NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	116		Excitement	7.1 [419]		MVP	Al Harrington (ATL): +24.1%
Denver Nuggets	125		Comeback	1.1 [1103]		LVP	Joe Johnson (ATL): -14.4%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Al Harrington	0.24	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.03,0.02,0.07,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.23,0.23,0.25,0.25,0.28,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.24	0.12	0.08	-0.04	25	62%	0.31	3	-0.07	6	67%	0.02
Tyronn Lue	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12	0.07	0.06	0.01	10	62%	0.14	1	-0.02	6	100%	0.04
Salim Stoudamire	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.06	0.03	-0.02	10	59%	0.11	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Josh Childress	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.08	0.07	0.00	-0.00	11	64%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Esteban Batista	0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.01	0.02	-0.02	2	50%	0.05	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.03
Royal Ivey	-0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.03	-0.02	0.00	10	70%	0.07	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Marvin Williams	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	-0.00	5	50%	0.00	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Zaza Pachulia	-0.09	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.08	-0.03	-0.02	6	36%	-0.00	3	-0.09	2	50%	-0.01
Joe Johnson	-0.14	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.08,-0.05,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.09	-0.05	0.01	9	39%	-0.05	3	-0.10	5	100%	0.03

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marcus Camby	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.13	0.07	-0.01	13	80%	0.29	4	-0.10	4	100%	0.03
Earl Boykins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.19	0.19	0.06	0.13	-0.00	12	65%	0.26	3	-0.07	7	86%	0.03
Andre Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.01,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.19	0.19	0.08	0.14	0.03	8	81%	0.33	5	-0.14	10	90%	0.04
Kenyon Martin	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.08	0.02	0.01	5	82%	0.09	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Greg Buckner	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.04	0.03	-0.01	7	53%	0.08	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Eduardo Najera	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.04	-0.01	6	57%	0.08	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
DerMarr Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.01	3	71%	0.05	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Linas Kleiza	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.01	4	50%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Carmelo Anthony	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.01,0.04,0,0,-0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.01	-0.04	0.01	16	58%	0.12	5	-0.15	13	92%	0.07
Earl Watson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.5	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.3	1.8	40.0	141.9
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +13.3%

DEN +44.3%

DEN +4.1%

ATL -14.5%

DEN +2.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	DEN	NBA	ATL	DEN	NBA
this game	15.9	13.2	15.6	117.2	126.3	104.4
season	15.6	14.4		103.9	103.5
opponent	15.9	15.5		103.5	109.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	14.4	15.7	17.8	15.9	15.9
DEN	15.0	12.6	12.2	12.9	13.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Esteban Batista	34	35	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	0.06	-6	-3	-3	14.8	16.5	-1.76	14.9	12.2	2.61
Marvin Williams	50	50	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.04	-4	-5	1	16.3	15.5	0.81	13.4	12.9	0.46
Josh Childress	62	61	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.29	4	-13	17	15.7	16.3	-0.60	13.3	12.9	0.45
Royal Ivey	38	38	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.12	-2	-7	5	16.9	15.3	1.63	11.4	14.3	-2.84
Salim Stoudamire	31	31	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.05	-5	-4	-1	15.4	16.1	-0.73	14.3	12.7	1.63
Zaza Pachulia	67	66	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.15	-4	-5	1	15.7	16.4	-0.77	12.5	14.4	-1.88
Tyronn Lue	52	52	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.17	-5	-4	-1	15.8	16.0	-0.19	15.0	11.2	3.77
Joe Johnson	90	90	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.22	-8	-1	-7	15.9	16.3	-0.46	12.9	15.8	-2.87
Al Harrington	77	78	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.20	-10	1	-11	16.2	14.9	1.36	12.4	15.9	-3.47

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andre Miller	76	77	0.80	-0.30	1.09	0.15	22	-13	35	12.3	16.1	-3.80	16.2	14.9	1.30
Greg Buckner	69	69	0.54	-0.04	0.59	0.16	13	-4	17	12.7	14.3	-1.67	16.0	15.7	0.36
Carmelo Anthony	84	83	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.21	6	3	3	12.4	17.6	-5.22	15.9	16.0	-0.10
Earl Boykins	54	53	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.24	3	6	-3	13.9	12.2	1.70	15.3	16.6	-1.25
Eduardo Najera	54	55	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.28	0	9	-9	14.2	11.9	2.35	16.2	15.5	0.71
Marcus Camby	77	77	0.26	0.24	0.01	0.11	5	4	1	13.0	13.9	-0.89	15.8	16.3	-0.51
Kenyon Martin	29	30	0.19	0.31	-0.12	-0.07	9	0	9	11.2	14.0	-2.78	16.4	15.7	0.64
Linas Kleiza	28	28	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.02	1	8	-7	15.6	12.2	3.35	15.3	16.2	-0.83
DerMarr Johnson	16	16	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	0.06	-4	13	-17	14.7	12.9	1.88	14.2	16.2	-1.99
Earl Watson	9	9	-0.23	0.73	-0.96	0.01	-8	17	-25	17.3	12.8	4.58	17.7	15.7	1.92

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.54,0.61,0.69,0.73,0.68,0.63,0.65,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.73,0.71,0.71,0.73,0.65,0.66,0.66,0.61,0.66,0.67,0.73,0.71,0.82,0.8,0.74,0.79,0.71,0.71,0.75,0.77,0.63,0.68,0.58,0.57,0.71,0.62,0.77,0.9,0.85,0.96,0.9,0.85,0.89,0.72,1
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 109, ORL 118	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.59,0.65,0.65,0.64,0.62,0.63,0.67,0.73,0.8,0.84,0.76,0.75,0.77,0.63,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.68,0.8,0.77,0.81,0.81,0.75,0.73,0.71,0.71,0.72,0.77,0.7,0.72,0.66,0.52,0.75,0.8,0.77,0.83,0.89,0.9,0.85,1,1,1,1	92.8%
HOU 79, LAL 88	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.59,0.63,0.63,0.64,0.65,0.7,0.73,0.66,0.65,0.64,0.7,0.66,0.6,0.65,0.68,0.64,0.71,0.77,0.79,0.67,0.73,0.71,0.69,0.73,0.76,0.71,0.79,0.8,0.79,0.8,0.71,0.75,0.66,0.62,0.7,0.67,0.68,0.79,0.88,0.95,0.81,0.78,0.96,0.96,1	92.7%
NJN 97, SAC 98	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.55,0.6,0.64,0.71,0.72,0.69,0.71,0.68,0.66,0.58,0.56,0.6,0.65,0.65,0.71,0.66,0.72,0.77,0.67,0.7,0.65,0.66,0.7,0.78,0.76,0.77,0.78,0.72,0.69,0.67,0.56,0.62,0.62,0.71,0.76,0.81,0.9,0.99,0.98,0.93,0.86,0.95,0.91,1	92.4%