NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	91		Excitement	5.1 [815]		MVP	Goran Dragic (MIA): +27.2%
Miami Heat	103		Comeback	1.1 [979]		LVP	Bismack Biyombo (TOR): -8.2%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kyle Lowry	0.12	0,0,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.02	0.02	27	56%	0.18	2	-0.05	10	90%	0.03
Lucas Nogueira	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.02	0.00	1	100%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Patrick Patterson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	0.00	0.01	7	57%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeMar DeRozan	0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0	-0.01	-0.02	-0.03	21	47%	0.04	2	-0.04	7	100%	0.04
Jason Thompson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Norman Powell	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Terrence Ross	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	8	37%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeMarre Carroll	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	4	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.04
Cory Joseph	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	9	35%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
James Johnson	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Bismack Biyombo	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	0.00	4	33%	-0.03	2	-0.05	4	50%	-0.03

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Goran Dragic	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.2,0.18,0.24,0.26,0.26,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27	0.27	0.15	0.07	-0.04	21	65%	0.32	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.02
Josh McRoberts	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.05	0.04	0.00	8	62%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	1	83%	0.04	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Josh Richardson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.01	-0.01	9	50%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Justise Winslow	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.01	0.02	9	55%	0.04	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	0.02	21	46%	0.01	1	-0.02	6	83%	-0.00
Joe Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.02	0.00	0.04	10	59%	0.04	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Luol Deng	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.09	-0.02	-0.02	5	20%	-0.05	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.5	3.5	35.9	15.7	26.3	3.5	32.4	142.9
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +38.2%

MIA +0.4%

MIA +1.0%

MIA +10.1%

MIA +0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	MIA	NBA	TOR	MIA	NBA
this game	16.1	15.1	14.9	98.9	110.8	105.1
season	16.1	15.5		107.2	104.5
opponent	15.1	14.8		103.1	104.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	17.0	16.7	16.3	14.2	16.1
MIA	14.3	14.0	14.3	17.9	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Norman Powell	5	6	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	-0.01	0	-12	12	17.6	16.0	1.63	11.8	15.3	-3.48
Lucas Nogueira	14	13	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	-0.07	1	-13	14	13.4	16.5	-3.18	14.0	15.3	-1.26
James Johnson	13	12	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.04	-2	-10	8	14.3	16.3	-2.03	17.0	14.8	2.20
Jason Thompson	9	9	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	0.07	-6	-6	0	17.6	15.9	1.66	12.6	15.4	-2.80
DeMarre Carroll	47	48	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.08	-2	-10	8	16.6	15.5	1.06	15.4	14.7	0.73
Terrence Ross	46	45	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.03	-9	-3	-6	15.8	16.3	-0.50	14.0	16.1	-2.10
Kyle Lowry	71	71	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.16	-5	-7	2	15.9	16.5	-0.61	16.0	12.1	3.92
Patrick Patterson	65	67	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.10	-8	-4	-4	16.1	16.0	0.02	14.8	15.8	-0.95
Bismack Biyombo	61	64	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.13	-7	-5	-2	16.5	15.1	1.44	15.4	14.5	0.88
DeMar DeRozan	79	81	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.16	-7	-5	-2	16.4	13.8	2.57	15.4	13.1	2.30
Cory Joseph	50	49	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.03	-15	3	-18	15.6	16.6	-1.00	14.6	15.6	-1.04

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Goran Dragic	70	71	0.69	-0.19	0.88	-0.04	25	-13	38	14.8	15.9	-1.04	17.1	12.4	4.70
Luol Deng	77	76	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.12	11	1	10	15.2	14.4	0.86	16.2	15.1	1.13
Josh McRoberts	38	36	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.08	9	3	6	13.7	16.1	-2.41	15.8	16.2	-0.41
Josh Richardson	62	63	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.18	5	7	-2	15.6	14.1	1.53	15.9	16.4	-0.47
Dwyane Wade	72	70	0.29	0.21	0.09	0.15	5	7	-2	15.7	13.1	2.51	15.4	18.0	-2.62
Joe Johnson	63	62	0.29	0.21	0.08	-0.03	11	1	10	14.7	15.8	-1.05	15.9	16.5	-0.61
Justise Winslow	49	51	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.20	-2	14	-16	16.0	14.1	1.89	16.6	15.4	1.24
Tyler Johnson	34	31	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	0.09	-4	16	-20	14.1	15.7	-1.57	14.6	16.8	-2.17

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.6,0.6,0.64,0.65,0.67,0.7,0.58,0.61,0.66,0.67,0.73,0.75,0.74,0.72,0.66,0.64,0.73,0.74,0.83,0.84,0.83,0.84,0.87,0.87,0.92,0.88,0.83,0.81,0.86,0.95,0.97,0.99,0.98,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 91, CHI 103	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.43,0.47,0.52,0.6,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.52,0.57,0.64,0.66,0.65,0.65,0.61,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.64,0.75,0.75,0.71,0.72,0.67,0.7,0.79,0.79,0.78,0.82,0.9,0.89,0.9,0.9,0.91,0.94,0.95,0.95,0.97,0.96,0.97,1,1,1,1,1	95.0%
DAL 89, PHX 99	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.44,0.47,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.48,0.6,0.58,0.49,0.53,0.6,0.65,0.68,0.66,0.61,0.6,0.68,0.78,0.78,0.77,0.77,0.7,0.7,0.67,0.68,0.71,0.87,0.92,0.84,0.93,0.9,0.87,0.9,0.92,0.88,0.86,0.88,0.95,0.95,0.99,1,1,1	95.0%
NYK 79, SAS 90	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.48,0.41,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.53,0.47,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.64,0.6,0.58,0.56,0.66,0.66,0.69,0.67,0.66,0.7,0.77,0.69,0.67,0.64,0.67,0.74,0.78,0.73,0.79,0.84,0.9,0.85,0.85,0.85,0.86,0.9,0.92,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.92,0.94,1,1	94.9%