NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	99		Excitement	7.1 [422]		MVP	Chris Bosh (TOR): +28.6%
Indiana Pacers	97		Comeback	21.2 [30]		LVP	Jermaine O'Neal (IND): -27.3%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Bosh	0.29	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.29,0.29,0.29	0.09	0.21	0.01	13	59%	0.32	2	-0.03	11	73%	0.01
Mike James	0.13	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.15,-0.03,-0.1,0.12,0.13	-0.04	0.15	-0.02	17	49%	0.30	3	-0.16	5	80%	0.01
Charlie Villanueva	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.12	0.02	0.03	17	66%	0.13	1	-0.02	4	25%	-0.07
Morris Peterson	0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02	0.04	-0.01	0.01	12	62%	0.06	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Eric Williams	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matt Bonner	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0	0.03	-0.03	0.00	4	62%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joey Graham	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	4	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rafael Araujo	-0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Darrick Martin	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jalen Rose	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	11	37%	-0.02	2	-0.04	5	80%	0.01

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Fred Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.13,0.13,0.12	0.12	0.05	0.07	-0.01	15	59%	0.16	2	-0.04	4	75%	-0.00
Jeff Foster	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.08	0.03	0.01	6	83%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Stephen Jackson	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06	0.06	0.06	-0.01	-0.00	15	52%	0.11	1	-0.06	14	86%	0.03
Anthony Johnson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.03	0.05	-0.01	9	45%	0.09	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.00
Austin Croshere	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	0.03	5	43%	-0.03	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.01
Danny Granger	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.05	-0.06	-0.01	7	43%	-0.03	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Sarunas Jasikevicius	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.14	-0.14	-0.10	-0.05	-0.02	6	25%	-0.03	3	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Jermaine O'Neal	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.13,-0.05,-0.05,-0.27,-0.27	-0.27	-0.06	-0.23	-0.02	17	50%	-0.04	4	-0.24	6	67%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.0	1.8	32.0	16.4	28.6	2.3	36.5	141.6
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +24.6%

TOR +14.0%

IND -10.1%

TOR +21.8%

IND -0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	IND	NBA	TOR	IND	NBA
this game	14.5	16.9	15.6	106.5	106.6	104.4
season	15.6	16.0		107.3	102.3
opponent	15.5	15.4		100.8	110.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	15.3	14.6	14.0	14.0	14.5
IND	16.0	16.1	18.1	17.3	16.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Charlie Villanueva	62	59	0.78	-0.28	1.06	0.31	16	-14	30	14.2	14.9	-0.71	17.9	15.0	2.83
Matt Bonner	33	33	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.51	3	-1	4	15.8	13.7	2.05	15.5	17.7	-2.22
Mike James	71	71	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.47	3	-1	4	14.5	14.2	0.37	17.3	15.3	1.95
Chris Bosh	89	86	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.48	2	0	2	14.3	18.2	-3.96	16.7	20.2	-3.53
Morris Peterson	90	88	0.51	-0.01	0.53	0.45	2	0	2	14.4	17.3	-2.97	16.9	15.3	1.59
Eric Williams	23	23	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	-0.01	-1	3	-4	12.7	15.0	-2.35	18.1	16.5	1.63
Darrick Martin	22	20	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	-0.03	-1	3	-4	14.2	14.5	-0.37	15.3	17.3	-1.95
Jalen Rose	51	49	-0.11	0.61	-0.73	-0.17	2	0	2	14.8	14.1	0.71	16.7	17.1	-0.42
Rafael Araujo	12	13	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	0.10	-8	10	-18	15.2	14.3	0.90	16.2	17.0	-0.83
Joey Graham	12	13	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	0.10	-8	10	-18	15.2	14.3	0.90	16.2	17.0	-0.83

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jeff Foster	56	58	0.26	-0.76	1.01	-0.21	16	-18	34	17.5	15.9	1.64	15.7	12.4	3.31
Sarunas Jasikevicius	49	52	0.18	-0.68	0.87	-0.17	12	-14	26	16.8	16.9	-0.11	14.4	14.6	-0.22
Austin Croshere	28	27	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.02	-1	-1	0	18.2	16.3	1.89	13.9	14.7	-0.76
Stephen Jackson	82	82	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.43	-1	-1	0	16.6	19.3	-2.74	14.3	16.0	-1.74
Danny Granger	44	47	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.19	-11	9	-20	17.5	16.3	1.22	14.5	14.4	0.14
Anthony Johnson	68	66	-0.53	0.03	-0.55	-0.35	-6	4	-10	16.5	18.1	-1.63	14.6	14.2	0.34
Jermaine O'Neal	62	64	-0.69	0.19	-0.88	-0.46	-8	6	-14	15.8	19.2	-3.43	14.0	15.5	-1.48
Fred Jones	66	69	-0.70	0.20	-0.91	-0.38	-11	9	-20	17.2	16.0	1.14	14.2	15.1	-0.89

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.6,0.56,0.58,0.63,0.63,0.65,0.63,0.69,0.71,0.68,0.64,0.66,0.67,0.65,0.68,0.7,0.66,0.74,0.69,0.79,0.84,0.78,0.79,0.84,0.89,0.85,0.86,0.84,0.83,0.9,0.94,0.94,0.95,0.85,0.85,0.82,0.71,0.77,0.74,0.65,0.78,0.75,0.78,0.57,0.08,0
Game		Similarity Score
IND 106, SAC 100	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.56,0.59,0.61,0.65,0.62,0.65,0.73,0.75,0.79,0.71,0.68,0.67,0.71,0.68,0.68,0.78,0.84,0.88,0.9,0.94,0.92,0.88,0.89,0.89,0.89,0.89,0.92,0.95,0.91,0.89,0.93,0.81,0.82,0.79,0.83,0.63,0.79,0.76,0.67,0.75,0.71,0.55,0.16,0	93.4%
MIN 82, HOU 79	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.61,0.65,0.7,0.66,0.67,0.72,0.77,0.75,0.73,0.74,0.79,0.87,0.87,0.86,0.84,0.78,0.76,0.82,0.89,0.89,0.9,0.89,0.83,0.86,0.88,0.88,0.9,0.81,0.87,0.79,0.8,0.77,0.79,0.81,0.67,0.75,0.64,0.55,0.27,0	92.7%
SAC 114, PHI 110	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.58,0.63,0.61,0.61,0.53,0.55,0.58,0.64,0.65,0.66,0.7,0.68,0.6,0.56,0.53,0.59,0.66,0.69,0.81,0.88,0.88,0.86,0.86,0.89,0.87,0.9,0.87,0.88,0.75,0.82,0.9,0.91,0.92,0.84,0.86,0.92,0.73,0.74,0.85,0.86,0.75,0.84,0.45,0.16,0	92.3%