NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	93		Excitement	9.4 [109]		MVP	Jason Terry (DAL): +64.1%
Toronto Raptors	91		Comeback	35.2 [22]		LVP	Marquis Daniels (DAL): -28.8%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Terry	0.64	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.22,0.64	0.17	0.49	0.02	18	68%	0.64	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.12
Dirk Nowitzki	0.47	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.2,0.15,0.11,0.11,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.47	0.07	0.38	-0.02	29	48%	0.47	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Devin Harris	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.05	0.01	-0.04	11	64%	0.22	2	-0.11	3	67%	-0.00
Darrell Armstrong	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	0.01	4	25%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeSagana Diop	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	1	100%	0.02	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Keith Van Horn	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	10	36%	-0.03	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Erick Dampier	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.04	-0.08	-0.00	6	29%	-0.12	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Marquis Daniels	-0.29	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.23,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29	-0.11	-0.17	0.01	9	30%	-0.21	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Matt Bonner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.14	0.14	0.04	0.10	0.00	10	52%	0.14	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Mike James	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.15,0.15,0.08,0.14,0.29,0.29,0.26,0.12	0.12	0.08	0.07	0.02	17	61%	0.21	2	-0.09	2	100%	0.02
Morris Peterson	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	-0.00	0.10	-0.01	9	50%	0.13	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jalen Rose	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.02	0.00	7	47%	0.02	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Joey Graham	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.05	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Darrick Martin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Bosh	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.01,-0.04	-0.04	0.07	-0.08	0.03	14	60%	0.11	3	-0.15	15	80%	0.01
Jose Calderon	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.08	0.03	0.00	10	40%	0.03	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Rafael Araujo	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Charlie Villanueva	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	-0.00	9	22%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.4	2.4	27.0	17.5	22.4	2.4	35.6	131.7
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +57.4%

TOR -18.7%

TOR -7.3%

DAL +18.4%

DAL +0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	TOR	NBA	DAL	TOR	NBA
this game	16.0	17.1	15.6	108.1	103.4	104.4
season	16.4	15.6		109.0	107.3
opponent	15.4	15.6		110.5	102.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	13.7	17.4	16.6	16.5	16.0
TOR	15.6	16.1	21.3	16.2	17.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Keith Van Horn	48	46	0.91	-0.41	1.32	0.68	8	-6	14	14.2	18.3	-4.10	17.4	16.8	0.67
Jason Terry	74	76	0.65	-0.15	0.81	0.45	7	-5	12	16.0	15.8	0.17	16.3	22.0	-5.66
Dirk Nowitzki	71	74	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.50	4	-2	6	16.2	14.9	1.26	17.2	16.6	0.64
Darrell Armstrong	38	41	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.12	8	-6	14	15.4	16.4	-0.95	16.9	17.3	-0.49
Erick Dampier	49	52	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.00	6	-4	10	16.4	15.5	0.91	17.4	16.7	0.66
Devin Harris	51	51	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.33	-8	10	-18	16.5	15.2	1.36	18.4	15.4	2.99
DeSagana Diop	32	29	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	0.04	-6	8	-14	16.5	15.7	0.78	17.5	16.9	0.60
Marquis Daniels	67	71	-0.17	0.67	-0.85	0.09	-9	11	-20	16.4	14.6	1.79	16.5	19.6	-3.14

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Darrick Martin	8	9	0.05	-0.55	0.59	-0.01	2	-4	6	17.9	17.0	0.84	15.4	16.0	-0.59
Matt Bonner	52	52	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.53	14	-16	30	17.3	16.9	0.43	16.8	14.7	2.05
Jalen Rose	37	38	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.05	-3	1	-4	18.1	16.4	1.62	15.3	16.5	-1.28
Charlie Villanueva	38	38	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.09	-3	1	-4	17.9	16.5	1.42	14.3	17.3	-2.93
Joey Graham	20	21	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.10	-3	1	-4	18.7	16.6	2.12	15.6	16.1	-0.47
Rafael Araujo	21	20	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	0.06	-9	7	-16	16.1	17.4	-1.34	15.1	16.2	-1.08
Morris Peterson	53	50	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.35	1	-3	4	16.4	18.1	-1.71	16.6	15.1	1.54
Mike James	73	70	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.35	-2	0	-2	16.8	18.5	-1.63	15.7	17.4	-1.72
Jose Calderon	73	70	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.47	-1	-1	0	16.9	18.3	-1.39	16.4	14.1	2.28
Chris Bosh	65	62	-0.51	0.01	-0.51	-0.33	-6	4	-10	16.8	17.9	-1.08	16.6	14.5	2.11

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.37,0.39,0.37,0.36,0.32,0.32,0.3,0.38,0.38,0.43,0.4,0.37,0.34,0.4,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.6,0.51,0.45,0.36,0.36,0.35,0.38,0.41,0.48,0.55,0.48,0.38,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.53,0.47,0.54,0.46,0.38,0.72,0.94,0.9,0
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 88, IND 87	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.47,0.43,0.37,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.4,0.38,0.36,0.47,0.49,0.54,0.47,0.42,0.48,0.42,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.48,0.45,0.39,0.41,0.48,0.56,0.44,0.52,0.5,0.38,0.38,0.33,0.53,0.59,0.65,0.6,0.75,0.72,0.77,0.72,0	90.4%
GSW 95, POR 90	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.49,0.48,0.37,0.37,0.36,0.32,0.37,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.3,0.33,0.29,0.31,0.33,0.44,0.41,0.39,0.39,0.44,0.39,0.46,0.4,0.37,0.42,0.42,0.33,0.35,0.35,0.34,0.48,0.44,0.56,0.5,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.66,0.68,0.54,0.68,0.73,0	90.3%
DEN 100, MIA 92	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.53,0.5,0.55,0.5,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.4,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.5,0.45,0.46,0.42,0.42,0.36,0.42,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.47,0.44,0.5,0.34,0.43,0.57,0.53,0.47,0.53,0.27,0.53,0.46,0.86,0.73,0	90.1%