NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Oklahoma City Thunder	84		Excitement	8.9 [127]		MVP	Rudy Gay (MEM): +17.2%
Memphis Grizzlies	86		Comeback	1.6 [661]		LVP	O.J. Mayo (MEM): -38.4%

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
James Harden	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.09	0.05	0.00	6	81%	0.16	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Nenad Krstic	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.01	-0.00	5	57%	0.03	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.01
Byron Mullens	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eric Maynor	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	8	50%	0.05	2	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Thabo Sefolosha	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	4	25%	-0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Nick Collison	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.07	-0.03	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Serge Ibaka	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	3	0%	-0.06	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Russell Westbrook	-0.14	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.10	-0.04	-0.00	8	42%	-0.02	5	-0.12	3	67%	0.00
Kevin Durant	-0.27	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,-0.27	0.01	-0.30	-0.02	23	52%	0.00	3	-0.27	12	83%	0.00
Jeff Green	-0.32	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.15,-0.15,-0.09,-0.19,-0.19,-0.32	-0.03	-0.27	0.02	18	42%	-0.22	1	-0.10	0	0%	0.00

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rudy Gay	0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.06,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,-0.13,0.17	0.17	0.05	0.10	-0.03	22	49%	0.17	0	0.00	7	71%	0.00
Marc Gasol	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.01	0.06	-0.00	8	62%	0.16	3	-0.08	8	87%	0.03
Zach Randolph	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.19,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.01	-0.02	20	49%	0.10	1	-0.04	11	64%	-0.06
DeMarre Carroll	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamaal Tinsley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Sam Young	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Hasheem Thabeet	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	0	0%	-0.05	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.08
Mike Conley	0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	0.03	-0.11	0.02	8	78%	0.08	4	-0.18	2	100%	0.01
O.J. Mayo	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.24,-0.24,-0.38	-0.38	-0.19	-0.21	-0.02	12	18%	-0.34	3	-0.05	4	75%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.0	2.5	31.5	16.4	28.5	2.5	37.3	145.7
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MEM +19.0%

MEM +6.3%

OKC -28.5%

MEM +51.4%

MEM +1.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	OKC	MEM	NBA	OKC	MEM	NBA
this game	15.9	15.9	15.3	93.3	94.5	106.0
season	15.0	15.4		106.2	106.8
opponent	15.0	15.5		108.4	103.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
OKC	15.6	13.4	16.3	18.8	15.9
MEM	15.7	16.0	15.7	16.3	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eric Maynor	44	47	0.01	-0.51	0.53	-0.22	8	-10	18	15.9	15.9	-0.05	15.0	16.9	-1.93
Nenad Krstic	45	46	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.07	2	-4	6	16.2	15.6	0.67	17.4	14.4	3.04
Byron Mullens	9	10	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	-0.02	0	-2	2	13.8	16.1	-2.37	14.8	16.0	-1.25
James Harden	52	55	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.14	1	-3	4	16.2	15.6	0.57	15.4	16.6	-1.20
Serge Ibaka	18	20	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	0.01	-6	4	-10	19.8	14.9	4.83	12.8	16.8	-3.99
Kevin Durant	82	81	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.35	5	-7	12	15.4	21.0	-5.59	16.3	13.1	3.16
Thabo Sefolosha	38	37	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.31	-3	1	-4	15.6	16.2	-0.57	16.7	15.4	1.29
Nick Collison	36	35	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.35	-4	2	-6	16.0	15.8	0.19	14.3	16.9	-2.69
Russell Westbrook	46	44	-0.51	0.01	-0.53	-0.22	-10	8	-18	15.9	15.9	0.05	16.9	15.0	1.93
Jeff Green	80	80	-0.61	0.11	-0.73	-0.52	-3	1	-4	15.5	18.8	-3.25	16.3	13.0	3.31

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rudy Gay	82	80	0.86	-0.36	1.21	0.44	14	-12	26	15.9	15.8	0.15	16.1	14.5	1.59
Marc Gasol	62	60	0.57	-0.07	0.65	0.34	8	-6	14	16.9	13.9	3.01	16.4	14.9	1.52
O.J. Mayo	74	75	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.52	-2	4	-6	16.7	12.4	4.30	15.6	17.6	-2.03
Mike Conley	66	67	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.39	-2	4	-6	17.2	12.6	4.62	15.2	17.9	-2.69
Zach Randolph	73	73	0.23	0.27	-0.05	0.34	-4	6	-10	16.5	13.3	3.21	15.4	18.0	-2.58
Hasheem Thabeet	47	47	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.20	0	2	-2	13.7	18.3	-4.66	16.0	15.8	0.23
Jamaal Tinsley	25	23	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.05	4	-2	6	12.6	17.2	-4.62	17.9	15.2	2.69
Sam Young	22	20	-0.06	0.56	-0.63	-0.01	-2	4	-6	13.7	16.6	-2.88	15.8	15.9	-0.14
DeMarre Carroll	4	5	-0.25	0.75	-1.00	-0.07	-6	8	-14	12.7	16.1	-3.31	18.6	15.8	2.85

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.51,0.59,0.58,0.57,0.61,0.65,0.63,0.64,0.62,0.66,0.68,0.67,0.75,0.79,0.74,0.74,0.71,0.73,0.69,0.56,0.57,0.5,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.52,0.54,0.65,0.62,0.59,0.44,0.52,0.62,0.52,0.43,0.58,0.47,0.59,0.6,0.82,0.9,0.72,0.67,0.42,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 93, SEA 98	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.41,0.43,0.46,0.49,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.58,0.66,0.65,0.62,0.66,0.67,0.65,0.69,0.7,0.68,0.64,0.69,0.58,0.49,0.42,0.45,0.48,0.58,0.52,0.45,0.55,0.59,0.52,0.63,0.56,0.64,0.58,0.52,0.52,0.67,0.58,0.59,0.76,0.61,0.74,0.79,0.76,0.58,1	91.7%
GSW 94, HOU 98	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.6,0.57,0.52,0.59,0.59,0.59,0.7,0.67,0.62,0.65,0.7,0.68,0.62,0.65,0.69,0.68,0.68,0.69,0.72,0.64,0.59,0.5,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.45,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.44,0.46,0.34,0.48,0.62,0.47,0.59,0.71,0.82,0.86,0.79,0.83,0.72,1	91.5%
NYK 97, DET 99	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.47,0.52,0.58,0.55,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.66,0.63,0.64,0.62,0.64,0.66,0.65,0.7,0.71,0.61,0.66,0.59,0.59,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.61,0.67,0.64,0.62,0.59,0.52,0.44,0.52,0.6,0.58,0.52,0.43,0.58,0.47,0.53,0.6,0.55,0.81,0.84,0.69,0.74,1	90.4%