NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Seattle SuperSonics	101		Excitement	6.8 [480]		MVP	Ray Allen (SEA): +14.2%
Chicago Bulls	97		Comeback	1.6 [410]		LVP	Damien Wilkins (SEA): -7.8%

Seattle SuperSonics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ray Allen	0.14	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.11	0.04	0.01	13	67%	0.17	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Rashard Lewis	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.14	0.03	0.09	-0.02	14	54%	0.16	2	-0.02	11	73%	-0.02
Luke Ridnour	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03	0.05	0.00	0.02	5	79%	0.10	3	-0.06	9	100%	0.04
Nick Collison	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.01	5	56%	0.04	1	-0.03	6	50%	-0.04
Robert Swift	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vladimir Radmanovic	-0.01	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	0.03	0.00	15	47%	0.09	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Johan Petro	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	6	50%	-0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Ronald Murray	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.09	0.04	-0.01	16	39%	0.03	3	-0.08	4	75%	0.00
Damien Wilkins	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ben Gordon	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.06	0.06	0.06	0.01	0.01	18	55%	0.08	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Jannero Pargo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.01	0.00	4	62%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darius Songaila	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	0.03	0.04	12	62%	0.11	3	-0.08	8	87%	0.03
Eric Piatkowski	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Allen	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luol Deng	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	7	43%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andres Nocioni	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	5	30%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Othella Harrington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.01	6	60%	0.06	3	-0.09	8	50%	-0.06
Kirk Hinrich	0,0,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.04	-0.00	15	47%	0.02	2	-0.07	4	100%	0.02
Eddie Basden	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	6	50%	0.02	2	-0.08	4	50%	-0.04
Michael Sweetney	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Chris Duhon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	0.00	0.00	5	25%	-0.05	1	-0.03	6	67%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.6	1.8	31.2	15.5	24.5	1.6	42.0	141.2
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SEA +21.1%

SEA +12.2%

SEA +1.4%

SEA +2.8%

SEA +12.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SEA	CHI	NBA	SEA	CHI	NBA
this game	15.1	13.9	15.6	101.0	98.0	104.4
season	15.0	14.4		108.9	102.6
opponent	16.1	15.8		102.1	112.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SEA	16.6	13.2	15.6	15.0	15.1
CHI	16.1	14.0	13.2	12.6	13.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Seattle SuperSonics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nick Collison	46	47	0.50	-0.00	0.50	0.27	8	-4	12	16.0	14.2	1.84	13.8	14.0	-0.19
Ronald Murray	67	66	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.32	5	-1	6	15.2	14.8	0.44	13.5	14.8	-1.30
Rashard Lewis	82	79	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.37	3	1	2	14.7	16.8	-2.17	13.8	14.0	-0.20
Vladimir Radmanovic	75	73	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.36	3	1	2	13.9	18.5	-4.57	13.4	15.2	-1.82
Luke Ridnour	75	74	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.35	2	2	0	15.0	15.3	-0.31	13.9	14.0	-0.15
Robert Swift	14	14	0.26	0.24	0.03	-0.06	11	-7	18	16.3	14.8	1.44	16.9	13.4	3.54
Ray Allen	58	58	0.12	0.38	-0.25	0.09	1	3	-2	15.0	15.1	-0.16	14.4	13.1	1.31
Damien Wilkins	20	21	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.02	-1	5	-6	16.0	14.8	1.19	13.7	13.9	-0.22
Johan Petro	63	63	-0.16	0.66	-0.81	0.20	-12	16	-28	15.6	14.1	1.54	14.0	13.8	0.17

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eddie Basden	28	30	0.07	-0.57	0.65	-0.19	9	-13	22	14.3	13.7	0.55	17.2	14.1	3.12
Eric Piatkowski	6	7	-0.01	-0.49	0.47	-0.07	2	-6	8	18.3	13.6	4.73	15.6	15.0	0.56
Luol Deng	42	40	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.04	0	-4	4	14.3	13.6	0.77	14.9	15.1	-0.17
Michael Sweetney	21	22	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	-0.01	-1	-3	2	16.0	13.3	2.68	15.1	15.0	0.11
Othella Harrington	49	52	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.39	10	-14	24	13.5	14.3	-0.75	16.0	14.0	2.02
Jannero Pargo	21	20	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.12	-5	1	-6	13.6	14.0	-0.40	15.9	14.8	1.06
Malik Allen	20	19	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	0.03	-10	6	-16	12.5	14.2	-1.74	13.0	15.5	-2.53
Darius Songaila	57	60	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.37	3	-7	10	13.9	13.9	-0.03	15.3	14.6	0.71
Ben Gordon	65	66	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.13	-6	2	-8	14.1	13.4	0.68	14.9	15.3	-0.41
Chris Duhon	82	82	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.30	-4	0	-4	13.6	15.1	-1.41	14.5	17.5	-2.99
Andres Nocioni	21	19	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	0.02	-15	11	-26	15.3	13.5	1.83	14.3	15.2	-0.97
Kirk Hinrich	83	83	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.35	-3	-1	-2	13.0	18.4	-5.43	14.5	17.6	-3.13

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.5,0.57,0.5,0.54,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.6,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.51,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.34,0.46,0.41,0.27,0.2,0.21,0.2,0.2,0.17,0.16,0.11,0.17,0.11,0.13,0.26,0.13,0.15,0.16,0.21,0.28,0.19,0.22,0.19,0.28,0.2,0.11,0.03,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 103, WAS 92	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.55,0.54,0.5,0.44,0.49,0.42,0.38,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.42,0.36,0.33,0.18,0.19,0.14,0.2,0.24,0.21,0.18,0.15,0.21,0.24,0.16,0.15,0.1,0.13,0.18,0.2,0.23,0.17,0.19,0.22,0.15,0.07,0,0,0	95.0%
IND 95, LAL 92	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.57,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.49,0.44,0.57,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.39,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.42,0.33,0.33,0.26,0.18,0.13,0.15,0.19,0.11,0.15,0.13,0.08,0.11,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.18,0.17,0.15,0.17,0.11,0.17,0.14,0.11,0.09,0.08,0	93.6%
NYK 98, PHI 91	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.49,0.5,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.49,0.49,0.56,0.48,0.39,0.44,0.39,0.3,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.15,0.14,0.2,0.15,0.18,0.11,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.18,0.2,0.23,0.31,0.29,0.27,0.19,0.02,0.06,0.04,0	93.6%