NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	106		Excitement	6.0 [625]		MVP	Brad Miller (SAC): +12.7%
Golden State Warriors	113		Comeback	1.3 [1050]		LVP	Shareef Abdur-Rahim (SAC): -11.0%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brad Miller	0.13	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13	0.18	0.02	0.07	7	105%	0.19	2	-0.06	5	80%	-0.01
Mike Bibby	0.05	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.05	0.07	-0.00	0.01	19	52%	0.05	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Bonzi Wells	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02	0.04	0.00	0.02	16	57%	0.08	3	-0.06	8	50%	-0.02
Jason Hart	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	4	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Martin	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kenny Thomas	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	5	53%	0.03	2	-0.05	5	40%	-0.03
Francisco Garcia	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Peja Stojakovic	-0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	9	37%	-0.06	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.11,-0.11	0.02	-0.07	0.06	14	63%	0.05	5	-0.16	7	86%	0.01

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Adonal Foyle	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.10	0.03	0.00	5	100%	0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Dunleavy	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.08	0.08	0.12	-0.01	0.03	9	79%	0.13	2	-0.05	6	100%	0.02
Jason Richardson	0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.1,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.07	0.02	0.02	27	53%	0.09	1	-0.02	8	75%	-0.01
Ike Diogu	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Miles	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Baron Davis	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	0.01	22	54%	0.14	5	-0.14	2	50%	-0.01
Derek Fisher	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	0.01	10	43%	-0.01	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.01
Andris Biedrins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Troy Murphy	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.08	0.00	-0.03	14	40%	0.01	3	-0.06	7	43%	-0.04
Calbert Cheaney	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	-0.01	-0.02	3	0%	-0.06	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	2.7	20.6	15.0	27.2	2.5	35.2	128.4
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +14.9%

SAC -1.6%

GSW +29.2%

GSW +6.3%

GSW +1.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	GSW	NBA	SAC	GSW	NBA
this game	13.4	15.6	15.6	108.2	113.0	104.4
season	15.3	14.8		104.7	102.9
opponent	15.5	15.5		104.0	103.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	13.0	16.0	13.2	11.8	13.4
GSW	13.6	15.3	17.5	16.3	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kenny Thomas	41	40	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	-0.06	0	-7	7	13.0	13.7	-0.69	16.8	14.8	2.05
Kevin Martin	8	7	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	0.05	-5	-2	-3	17.1	13.1	4.00	18.4	15.4	3.02
Francisco Garcia	22	22	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	0.01	-5	-2	-3	13.3	13.5	-0.17	15.9	15.6	0.31
Jason Hart	26	27	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.07	-3	-4	1	14.1	13.2	0.85	17.1	15.1	2.09
Mike Bibby	86	88	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.35	0	-7	7	12.8	17.7	-4.90	15.4	16.9	-1.47
Bonzi Wells	71	73	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.24	-4	-3	-1	13.7	12.7	1.08	15.4	16.1	-0.67
Peja Stojakovic	81	83	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.28	-4	-3	-1	13.3	14.2	-0.88	15.2	17.8	-2.65
Brad Miller	77	78	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.28	-6	-1	-5	13.6	12.7	0.94	15.2	17.1	-1.89
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	78	82	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.25	-8	1	-9	13.5	13.4	0.06	15.4	16.6	-1.14

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Richardson	92	90	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.27	11	-4	15	14.8	25.2	-10.47	13.3	14.7	-1.42
Troy Murphy	91	90	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.24	10	-3	13	14.7	25.0	-10.31	13.2	16.5	-3.32
Baron Davis	94	91	0.40	0.10	0.31	0.34	2	5	-3	15.7	14.2	1.55	13.2	16.6	-3.36
Derek Fisher	39	39	0.30	0.20	0.09	0.03	9	-2	11	16.5	15.0	1.51	13.5	13.4	0.15
Adonal Foyle	65	64	0.29	0.21	0.09	0.27	1	6	-5	16.0	15.0	0.95	13.6	13.1	0.51
Mike Dunleavy	74	71	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.27	-1	8	-9	15.4	16.2	-0.72	13.5	13.3	0.16
Aaron Miles	6	7	0.10	0.40	-0.31	-0.05	5	2	3	14.2	15.7	-1.55	16.6	13.2	3.36
Ike Diogu	13	13	0.05	0.45	-0.40	-0.01	2	5	-3	20.7	14.9	5.83	16.4	13.0	3.38
Andris Biedrins	20	19	0.04	0.46	-0.41	0.07	-1	8	-9	16.1	15.5	0.66	13.7	13.4	0.36
Calbert Cheaney	6	6	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.05	-3	10	-13	22.5	15.2	7.32	9.0	13.7	-4.74

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.57,0.58,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.51,0.57,0.51,0.47,0.5,0.53,0.54,0.6,0.6,0.67,0.63,0.56,0.64,0.56,0.64,0.73,0.7,0.71,0.72,0.67,0.64,0.55,0.65,0.81,0.86,0.92,0.83,0.8,0.87,0.92,0.93,0.87,0.91,0.96,0.93,0.95,0.95,0.93,0.99,0.95,1
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 84, PHI 92	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.54,0.6,0.61,0.59,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.47,0.43,0.42,0.47,0.51,0.6,0.6,0.59,0.59,0.61,0.64,0.67,0.64,0.75,0.71,0.69,0.64,0.58,0.64,0.68,0.8,0.86,0.9,0.89,0.84,0.87,0.92,0.96,0.96,0.94,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.96,0.98,0.98,1	95.1%
TOR 91, MIA 103	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.6,0.6,0.64,0.65,0.67,0.7,0.58,0.61,0.66,0.67,0.73,0.75,0.74,0.72,0.66,0.64,0.73,0.74,0.83,0.84,0.83,0.84,0.87,0.87,0.92,0.88,0.83,0.81,0.86,0.95,0.97,0.99,0.98,1,1,1	94.7%
MIN 106, POR 119	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.62,0.65,0.61,0.61,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.5,0.53,0.49,0.53,0.6,0.63,0.53,0.56,0.61,0.64,0.59,0.67,0.7,0.71,0.69,0.67,0.7,0.64,0.77,0.77,0.86,0.85,0.87,0.85,0.81,0.84,0.82,0.83,0.96,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1	94.6%