NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	100		Excitement	8.9 [153]		MVP	Gary Payton (MIA): +21.9%
Miami Heat	92		Comeback	7.6 [128]		LVP	James Posey (MIA): -30.4%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Carmelo Anthony	0.20	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,0.02,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.06,0.12,0.14,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.1,0.15,0.2	0.07	0.12	-0.01	30	54%	0.34	3	-0.14	14	93%	0.15
Greg Buckner	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.16,0.09,0.09,0.01,0.01,0.19	0.04	0.15	-0.01	10	64%	0.27	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Marcus Camby	0.18	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.18	0.02	0.17	0.01	15	50%	0.20	1	-0.01	6	100%	0.06
Andre Miller	0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.12,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.04	0.05	0.00	6	63%	0.20	5	-0.19	7	86%	0.04
Eduardo Najera	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.01	0.00	5	40%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Francisco Elson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.01	0.00	3	37%	0.01	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Linas Kleiza	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	0.00	4	30%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Earl Boykins	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.08	-0.10	-0.01	8	33%	-0.08	2	-0.09	2	100%	0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gary Payton	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,0.04,0.19,0.28,0.22,0.22	0.22	-0.02	0.22	-0.01	11	54%	0.28	3	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.09,-0.08,-0.07,-0.01,0.03,0.06,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.15,0.15,0.13	0.13	0.03	0.11	0.02	23	55%	0.27	5	-0.14	21	81%	0.05
Wayne Simien	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.02	0.00	3	67%	0.07	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Gerald Fitch	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.02	-0.00	6	42%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antoine Walker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.01	0.01	0.08	-0.08	-0.01	12	68%	0.07	2	-0.06	1	100%	0.01
Jason Kapono	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.08	-0.01	-0.03	6	29%	-0.01	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.02
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	8	35%	-0.03	1	-0.03	1	0%	-0.01
James Posey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.17,-0.3	-0.30	-0.05	-0.25	0.01	6	43%	-0.10	2	-0.20	2	50%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.0	3.3	29.6	16.6	30.1	2.4	43.7	148.7
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +9.7%

DEN +25.3%

DEN +5.5%

DEN +5.3%

DEN +4.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	MIA	NBA	DEN	MIA	NBA
this game	13.9	16.2	15.6	105.3	95.8	104.4
season	14.4	15.5		103.5	106.1
opponent	15.5	15.9		102.3	103.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	13.4	12.2	17.1	13.7	13.9
MIA	17.3	15.0	18.0	15.1	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marcus Camby	70	70	0.68	-0.18	0.87	0.33	12	-4	16	14.0	13.8	0.17	16.1	16.6	-0.54
Andre Miller	63	65	0.65	-0.15	0.79	0.24	14	-6	20	13.4	15.0	-1.67	16.9	14.7	2.23
Carmelo Anthony	82	84	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.33	10	-2	12	13.7	15.1	-1.33	16.5	14.0	2.54
Greg Buckner	73	72	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.25	9	-1	10	13.7	14.6	-0.92	15.5	18.4	-2.87
Eduardo Najera	45	48	0.14	0.36	-0.21	0.26	-4	12	-16	13.6	14.2	-0.62	14.8	17.6	-2.85
Francisco Elson	59	59	0.09	0.41	-0.31	-0.02	4	4	0	14.5	13.1	1.40	17.7	13.9	3.79
Earl Boykins	53	51	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.04	-2	10	-12	14.7	13.0	1.66	15.7	16.8	-1.14
Linas Kleiza	30	31	-0.18	0.68	-0.85	-0.09	-3	11	-14	14.2	13.8	0.35	16.2	16.2	-0.08

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Kapono	25	23	0.07	-0.57	0.64	0.10	-1	-7	6	14.5	16.8	-2.30	10.5	15.0	-4.49
Gerald Fitch	25	24	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	0.03	-2	-6	4	15.4	16.5	-1.11	13.4	14.1	-0.74
Wayne Simien	18	18	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	-0.02	-1	-7	6	15.6	16.4	-0.82	15.7	13.5	2.22
Alonzo Mourning	37	38	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	0.01	-2	-6	4	17.2	15.6	1.58	12.7	14.8	-2.07
Antoine Walker	65	63	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.22	-3	-5	2	15.8	17.0	-1.20	13.9	14.1	-0.21
James Posey	78	78	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	-0.39	-3	-5	2	16.9	13.1	3.82	14.7	10.3	4.42
Dwyane Wade	84	84	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.26	-8	0	-8	15.8	19.2	-3.46	14.3	11.2	3.10
Gary Payton	76	76	-0.57	0.07	-0.63	-0.27	-10	2	-12	16.8	14.0	2.74	13.9	13.9	-0.03
Udonis Haslem	72	71	-0.60	0.10	-0.70	-0.30	-10	2	-12	16.2	16.2	0.07	14.2	13.1	1.07

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.53,0.5,0.55,0.5,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.4,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.5,0.45,0.46,0.42,0.42,0.36,0.42,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.47,0.44,0.5,0.34,0.43,0.57,0.53,0.47,0.53,0.27,0.53,0.46,0.86,0.73,0
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 81, TOR 80	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.63,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.41,0.36,0.48,0.44,0.41,0.49,0.41,0.37,0.3,0.3,0.29,0.32,0.41,0.45,0.48,0.56,0.64,0.46,0.57,0.62,0.58,0.53,0.41,0.41,0.46,0.45,0.63,0.85,0.73,0	91.6%
SAS 92, DAL 90	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.4,0.46,0.42,0.39,0.43,0.43,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.47,0.49,0.52,0.56,0.58,0.49,0.49,0.4,0.46,0.45,0.48,0.55,0.52,0.41,0.38,0.44,0.48,0.44,0.46,0.38,0.47,0.58,0.63,0.59,0.54,0.46,0.53,0.54,0.55,0.58,0	91.4%
DEN 106, DAL 105	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.57,0.56,0.58,0.53,0.59,0.61,0.6,0.62,0.54,0.5,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.58,0.48,0.47,0.44,0.49,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.4,0.42,0.33,0.39,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.41,0.48,0.56,0.54,0.38,0.43,0.57,0.63,0.64,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.72,0.84,0.91,0	90.6%