NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	109		Excitement	6.7 [464]		MVP	Chris Mills (GSW): +20.7%
Orlando Magic	118		Comeback	1.0 [1025]		LVP	Danny Fortson (GSW): -24.2%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Mills	0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.28,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.15	0.07	0.01	10	87%	0.22	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01
Bob Sura	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.02	0.04	-0.01	7	65%	0.10	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.02
Mookie Blaylock	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.02	0.00	2	100%	0.08	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Adonal Foyle	0.01	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.01	5	58%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Jason Richardson	-0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.01	-0.03	0.01	12	50%	-0.03	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Troy Murphy	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.00	-0.03	0.01	4	64%	-0.01	1	-0.04	3	33%	-0.05
Larry Hughes	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.01	0.03	8	61%	-0.04	3	-0.04	7	57%	-0.02
Antawn Jamison	-0.09	0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.14,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.08,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.01	0.02	24	47%	-0.04	2	-0.06	9	56%	-0.04
Danny Fortson	-0.24	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.21,-0.21,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24	-0.20	-0.06	-0.02	14	17%	-0.19	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Pat Garrity	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.11,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.09	0.10	-0.01	5	90%	0.20	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Troy Hudson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.06,0.01,0.11,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.12	0.07	0.04	14	81%	0.28	4	-0.14	4	100%	0.00
Horace Grant	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.08	0.02	-0.01	8	79%	0.13	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.01
Mike Miller	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.05	-0.01	0.01	11	68%	0.07	2	-0.04	6	67%	-0.00
Jud Buechler	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steven Hunter	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Patrick Ewing	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.00	8	50%	0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Monty Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	0.01	5	79%	0.06	3	-0.08	4	75%	0.00
Don Reid	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.02	5	33%	-0.02	1	-0.04	2	0%	-0.02
Darrell Armstrong	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.1,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.09	-0.01	0.00	13	33%	-0.08	2	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Tracy McGrady	0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.10	-0.03	0.01	17	41%	-0.10	2	-0.04	7	86%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.0	1.7	31.7	16.6	27.2	1.8	29.2	132.2
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +32.7%

ORL +12.9%

ORL +18.6%

GSW -16.0%

ORL +1.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	ORL	NBA	GSW	ORL	NBA
this game	14.4	15.9	15.6	116.0	122.9	102.3
season	14.7	14.6		100.7	104.6
opponent	15.8	15.1		103.3	106.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	13.5	14.2	13.6	16.5	14.4
ORL	12.7	14.6	18.3	19.5	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Adonal Foyle	22	24	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	0.06	-5	-4	-1	14.9	14.2	0.73	15.0	16.3	-1.26
Troy Murphy	33	33	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	-0.17	2	-11	13	14.2	14.4	-0.17	14.8	16.5	-1.68
Bob Sura	47	47	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.21	3	-12	15	14.0	14.7	-0.62	15.1	16.8	-1.73
Larry Hughes	65	68	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.27	1	-10	11	14.2	14.6	-0.34	16.5	14.7	1.74
Jason Richardson	71	73	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.30	2	-11	13	14.8	13.1	1.67	16.7	13.5	3.25
Mookie Blaylock	29	28	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	0.03	-10	1	-11	14.6	14.2	0.34	14.7	16.5	-1.74
Chris Mills	66	66	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.26	-4	-5	1	13.6	16.0	-2.40	15.9	16.0	-0.12
Danny Fortson	58	59	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.00	-13	4	-17	14.8	13.6	1.24	16.6	15.0	1.59
Antawn Jamison	79	82	-0.68	0.18	-0.85	-0.06	-21	12	-33	14.3	14.6	-0.30	16.1	15.2	0.86

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Pat Garrity	36	37	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.18	13	-4	17	16.3	15.7	0.57	14.4	14.4	0.00
Tracy McGrady	83	81	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.13	12	-3	15	16.2	14.6	1.54	14.6	12.7	1.92
Mike Miller	59	56	0.45	0.05	0.41	-0.05	17	-8	25	16.2	15.5	0.66	15.2	13.2	2.00
Horace Grant	66	63	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.02	13	-4	17	16.4	14.9	1.52	14.5	14.1	0.43
Troy Hudson	58	57	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.21	4	5	-1	15.2	17.1	-1.92	13.7	15.3	-1.61
Darrell Armstrong	57	55	0.21	0.29	-0.09	0.09	4	5	-1	16.7	14.9	1.77	14.5	14.1	0.38
Patrick Ewing	33	31	0.13	0.37	-0.24	-0.05	6	3	3	16.0	15.9	0.08	14.5	14.3	0.25
Monty Williams	34	34	0.02	0.48	-0.45	0.23	-7	16	-23	15.1	16.4	-1.24	13.7	14.7	-1.06
Steven Hunter	2	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	11	-13	9.5	16.1	-6.59	7.0	14.5	-7.51
Don Reid	44	45	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.19	-7	16	-23	15.5	16.4	-0.91	14.0	14.7	-0.63
Jud Buechler	8	9	-0.06	0.56	-0.63	0.17	-8	17	-25	14.2	16.1	-1.85	14.2	14.4	-0.14

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.59,0.65,0.65,0.64,0.62,0.63,0.67,0.73,0.8,0.84,0.76,0.75,0.77,0.63,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.68,0.8,0.77,0.81,0.81,0.75,0.73,0.71,0.71,0.72,0.77,0.7,0.72,0.66,0.52,0.75,0.8,0.77,0.83,0.89,0.9,0.85,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 92, LAL 99	0.5,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.5,0.5,0.56,0.56,0.61,0.55,0.63,0.66,0.7,0.7,0.76,0.74,0.73,0.71,0.67,0.61,0.57,0.61,0.58,0.64,0.67,0.78,0.79,0.77,0.73,0.81,0.78,0.71,0.75,0.78,0.7,0.74,0.64,0.54,0.62,0.7,0.75,0.88,0.86,0.96,1,1,1,1,1,1	93.9%
HOU 76, UTA 85	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.53,0.59,0.63,0.65,0.66,0.67,0.65,0.67,0.7,0.74,0.76,0.72,0.69,0.75,0.67,0.65,0.66,0.56,0.58,0.64,0.73,0.8,0.86,0.88,0.83,0.76,0.67,0.74,0.77,0.88,0.85,0.83,0.79,0.78,0.7,0.86,0.8,0.77,0.83,0.88,0.78,0.9,0.97,1,1,1	93.8%
CHA 86, NJN 93	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.57,0.57,0.61,0.61,0.59,0.63,0.63,0.68,0.71,0.74,0.78,0.7,0.68,0.69,0.73,0.76,0.69,0.59,0.64,0.73,0.75,0.84,0.79,0.74,0.75,0.79,0.79,0.71,0.62,0.62,0.73,0.78,0.68,0.7,0.62,0.75,0.89,0.88,0.97,0.98,0.93,0.99,1,1,1,1	93.7%