NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	118		Excitement	6.1 [599]		MVP	Carmelo Anthony (DEN): +14.8%
Golden State Warriors	112		Comeback	1.9 [348]		LVP	Baron Davis (GSW): -18.1%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Carmelo Anthony	0.15	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.12,0.15,0.18,0.22,0.22,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.16	0.01	0.02	15	72%	0.19	2	-0.04	9	89%	0.02
Earl Watson	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.03	0.09	-0.02	10	50%	0.14	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Greg Buckner	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.03	0.00	2	125%	0.11	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
DerMarr Johnson	0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.05	-0.01	0.01	8	67%	0.05	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Francisco Elson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andre Miller	0.01	0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01	0.03	-0.02	-0.00	15	64%	0.14	4	-0.12	3	33%	-0.01
Earl Boykins	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.13,-0.11,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.03	0.02	12	67%	0.13	5	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Camby	0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01	0.06	-0.03	0.03	12	60%	0.03	1	-0.03	6	83%	-0.00
Eduardo Najera	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.03	3	67%	0.03	1	-0.03	3	67%	-0.01

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ike Diogu	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.09	0.05	-0.01	7	75%	0.17	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Mike Dunleavy	0,0,0,0.01,0,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.11	0.06	0.06	17	62%	0.12	1	-0.02	5	80%	-0.00
Jason Richardson	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.02,-0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.04,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.04	-0.02	0.03	20	57%	0.09	4	-0.10	6	50%	-0.04
Troy Murphy	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.05,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.09	-0.05	0.05	12	81%	0.12	4	-0.14	2	100%	0.01
Zarko Cabarkapa	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Calbert Cheaney	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Adonal Foyle	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	2	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derek Fisher	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.05	0.01	12	43%	-0.06	0	0.00	6	83%	0.01
Baron Davis	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.04	-0.07	0.07	12	53%	-0.06	4	-0.12	6	50%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.4	2.4	29.7	16.7	24.3	2.6	34.3	135.4
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +62.9%

GSW -7.1%

GSW -1.3%

GSW -2.6%

GSW -1.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	GSW	NBA	DEN	GSW	NBA
this game	15.6	14.8	15.6	124.2	119.1	104.4
season	14.4	14.8		103.5	102.9
opponent	15.5	15.9		104.0	103.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	14.1	15.8	15.3	17.6	15.6
GSW	13.6	15.5	16.0	14.4	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eduardo Najera	57	55	0.92	-0.42	1.33	0.15	26	-20	46	14.8	16.8	-1.97	15.6	13.8	1.83
Andre Miller	76	76	0.70	-0.20	0.90	0.26	15	-9	24	14.9	18.6	-3.68	15.1	13.6	1.59
Earl Watson	47	46	0.30	0.20	0.09	0.27	1	5	-4	16.3	15.0	1.36	14.3	15.4	-1.09
Marcus Camby	68	70	0.28	0.22	0.05	0.04	8	-2	10	15.3	16.5	-1.24	14.8	15.0	-0.16
Earl Boykins	43	41	0.27	0.23	0.05	0.36	-3	9	-12	18.5	13.3	5.22	14.5	15.1	-0.58
Carmelo Anthony	72	74	0.25	0.25	0.01	0.05	7	-1	8	15.4	16.5	-1.12	14.3	16.9	-2.68
DerMarr Johnson	50	50	0.04	0.46	-0.43	0.01	1	5	-4	14.5	16.9	-2.43	15.5	14.1	1.32
Greg Buckner	49	47	-0.03	0.53	-0.57	0.35	-13	19	-32	16.2	15.0	1.14	15.1	14.6	0.49
Francisco Elson	13	11	-0.22	0.72	-0.94	0.13	-12	18	-30	17.2	15.4	1.76	12.7	15.1	-2.39

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Calbert Cheaney	38	37	0.26	-0.76	1.02	-0.21	16	-22	38	15.1	14.7	0.44	15.2	15.9	-0.68
Ike Diogu	36	35	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.22	4	-10	14	16.9	13.6	3.36	15.1	15.9	-0.82
Zarko Cabarkapa	8	8	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	0.01	-5	-1	-4	18.6	14.5	4.14	10.2	16.1	-5.88
Adonal Foyle	28	29	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	0.12	-11	5	-16	14.0	15.2	-1.20	14.3	16.2	-1.95
Derek Fisher	62	63	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.42	3	-9	12	14.5	15.6	-1.09	16.3	14.4	1.85
Jason Richardson	82	83	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.33	-1	-5	4	14.4	18.0	-3.62	16.0	12.9	3.11
Baron Davis	81	82	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.28	-5	-1	-4	15.0	13.8	1.24	15.6	15.6	0.02
Troy Murphy	58	60	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.14	-11	5	-16	14.4	15.6	-1.20	15.9	15.1	0.77
Mike Dunleavy	77	78	-0.74	0.24	-0.99	-0.16	-20	14	-34	14.6	15.9	-1.27	16.0	14.1	1.92

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.41,0.38,0.32,0.37,0.37,0.31,0.31,0.29,0.35,0.4,0.42,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.52,0.51,0.64,0.58,0.54,0.47,0.5,0.51,0.42,0.42,0.55,0.52,0.45,0.38,0.44,0.48,0.56,0.56,0.46,0.34,0.34,0.17,0.15,0.14,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 112, WAS 100	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.44,0.42,0.43,0.47,0.39,0.38,0.33,0.34,0.37,0.36,0.38,0.45,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.54,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.37,0.36,0.36,0.45,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.6,0.58,0.46,0.43,0.33,0.24,0.28,0.11,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0,0	94.1%
BOS 89, NOH 77	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.47,0.44,0.42,0.43,0.39,0.37,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.46,0.42,0.42,0.44,0.49,0.43,0.53,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.59,0.59,0.51,0.58,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.52,0.62,0.56,0.56,0.6,0.5,0.34,0.21,0.24,0.15,0.06,0.08,0.05,0,0.01,0,0,0	93.4%
MIA 89, IND 78	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.39,0.35,0.36,0.36,0.35,0.38,0.36,0.38,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.55,0.46,0.5,0.4,0.4,0.39,0.45,0.35,0.35,0.38,0.48,0.44,0.56,0.52,0.38,0.26,0.25,0.14,0.15,0.26,0.15,0.07,0.01,0,0,0,0	93.0%