NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	103		Excitement	6.4 [540]		MVP	Derrick Rose (CHI): +20.9%
Oklahoma City Thunder	96		Comeback	1.9 [448]		LVP	Russell Westbrook (OKC): -14.7%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Derrick Rose	0.21	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.22,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.08	0.12	-0.02	14	83%	0.33	6	-0.12	2	50%	-0.01
John Salmons	0.07	0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.14,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	-0.00	-0.01	15	61%	0.15	2	-0.07	3	100%	0.02
Kirk Hinrich	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	-0.00	0.07	-0.00	7	57%	0.13	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Brad Miller	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.07,0.07	0.02	0.02	-0.03	9	52%	0.09	1	-0.02	9	67%	0.01
Joakim Noah	0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.00	4	50%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tim Thomas	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Ben Gordon	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.04	17	49%	0.05	4	-0.11	3	67%	-0.01
Tyrus Thomas	-0.08	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	0.00	12	43%	-0.04	3	-0.05	4	100%	0.01

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nick Collison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.07	0.02	0.01	9	67%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Green	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.01	0.06	-0.00	15	53%	0.14	3	-0.07	4	50%	-0.01
Malik Rose	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.00	2	100%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Weaver	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Durant	0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01	0.01	0.05	-0.03	0.01	21	55%	0.08	3	-0.07	9	89%	0.03
Chucky Atkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.00	5	40%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Nenad Krstic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	6	50%	0.01	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Thabo Sefolosha	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.04	-0.04	0.01	7	37%	-0.05	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Russell Westbrook	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.18,-0.18,-0.15	-0.15	-0.10	-0.07	-0.02	16	42%	-0.01	4	-0.14	4	75%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.8	2.6	27.8	15.8	22.2	2.6	41.0	137.9
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +45.9%

OKC -2.2%

CHI +19.7%

OKC -14.5%

CHI +1.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	OKC	NBA	CHI	OKC	NBA
this game	15.7	15.1	15.5	109.6	103.2	106.4
season	14.8	14.9		106.3	100.5
opponent	15.1	15.7		106.6	107.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	17.4	13.8	16.6	15.6	15.7
OKC	15.4	13.9	16.1	15.0	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Derrick Rose	81	81	0.56	-0.06	0.61	0.23	11	-4	15	15.7	15.9	-0.21	14.9	16.2	-1.28
John Salmons	77	77	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.23	6	1	5	16.0	14.5	1.56	14.5	17.6	-3.11
Brad Miller	56	54	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.24	5	2	3	15.2	16.5	-1.31	15.6	14.3	1.33
Joakim Noah	67	70	0.31	0.19	0.11	0.10	7	0	7	15.9	15.3	0.63	14.8	15.9	-1.08
Ben Gordon	83	81	0.30	0.20	0.11	0.33	-1	8	-9	16.2	12.1	4.14	15.2	14.2	1.02
Tyrus Thomas	55	54	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.29	0	7	-7	16.3	15.0	1.23	14.6	15.6	-0.97
Kirk Hinrich	41	40	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.08	5	2	3	14.3	16.9	-2.58	16.1	14.2	1.92
Tim Thomas	10	8	0.02	0.48	-0.46	-0.04	2	5	-3	14.7	15.9	-1.17	16.4	14.9	1.45

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kyle Weaver	11	12	0.01	-0.51	0.51	0.01	0	-7	7	16.5	14.9	1.69	13.0	16.1	-3.15
Malik Rose	16	16	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	0.02	-1	-6	5	16.1	14.8	1.22	11.9	16.5	-4.66
Nenad Krstic	48	47	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.07	-4	-3	-1	15.3	14.8	0.58	16.7	14.7	2.00
Chucky Atkins	35	35	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.11	-4	-3	-1	16.0	14.5	1.56	14.4	16.5	-2.14
Thabo Sefolosha	67	67	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.25	-4	-3	-1	14.4	16.7	-2.22	16.4	14.0	2.40
Nick Collison	52	53	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.29	-3	-4	1	15.2	14.9	0.23	15.2	16.5	-1.36
Russell Westbrook	73	74	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.23	-6	-1	-5	14.9	15.5	-0.57	16.2	14.0	2.15
Jeff Green	81	82	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.28	-6	-1	-5	15.0	15.4	-0.42	16.0	13.7	2.29
Kevin Durant	82	84	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.26	-7	0	-7	14.7	17.8	-3.14	16.0	13.5	2.51

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.6,0.61,0.6,0.63,0.65,0.61,0.65,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.59,0.59,0.54,0.53,0.63,0.6,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.42,0.42,0.38,0.34,0.37,0.48,0.4,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.2,0.23,0.17,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.01,0,0.04,0
Game		Similarity Score
OKC 99, DAL 95	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.55,0.57,0.54,0.6,0.6,0.65,0.7,0.6,0.53,0.6,0.61,0.56,0.58,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.61,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.51,0.45,0.4,0.38,0.32,0.25,0.37,0.4,0.28,0.38,0.38,0.3,0.21,0.12,0.08,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0	94.2%
POR 125, LAC 104	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.48,0.52,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.63,0.63,0.63,0.53,0.65,0.64,0.64,0.62,0.56,0.63,0.59,0.68,0.66,0.58,0.56,0.61,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.58,0.61,0.48,0.45,0.38,0.28,0.34,0.33,0.44,0.46,0.38,0.38,0.33,0.32,0.14,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0	94.1%
SAS 99, OKC 89	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.47,0.44,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.61,0.6,0.62,0.65,0.64,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.65,0.66,0.61,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.48,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.45,0.45,0.38,0.37,0.37,0.32,0.38,0.26,0.38,0.33,0.19,0.21,0.11,0.09,0.05,0.06,0.01,0,0	94.1%