NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	86		Excitement	7.1 [428]		MVP	Robert Horry (SAS): +29.0%
Phoenix Suns	91		Comeback	1.7 [847]		LVP	Tony Parker (SAS): -22.7%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Robert Horry	0.29	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.24,0.31,0.31,0.29,0.29,0.29	0.10	0.15	-0.03	11	68%	0.29	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.01	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	11	59%	0.13	4	-0.12	10	70%	-0.04
Manu Ginobili	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,0,0	0.06	-0.04	0.01	12	59%	0.02	1	-0.01	8	75%	0.00
Fabricio Oberto	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nick Van Exel	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	7	36%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Finley	-0.05	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	0.01	6	38%	-0.05	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Nazr Mohammed	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Brent Barry	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	6	33%	-0.04	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Rasho Nesterovic	-0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.02	-0.02	3	12%	-0.05	3	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Bruce Bowen	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.08	-0.04	-0.00	4	0%	-0.08	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	-0.23	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.12,-0.15,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.23,-0.23	-0.11	-0.12	0.00	19	47%	-0.03	6	-0.20	0	0%	0.00

Phoenix Suns
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shawn Marion	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.16,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.21	0.03	0.17	-0.01	16	54%	0.25	2	-0.05	5	80%	0.02
Boris Diaw	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.09	0.04	-0.00	12	60%	0.17	1	-0.04	6	100%	0.04
Steve Nash	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.12	0.12	-0.00	0.12	-0.01	14	65%	0.29	6	-0.16	6	67%	0.01
James Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.05	0.04	-0.01	8	62%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kurt Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.05	0.00	0.02	7	67%	0.06	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Raja Bell	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.03,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.08	0.03	-0.06	7	35%	0.07	2	-0.06	6	50%	-0.02
Eddie House	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.06	-0.05	-0.00	4	20%	-0.08	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.2	2.6	30.0	14.6	28.2	3.6	38.2	144.4
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

PHX +47.5%

PHX +24.7%

SAS -21.4%

PHX +5.2%

SAS -6.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	PHX	NBA	SAS	PHX	NBA
this game	17.7	13.5	15.6	93.5	97.8	104.4
season	16.3	13.8		106.0	110.2
opponent	16.1	15.6		105.8	99.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	17.4	18.5	20.7	14.8	17.7
PHX	13.1	13.6	13.9	13.4	13.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brent Barry	26	25	0.06	-0.56	0.61	-0.00	2	-7	9	16.9	18.0	-1.03	13.8	13.4	0.42
Fabricio Oberto	5	4	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	-0.00	0	-5	5	21.4	17.4	3.95	15.2	13.4	1.83
Michael Finley	45	49	-0.04	-0.46	0.43	-0.15	4	-9	13	18.2	17.1	1.09	13.2	13.8	-0.61
Nick Van Exel	33	32	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.14	2	-7	9	16.0	18.6	-2.55	13.1	13.7	-0.66
Rasho Nesterovic	26	29	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.00	-4	-1	-3	18.3	17.4	0.90	15.2	12.7	2.44
Nazr Mohammed	16	17	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.02	-8	3	-11	18.6	17.5	1.16	12.4	13.7	-1.40
Tim Duncan	76	78	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.37	3	-8	11	17.5	18.6	-1.16	13.4	13.8	-0.36
Robert Horry	61	58	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.31	-1	-4	3	17.1	18.8	-1.72	12.9	14.4	-1.45
Bruce Bowen	59	59	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.25	-6	1	-7	17.9	17.3	0.56	14.2	12.2	1.99
Tony Parker	59	61	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.24	-7	2	-9	18.6	16.0	2.55	13.7	13.1	0.66
Manu Ginobili	54	53	-0.58	0.08	-0.65	-0.28	-10	5	-15	17.3	18.1	-0.80	12.8	14.4	-1.59

Phoenix Suns
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Steve Nash	77	76	0.72	-0.22	0.94	0.40	11	-6	17	13.3	14.4	-1.14	17.6	18.1	-0.48
Shawn Marion	83	83	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.33	7	-2	9	13.1	17.0	-3.93	17.6	18.7	-1.11
Kurt Thomas	64	62	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.44	3	2	1	14.5	11.2	3.27	18.4	16.2	2.22
Raja Bell	87	86	0.52	-0.02	0.53	0.34	6	-1	7	13.3	16.0	-2.68	17.9	14.8	3.03
James Jones	59	58	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.37	1	4	-3	14.3	12.2	2.08	16.5	19.6	-3.05
Boris Diaw	66	66	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	-0.05	1	4	-3	12.6	15.7	-3.16	17.8	17.2	0.60
Eddie House	29	29	-0.19	0.69	-0.87	-0.07	-4	9	-13	14.0	13.2	0.78	17.9	17.5	0.39

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.38,0.39,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.6,0.63,0.62,0.58,0.54,0.56,0.61,0.54,0.61,0.58,0.58,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.64,0.58,0.59,0.55,0.69,0.67,0.72,0.7,0.7,0.63,0.72,0.53,0.53,0.66,0.53,0.62,0.78,0.99,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
IND 97, TOR 105	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.44,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.55,0.53,0.6,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.47,0.5,0.56,0.61,0.56,0.61,0.52,0.58,0.54,0.51,0.5,0.57,0.6,0.64,0.73,0.79,0.68,0.74,0.76,0.7,0.67,0.72,0.74,0.7,0.67,0.67,0.58,0.53,0.6,0.66,0.61,0.79,0.98,1,1	92.9%
PHX 85, POR 95	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.52,0.47,0.46,0.44,0.51,0.58,0.62,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.53,0.6,0.63,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.42,0.39,0.41,0.5,0.51,0.6,0.61,0.58,0.58,0.52,0.59,0.62,0.66,0.6,0.68,0.7,0.62,0.67,0.52,0.42,0.53,0.58,0.67,0.68,0.84,0.99,1,1	92.9%
NOK 100, SAC 110	0.5,0.49,0.44,0.43,0.45,0.46,0.54,0.57,0.55,0.51,0.57,0.64,0.68,0.65,0.58,0.56,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.51,0.54,0.64,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.62,0.72,0.74,0.68,0.5,0.62,0.53,0.58,0.47,0.47,0.59,0.62,0.75,0.84,0.98,1,1	92.6%