NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Washington Wizards	83		Excitement	5.1 [807]		MVP	Hedo Turkoglu (ORL): +13.9%
Orlando Magic	91		Comeback	1.0 [1249]		LVP	Gilbert Arenas (WAS): -17.0%

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Antawn Jamison	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09	0.09	0.02	0.02	19	62%	0.13	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Jared Jeffries	0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.01	-0.01	4	50%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Antonio Daniels	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	-0.01	0.01	7	56%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Etan Thomas	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Michael Ruffin	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jarvis Hayes	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.06	-0.00	-0.06	13	39%	0.02	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Chucky Atkins	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.00	0.00	7	40%	-0.03	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.01
Brendan Haywood	-0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	2	50%	0.01	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Caron Butler	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	5	17%	-0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Gilbert Arenas	-0.17	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.12,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.18,-0.17,-0.17,-0.2,-0.2,-0.22,-0.22,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.09	-0.06	0.02	19	42%	-0.05	4	-0.12	7	86%	0.00

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.08	0.04	-0.02	18	57%	0.16	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.01
Tony Battie	0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.07	0.03	-0.01	9	67%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeShawn Stevenson	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.04	0.05	-0.01	10	60%	0.13	2	-0.04	5	60%	-0.01
Jameer Nelson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.12,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02	0.02	-0.02	0.04	-0.01	12	58%	0.12	4	-0.10	2	50%	-0.02
Kelvin Cato	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keyon Dooling	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.07	0.02	-0.03	8	61%	0.09	6	-0.11	2	100%	0.01
Terence Morris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Pat Garrity	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	33%	-0.00	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Mario Kasun	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	3	67%	0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Howard	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.09	0.00	-0.04	8	28%	-0.02	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.3	2.8	26.5	16.6	23.7	2.4	35.2	129.6
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +50.3%

ORL +0.6%

ORL +6.8%

WAS -7.5%

WAS -0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	WAS	ORL	NBA	WAS	ORL	NBA
this game	14.6	18.5	15.6	95.4	104.6	104.4
season	15.1	16.4		107.4	104.4
opponent	15.7	15.6		105.9	105.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
WAS	13.4	15.5	14.4	15.3	14.6
ORL	20.3	18.0	16.9	19.0	18.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jared Jeffries	34	32	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	-0.04	-1	-7	6	15.0	14.4	0.62	19.2	18.1	1.11
Etan Thomas	34	34	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	-0.14	0	-8	8	15.2	14.3	0.91	18.0	18.8	-0.79
Chucky Atkins	23	23	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	0.02	-6	-2	-4	13.9	14.9	-0.96	20.1	17.9	2.24
Caron Butler	36	37	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	-0.15	-2	-6	4	14.9	14.4	0.50	19.5	17.8	1.70
Jarvis Hayes	53	55	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.18	-1	-7	6	14.2	15.3	-1.11	18.0	19.3	-1.31
Brendan Haywood	38	38	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.04	-7	-1	-6	14.8	14.5	0.30	19.3	17.9	1.39
Michael Ruffin	25	26	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.12	-6	-2	-4	14.7	14.6	0.08	16.5	19.3	-2.83
Antonio Daniels	43	42	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.19	-5	-3	-2	14.7	14.6	0.11	19.1	17.9	1.28
Antawn Jamison	71	70	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.22	-5	-3	-2	14.4	15.7	-1.38	17.9	20.8	-2.91
Gilbert Arenas	78	78	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.26	-7	-1	-6	14.7	14.1	0.57	18.2	20.7	-2.44

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
DeShawn Stevenson	75	74	0.50	0.00	0.49	0.32	6	2	4	18.4	19.2	-0.79	14.9	13.2	1.63
Dwight Howard	46	47	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.06	10	-2	12	19.2	17.7	1.51	14.9	14.3	0.50
Hedo Turkoglu	65	65	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.12	8	0	8	18.6	18.2	0.40	14.6	14.5	0.10
Jameer Nelson	47	47	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.23	1	7	-6	18.4	18.6	-0.22	13.7	15.7	-2.00
Kelvin Cato	43	44	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.15	3	5	-2	19.2	17.8	1.34	14.5	14.7	-0.20
Keyon Dooling	55	54	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.17	2	6	-4	18.2	19.0	-0.87	14.6	14.6	0.02
Terence Morris	29	30	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.06	5	3	2	19.3	18.1	1.29	14.7	14.6	0.12
Mario Kasun	14	13	0.15	0.35	-0.19	0.04	4	4	0	15.6	19.0	-3.47	15.7	14.4	1.26
Tony Battie	37	39	0.15	0.35	-0.21	0.09	2	6	-4	17.9	18.9	-0.93	14.4	14.8	-0.33
Pat Garrity	24	22	0.06	0.44	-0.39	0.09	-1	9	-10	18.4	18.5	-0.15	15.0	14.5	0.45

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.56,0.61,0.65,0.66,0.63,0.62,0.61,0.51,0.6,0.6,0.66,0.68,0.72,0.64,0.69,0.69,0.72,0.66,0.71,0.69,0.74,0.81,0.82,0.84,0.83,0.77,0.8,0.81,0.76,0.74,0.77,0.69,0.66,0.74,0.75,0.87,0.87,0.9,0.86,0.91,0.92,0.91,0.95,0.92,0.97,1,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 92, SAS 100	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.67,0.65,0.65,0.66,0.72,0.69,0.62,0.7,0.72,0.74,0.73,0.75,0.69,0.69,0.74,0.73,0.69,0.76,0.81,0.84,0.8,0.76,0.77,0.72,0.76,0.76,0.74,0.71,0.69,0.69,0.81,0.79,0.85,0.9,0.79,0.87,0.9,0.89,0.94,0.87,0.96,0.99,1,1,1	94.8%
WAS 101, SEA 111	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.54,0.56,0.59,0.59,0.61,0.62,0.6,0.64,0.7,0.68,0.72,0.67,0.67,0.65,0.63,0.64,0.69,0.74,0.75,0.84,0.82,0.77,0.8,0.8,0.81,0.81,0.8,0.88,0.81,0.7,0.67,0.78,0.78,0.82,0.88,0.91,0.93,0.98,0.95,0.96,0.9,0.95,1,1,1	94.8%
CLE 103, GSW 122	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.57,0.64,0.6,0.59,0.57,0.63,0.62,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.64,0.69,0.65,0.63,0.74,0.75,0.76,0.77,0.75,0.86,0.84,0.74,0.77,0.8,0.76,0.81,0.74,0.71,0.75,0.73,0.84,0.78,0.87,0.81,0.94,0.92,0.94,0.99,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.6%