NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	89		Excitement	9.0 [145]		MVP	Michael Finley (SAS): +51.4%
San Antonio Spurs	90		Comeback	2.3 [706]		LVP	Brad Miller (SAC): -22.5%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bonzi Wells	0.18	0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,0.18	-0.09	0.25	-0.01	14	37%	0.22	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	0.16	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.13	0.03	0.01	16	71%	0.22	2	-0.06	3	33%	-0.04
Francisco Garcia	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Bibby	-0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,0.03,0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,0.09,0.24,-0.01	-0.03	0.03	0.00	20	49%	0.09	3	-0.09	3	33%	-0.03
Peja Stojakovic	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	14	43%	0.02	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Jason Hart	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	-0.00	4	33%	-0.02	1	-0.06	4	50%	-0.02
Kenny Thomas	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.09	-0.02	-0.00	5	20%	-0.06	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Brad Miller	-0.22	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.22,-0.22	-0.03	-0.18	0.01	13	46%	-0.15	2	-0.07	2	50%	-0.03

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Finley	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.1,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.51	0.51	0.10	0.42	0.01	12	67%	0.51	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.12	0.05	0.02	16	66%	0.18	1	-0.03	6	50%	-0.04
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.02	0.03	-0.01	9	45%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Robert Horry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.00	4	75%	0.06	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Nick Van Exel	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	-0.00	3	43%	-0.00	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.16,-0.19,-0.17,-0.17,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.15,-0.15,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.09,-0.01	-0.01	-0.11	0.08	-0.02	24	44%	0.12	5	-0.13	6	67%	-0.06
Nazr Mohammed	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.07	0.00	-0.03	3	12%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Brent Barry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.03	-0.01	5	30%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rasho Nesterovic	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.08	-0.05	0.00	3	37%	-0.03	3	-0.10	2	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.0	1.8	27.2	16.3	24.3	2.4	33.6	133.6
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +43.2%

SAS +8.6%

SAC -6.5%

SAS +1.5%

SAS +3.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	SAS	NBA	SAC	SAS	NBA
this game	14.9	16.2	15.6	96.7	96.8	104.4
season	15.3	16.3		104.7	106.0
opponent	15.6	15.5		99.4	103.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	15.2	14.0	15.0	15.4	14.9
SAS	13.0	17.9	17.0	17.3	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mike Bibby	77	79	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	0.17	-6	5	-11	15.5	12.0	3.48	15.7	19.1	-3.36
Francisco Garcia	2	2	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	0.07	-6	5	-11	16.0	14.9	1.11	11.5	16.3	-4.82
Kenny Thomas	28	29	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.11	-5	4	-9	14.7	15.0	-0.23	15.4	16.6	-1.16
Brad Miller	78	79	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.23	-4	3	-7	15.1	13.8	1.33	16.0	17.4	-1.43
Peja Stojakovic	81	82	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.59	7	-8	15	14.8	15.6	-0.82	17.1	9.5	7.56
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	78	78	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.59	7	-8	15	14.8	15.7	-0.95	16.7	13.5	3.20
Jason Hart	34	35	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.64	6	-7	13	13.9	15.5	-1.68	16.5	16.0	0.53
Bonzi Wells	82	81	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.42	-4	3	-7	14.9	15.1	-0.21	15.8	19.2	-3.39

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tony Parker	72	74	0.69	-0.19	0.88	0.37	11	-10	21	15.8	17.6	-1.75	14.8	15.3	-0.45
Robert Horry	46	45	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.40	5	-4	9	15.8	16.7	-0.90	14.8	15.0	-0.22
Tim Duncan	70	70	0.52	-0.02	0.53	0.52	0	1	-1	17.2	13.3	3.92	14.9	15.0	-0.05
Michael Finley	69	68	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.53	-2	3	-5	16.5	15.4	1.08	15.1	14.4	0.67
Nick Van Exel	21	19	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.57	-8	9	-17	17.6	15.8	1.75	14.6	15.0	-0.42
Nazr Mohammed	18	19	0.16	0.34	-0.19	-0.08	8	-7	15	14.1	16.7	-2.61	14.4	15.0	-0.62
Bruce Bowen	74	72	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.07	0	1	-1	16.5	15.3	1.20	14.9	15.1	-0.24
Brent Barry	43	43	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	-0.12	2	-1	3	15.3	17.0	-1.61	15.0	14.8	0.21
Rasho Nesterovic	52	50	-0.22	0.72	-0.94	0.10	-11	12	-23	16.0	16.4	-0.40	15.2	14.5	0.67

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.65,0.73,0.74,0.74,0.74,0.71,0.71,0.63,0.61,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.41,0.5,0.43,0.45,0.42,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.48,0.55,0.59,0.6,0.56,0.54,0.46,0.38,0.43,0.42,0.7,0.81,0.91,0.86,0.84,0.56,0.42,1
Game		Similarity Score
OKC 84, MEM 86	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.51,0.59,0.58,0.57,0.61,0.65,0.63,0.64,0.62,0.66,0.68,0.67,0.75,0.79,0.74,0.74,0.71,0.73,0.69,0.56,0.57,0.5,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.52,0.54,0.65,0.62,0.59,0.44,0.52,0.62,0.52,0.43,0.58,0.47,0.59,0.6,0.82,0.9,0.72,0.67,0.42,1	90.3%
PHX 104, MIN 108	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.56,0.62,0.66,0.68,0.63,0.66,0.66,0.65,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.6,0.61,0.54,0.58,0.51,0.5,0.54,0.58,0.52,0.48,0.55,0.55,0.62,0.52,0.56,0.6,0.44,0.38,0.34,0.43,0.47,0.42,0.59,0.71,0.61,0.81,0.64,0.56,0.58,1	89.4%
LAC 93, SEA 98	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.41,0.43,0.46,0.49,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.58,0.66,0.65,0.62,0.66,0.67,0.65,0.69,0.7,0.68,0.64,0.69,0.58,0.49,0.42,0.45,0.48,0.58,0.52,0.45,0.55,0.59,0.52,0.63,0.56,0.64,0.58,0.52,0.52,0.67,0.58,0.59,0.76,0.61,0.74,0.79,0.76,0.58,1	89.3%