NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	107		Excitement	11.3 [35]		MVP	Eduardo Najera (DEN): +35.6%
Atlanta Hawks	110		Comeback	8.4 [207]		LVP	Carmelo Anthony (DEN): -44.9%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eduardo Najera	0.36	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.36,0.36	0.10	0.26	0.00	4	100%	0.39	1	-0.04	3	100%	0.07
Andre Miller	0.12	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.03,-0.1,-0.1,0.09,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.03	0.10	0.01	17	54%	0.29	2	-0.16	3	67%	-0.01
DerMarr Johnson	0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.06	-0.02	0.00	12	62%	0.05	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Earl Watson	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.00	0.03	-0.00	14	43%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Francisco Elson	0.00	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.04	0.03	-0.01	4	50%	0.05	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.02
Linas Kleiza	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	8	39%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Carmelo Anthony	-0.45	0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.05,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.04,0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.31,-0.45	-0.04	-0.38	0.03	24	51%	0.02	6	-0.47	24	79%	-0.00

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Joe Johnson	0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.23,0.2,0.2,0.25,0.24,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.06,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.24	0.11	0.14	0.01	26	54%	0.24	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Zaza Pachulia	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.01	0.17	-0.01	11	52%	0.23	2	-0.05	7	100%	0.10
Josh Smith	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.23,-0.12,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.04,0.14	0.14	0.03	0.10	-0.01	17	54%	0.40	2	-0.25	1	100%	0.01
Salim Stoudamire	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.02	0.00	4	67%	0.07	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
John Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Al Harrington	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0	0.00	-0.07	0.05	-0.01	15	44%	0.08	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
John Edwards	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyronn Lue	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.02	-0.02	0.11	-0.11	0.01	12	71%	0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Royal Ivey	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marvin Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Childress	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	-0.06	0.00	7	50%	-0.03	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	25.1	2.3	27.6	15.7	24.2	2.3	33.5	1.5	16.2	148.4
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	1.8	17.8	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +8.7%

ATL +3.2%

ATL +12.9%

ATL +21.1%

ATL +4.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	ATL	NBA	DEN	ATL	NBA
this game	15.3	17.5	15.6	109.2	114.6	104.4
season	14.4	15.6		103.5	103.9
opponent	15.5	15.9		109.3	103.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
DEN	13.0	16.8	15.0	14.6	21.4	15.3
ATL	15.8	17.5	17.7	19.0	18.4	17.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Linas Kleiza	50	48	0.25	-0.75	0.99	0.10	5	-8	13	14.5	16.1	-1.56	16.6	18.4	-1.75
DerMarr Johnson	63	67	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.20	-2	-1	-1	16.0	14.1	1.94	17.2	18.2	-1.01
Andre Miller	81	81	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.51	6	-9	15	15.1	16.1	-0.98	18.0	14.9	3.04
Earl Watson	61	57	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.31	-4	1	-5	14.6	16.4	-1.81	16.4	19.1	-2.70
Eduardo Najera	65	64	-0.56	0.06	-0.61	-0.44	-4	1	-5	15.4	15.2	0.23	17.7	17.2	0.47
Carmelo Anthony	90	86	-0.58	0.08	-0.67	-0.38	-7	4	-11	15.3	15.7	-0.48	17.6	16.8	0.78
Francisco Elson	80	77	-0.59	0.09	-0.67	-0.32	-9	6	-15	15.9	12.6	3.30	18.4	13.8	4.56

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Josh Smith	51	54	0.80	-0.30	1.10	0.51	10	-7	17	18.4	16.5	1.95	16.4	14.0	2.37
Zaza Pachulia	61	64	0.75	-0.25	1.00	0.31	15	-12	27	17.6	17.3	0.34	16.7	12.8	3.89
Joe Johnson	88	91	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.41	6	-3	9	17.7	14.9	2.86	15.5	13.3	2.18
Tyronn Lue	60	62	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.45	3	0	3	18.1	16.6	1.51	15.5	14.9	0.66
Al Harrington	89	90	0.54	-0.04	0.57	0.33	7	-4	11	17.5	17.7	-0.23	14.9	19.5	-4.57
Royal Ivey	17	17	0.05	0.45	-0.41	0.02	1	2	-1	17.6	17.5	0.18	14.6	15.4	-0.80
John Edwards	5	4	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.02	-1	4	-5	15.2	17.6	-2.43	6.2	15.7	-9.44
John Thomas	4	4	-0.04	0.54	-0.57	0.02	-2	5	-7	26.7	17.1	9.65	10.7	15.5	-4.75
Salim Stoudamire	22	22	-0.16	0.66	-0.81	-0.07	-3	6	-9	15.4	18.1	-2.71	16.1	15.1	1.07
Josh Childress	43	43	-0.17	0.67	-0.85	0.09	-9	12	-21	16.0	18.7	-2.72	14.6	15.9	-1.25
Marvin Williams	40	39	-0.38	0.88	-1.25	-0.03	-12	15	-27	16.9	17.9	-1.07	13.7	16.4	-2.64

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.54,0.48,0.49,0.59,0.61,0.6,0.64,0.64,0.63,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.64,0.63,0.69,0.61,0.61,0.63,0.62,0.6,0.61,0.61,0.64,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.41,0.44,0.56,0.42,0.26,0.24,0.29,0.19,0.14,0.33,0.22,0.24,0.46,0.45,0.58,0.46,0.39,0.16,0.43,0.59,1
Game		Similarity Score
SEA 110, GSW 113	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.53,0.57,0.56,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.6,0.58,0.53,0.43,0.4,0.42,0.45,0.44,0.6,0.56,0.61,0.64,0.72,0.64,0.56,0.5,0.4,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.55,0.53,0.52,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.34,0.26,0.25,0.19,0.16,0.09,0.35,0.27,0.38,0.45,0.53,0.59,0.46,0.45,0.21,0.43,0.16,1	90.4%
NJN 92, HOU 99	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.62,0.6,0.64,0.68,0.64,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.61,0.7,0.68,0.71,0.69,0.72,0.73,0.73,0.68,0.67,0.64,0.52,0.55,0.68,0.55,0.45,0.48,0.56,0.44,0.46,0.38,0.37,0.38,0.23,0.3,0.34,0.22,0.14,0.21,0.33,0.59,0.46,0.39,0.37,0.57,0.84,1	90.4%
CLE 95, GSW 101	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.53,0.56,0.55,0.57,0.53,0.57,0.58,0.53,0.5,0.45,0.51,0.58,0.6,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.61,0.61,0.63,0.63,0.66,0.7,0.61,0.67,0.65,0.62,0.59,0.59,0.44,0.4,0.42,0.43,0.21,0.25,0.27,0.22,0.29,0.4,0.38,0.29,0.43,0.74,0.46,0.45,0.46,0.55,0.91,1	89.5%