NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Washington Wizards	101		Excitement	13.1 [10]		MVP	Caron Butler (WAS): +27.2%
Miami Heat	104		Comeback	25.5 [71]		LVP	Antawn Jamison (WAS): -39.3%

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Caron Butler	0.27	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.26,0.33,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.32,0.27	0.13	0.13	-0.01	22	62%	0.32	1	-0.05	1	0%	-0.05
Chucky Atkins	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.21,0.27,0.18,0.18,0.11,0,0,0,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13	0.18	0.01	0.06	13	87%	0.29	3	-0.16	4	100%	0.04
Jared Jeffries	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Ruffin	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	1	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Etan Thomas	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.1,-0.1	-0.01	-0.09	0.00	3	50%	-0.07	1	-0.04	4	75%	-0.00
Brendan Haywood	-0.13	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.05	-0.07	0.01	5	33%	-0.10	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.05
Jarvis Hayes	-0.15	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.10	-0.05	-0.00	7	29%	-0.05	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Gilbert Arenas	-0.34	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.1,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.07,-0.07,-0.17,-0.17,-0.22,-0.34,-0.34,-0.34	-0.12	-0.19	0.03	24	39%	-0.16	3	-0.17	14	93%	0.05
Antawn Jamison	-0.39	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.39	-0.18	-0.23	-0.02	17	18%	-0.27	1	-0.12	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gary Payton	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.19,0.19,0.11	0.11	0.12	-0.00	0.01	11	75%	0.18	2	-0.07	6	100%	0.04
Shandon Anderson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wayne Simien	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Kapono	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	4	50%	0.01	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Antoine Walker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	-0.00	8	32%	-0.07	1	-0.02	6	33%	-0.06
James Posey	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	-0.02	-0.00	7	31%	-0.03	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.02
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.11,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.28,0.33,0.33,0.37,0.37,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.28,0.39,0.23,-0.1,-0.16,-0.2,-0.1,-0.16,-0.1	-0.10	0.17	-0.23	0.04	27	61%	0.09	2	-0.19	13	85%	0.02
Gerald Fitch	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.04	-0.07	-0.00	7	36%	-0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.01	-0.15	-0.01	12	42%	-0.15	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Shaquille O'Neal	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.26,-0.26,-0.41,-0.25,-0.2,-0.2,-0.29,-0.39,-0.39	-0.39	-0.16	-0.23	-0.00	7	33%	-0.08	4	-0.31	16	37%	-0.47

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	29.5	1.0	32.6	16.0	30.3	1.8	45.2	1.7	14.1	172.2
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	1.8	17.8	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

WAS -14.7%

MIA +4.2%

MIA +39.9%

MIA +2.7%

MIA +17.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	WAS	MIA	NBA	WAS	MIA	NBA
this game	14.6	16.0	15.6	97.1	100.0	104.4
season	15.1	15.5		107.4	106.1
opponent	15.5	15.6		102.3	105.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
WAS	17.0	14.9	15.1	13.0	12.0	14.6
MIA	16.5	17.9	14.2	15.2	16.8	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Etan Thomas	47	47	0.47	-0.97	1.44	0.00	16	-19	35	13.8	15.2	-1.42	17.7	14.6	3.12
Chucky Atkins	65	65	0.24	-0.74	0.98	-0.14	13	-16	29	13.3	16.8	-3.50	16.4	15.3	1.10
Michael Ruffin	32	31	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.20	-2	-1	-1	13.8	14.9	-1.10	14.4	16.7	-2.30
Caron Butler	76	78	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.38	3	-6	9	13.7	16.9	-3.18	16.0	15.9	0.12
Jared Jeffries	27	27	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	0.05	-12	9	-21	17.2	13.7	3.53	16.7	15.7	0.94
Antawn Jamison	86	85	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.34	1	-4	5	14.9	13.2	1.74	15.9	16.2	-0.29
Gilbert Arenas	92	91	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.36	-2	-1	-1	14.6	14.5	0.12	15.9	16.2	-0.30
Jarvis Hayes	34	35	-0.65	0.15	-0.79	-0.24	-14	11	-25	17.2	13.3	3.86	15.3	16.3	-0.95
Brendan Haywood	61	61	-0.98	0.48	-1.47	-0.45	-18	15	-33	15.0	14.0	0.99	15.2	17.1	-1.91

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shaquille O'Neal	47	49	0.75	-0.25	1.01	0.46	10	-7	17	15.0	16.7	-1.69	14.3	14.9	-0.53
Gary Payton	91	91	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.34	5	-2	7	15.8	16.9	-1.09	14.3	16.8	-2.47
Dwyane Wade	91	92	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.40	3	0	3	16.1	15.2	0.93	15.0	11.6	3.42
Udonis Haslem	83	84	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.23	3	0	3	16.1	15.5	0.62	14.6	14.8	-0.24
Alonzo Mourning	44	42	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.19	-1	4	-5	15.5	16.3	-0.74	14.6	14.6	-0.06
Wayne Simien	3	3	0.11	0.39	-0.28	-0.01	4	-1	5	12.0	16.1	-4.09	15.7	14.6	1.09
Shandon Anderson	4	3	0.09	0.41	-0.33	-0.06	5	-2	7	12.7	16.1	-3.35	21.7	14.4	7.27
James Posey	56	56	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.23	-5	8	-13	17.4	14.3	3.12	15.6	13.4	2.17
Jason Kapono	5	4	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.03	1	2	-1	16.6	15.9	0.66	14.2	14.6	-0.37
Antoine Walker	55	55	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	0.05	-6	9	-15	16.2	15.8	0.41	14.3	15.0	-0.71
Gerald Fitch	31	30	-0.35	0.85	-1.21	-0.15	-7	10	-17	15.2	16.3	-1.11	13.9	14.9	-0.99

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.57,0.6,0.56,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.51,0.52,0.44,0.36,0.25,0.3,0.33,0.29,0.45,0.54,0.52,0.42,0.48,0.59,0.62,0.66,0.7,0.64,0.7,0.74,0.75,0.8,0.85,0.86,0.71,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.57,0.28,0.46,0.69,0.55,0.68,0.77,1
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 94, BOS 100	0.5,0.5,0.51,0.58,0.6,0.65,0.6,0.62,0.63,0.6,0.53,0.49,0.56,0.63,0.6,0.58,0.62,0.56,0.61,0.52,0.53,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.33,0.37,0.45,0.52,0.42,0.45,0.36,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.52,0.7,0.79,0.81,0.82,0.9,0.8,0.85,0.79,0.8,0.61,0.69,0.55,0.67,0.42,0.54,0.45,0.55,0.69,0.84,1	90.8%
TOR 111, WAS 119	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.47,0.54,0.6,0.62,0.66,0.65,0.61,0.55,0.58,0.57,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.51,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.6,0.55,0.58,0.52,0.58,0.65,0.66,0.8,0.8,0.68,0.66,0.74,0.71,0.63,0.77,0.74,0.65,0.61,0.32,0.36,0.55,0.58,0.46,0.55,0.71,0.85,0.73,1	89.0%
LAL 104, PHI 107	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.43,0.37,0.38,0.43,0.47,0.4,0.47,0.56,0.56,0.52,0.44,0.41,0.44,0.39,0.33,0.37,0.34,0.31,0.34,0.39,0.51,0.48,0.59,0.65,0.7,0.78,0.75,0.78,0.72,0.85,0.87,0.81,0.73,0.7,0.72,0.47,0.54,0.67,0.72,0.46,0.69,0.46,0.66,0.92,1	88.7%