80	14.0	14.5	-0.45
Darrell Armstrong	1	1	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.05	1	1	0	40.0	17.1	22.86	1.0	14.4	-13.40
Devin Harris	37	37	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.29	-10	12	-22	16.7	17.9	-1.12	13.6	14.7	-1.15
Adrian Griffin	47	47	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	-0.34	10	-8	18	17.0	17.8	-0.82	15.0	13.4	1.59
DJ Mbenga	2	2	-0.07	0.57	-0.63	0.02	-3	5	-8	29.0	17.1	11.87	12.0	14.3	-2.30
Josh Howard	45	45	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	0.20	-10	12	-22	18.6	16.2	2.43	14.4	14.2	0.20

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Raef LaFrentz	48	48	0.04	-0.54	0.58	0.24	-7	5	-12	14.9	13.5	1.36	17.5	17.3	0.27
Brian Scalabrine	1	1	0.02	-0.52	0.55	-0.03	2	-4	6	20.0	14.2	5.81	5.0	17.5	-12.53
Justin Reed	0	2	0.02	-0.52	0.53	0.02	0	-2	2	0.0	14.3	-14.25	3.0	17.7	-14.72
Marcus Banks	27	28	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.09	2	-4	6	15.4	13.8	1.64	18.4	16.9	1.49
Al Jefferson	28	28	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	0.04	-6	4	-10	15.8	13.6	2.21	18.0	17.1	0.82
Mark Blount	60	60	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.47	8	-10	18	13.8	15.1	-1.28	17.7	16.7	1.04
Kendrick Perkins	34	35	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.14	-4	2	-6	14.4	14.1	0.30	16.1	18.2	-2.04
Delonte West	46	46	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.28	0	-2	2	13.0	15.6	-2.58	17.4	17.4	0.08
Orien Greene	19	17	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.11	-6	4	-10	15.0	14.1	0.94	15.6	17.8	-2.22
Ricky Davis	74	73	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.42	2	-4	6	14.4	13.8	0.53	18.1	14.6	3.54
Paul Pierce	70	70	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.32	-5	3	-8	13.5	16.7	-3.20	17.4	17.5	-0.10
Tony Allen	48	47	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.65	4	-6	10	14.2	14.3	-0.09	17.2	17.6	-0.33

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.49,0.53,0.62,0.67,0.7,0.64,0.56,0.67,0.69,0.56,0.51,0.62,0.54,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.35,0.38,0.26,0.34,0.4,0.3,0.26,0.3,0.28,0.32,0.26,0.09,0.04,0.07,0.15,0.1,0.42,0
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 87, ATL 85	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.62,0.68,0.66,0.62,0.66,0.69,0.71,0.69,0.7,0.7,0.61,0.67,0.7,0.67,0.58,0.57,0.55,0.61,0.56,0.58,0.52,0.45,0.45,0.36,0.4,0.4,0.34,0.22,0.34,0.2,0.19,0.3,0.19,0.22,0.14,0.22,0.32,0.27,0	91.7%
CLE 93, ATL 79	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.48,0.51,0.47,0.53,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.55,0.6,0.63,0.63,0.61,0.59,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.59,0.63,0.64,0.55,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.41,0.3,0.3,0.36,0.34,0.31,0.21,0.17,0.12,0.17,0.07,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.01,0,0	91.3%
CHI 103, OKC 96	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.6,0.61,0.6,0.63,0.65,0.61,0.65,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.59,0.59,0.54,0.53,0.63,0.6,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.42,0.42,0.38,0.34,0.37,0.48,0.4,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.2,0.23,0.17,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.01,0,0.04,0	91.2%