NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	93		Excitement	9.3 [117]		MVP	Theo Ratliff (POR): +48.7%
Portland Trail Blazers	96		Comeback	4.3 [397]		LVP	Ben Gordon (CHI): -25.6%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Sweetney	0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.1,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.21,0.21,0.31,0.21,0.21	0.14	0.08	0.00	15	71%	0.24	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Tyson Chandler	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	4	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Eric Piatkowski	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darius Songaila	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kirk Hinrich	-0.02	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.1,-0.02	0.02	-0.04	0.01	9	61%	0.04	2	-0.06	5	100%	0.03
Othella Harrington	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	5	40%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jannero Pargo	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	3	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luol Deng	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0,0,0,0,-0.11	-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	12	31%	-0.11	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Andres Nocioni	-0.13	0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,-0.04,0,0,-0.06,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.05	-0.08	-0.00	20	45%	-0.02	3	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Chris Duhon	-0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.12	-0.08	-0.01	10	25%	-0.12	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.02
Ben Gordon	-0.26	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.26	0.03	-0.27	0.02	13	58%	-0.03	2	-0.22	0	0%	0.00

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Theo Ratliff	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.49	0.49	0.09	0.40	0.00	4	73%	0.49	0	0.00	7	71%	-0.07
Joel Przybilla	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.00	4	64%	0.06	1	-0.03	6	50%	-0.05
Zach Randolph	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.06	-0.05	0.01	15	56%	0.04	1	-0.03	9	67%	-0.09
Sergei Monia	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ruben Patterson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	5	42%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Martell Webster	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jarrett Jack	0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	0.01	5	79%	0.12	4	-0.15	4	100%	0.02
Juan Dixon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.16,0.06,-0.04	-0.04	0.06	-0.07	0.02	10	64%	0.02	2	-0.05	5	100%	0.06
Darius Miles	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.02	-0.07	-0.00	12	50%	0.07	3	-0.15	4	50%	-0.03
Sebastian Telfair	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.23	-0.23	-0.06	-0.18	-0.01	10	40%	-0.18	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	30.7	1.7	25.1	15.5	24.3	1.7	36.9	135.9
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +56.9%

POR +8.3%

CHI -14.6%

POR +1.1%

CHI -1.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	POR	NBA	CHI	POR	NBA
this game	15.9	17.4	15.6	105.7	112.9	104.4
season	14.4	16.6		102.6	99.4
opponent	15.7	16.1		109.8	102.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	14.6	17.5	15.6	15.8	15.9
POR	17.5	15.2	19.6	17.8	17.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Darius Songaila	17	18	0.20	-0.70	0.89	-0.07	9	-12	21	18.3	15.3	3.00	21.0	16.5	4.51
Kirk Hinrich	51	52	0.05	-0.55	0.59	-0.42	16	-19	35	16.6	14.8	1.79	17.9	16.8	1.08
Eric Piatkowski	4	3	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.02	0	-3	3	11.2	16.1	-4.85	14.3	17.6	-3.23
Ben Gordon	37	37	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.03	-3	0	-3	16.1	15.7	0.36	17.3	17.6	-0.31
Jannero Pargo	17	16	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	0.00	-6	3	-9	16.6	15.7	0.88	18.7	17.2	1.53
Tyson Chandler	33	31	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.27	2	-5	7	16.2	15.7	0.59	19.5	16.3	3.21
Luol Deng	57	55	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.09	-7	4	-11	15.2	17.0	-1.79	16.3	19.6	-3.28
Othella Harrington	28	26	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	0.04	-14	11	-25	15.4	16.1	-0.65	13.8	19.0	-5.19
Michael Sweetney	47	46	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.41	1	-4	5	15.6	16.2	-0.69	18.0	16.7	1.30
Andres Nocioni	82	79	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.44	0	-3	3	16.0	14.2	1.83	17.5	17.0	0.48
Chris Duhon	67	62	-0.74	0.24	-0.97	-0.36	-13	10	-23	15.3	17.8	-2.48	17.0	18.6	-1.53

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Sebastian Telfair	51	52	1.23	-0.73	1.95	0.82	14	-11	25	17.0	18.1	-1.02	15.9	15.8	0.07
Juan Dixon	59	62	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.33	9	-6	15	16.2	20.4	-4.23	14.9	18.2	-3.34
Darius Miles	74	77	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.43	5	-2	7	17.3	18.2	-0.84	16.2	13.9	2.25
Ruben Patterson	30	29	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.54	-6	9	-15	18.2	17.1	1.11	13.1	17.3	-4.19
Joel Przybilla	46	48	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.06	10	-7	17	16.8	18.3	-1.50	16.4	15.2	1.19
Theo Ratliff	28	30	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.39	-6	9	-15	17.0	17.7	-0.72	15.5	16.1	-0.57
Martell Webster	7	7	0.02	0.48	-0.46	-0.04	2	1	1	16.0	17.6	-1.58	13.7	16.1	-2.35
Zach Randolph	70	74	-0.03	0.53	-0.57	-0.09	2	1	1	18.0	14.7	3.38	16.5	12.7	3.76
Sergei Monia	9	9	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	0.03	-4	7	-11	20.2	17.1	3.10	17.7	15.7	2.00
Jarrett Jack	51	52	-0.73	1.23	-1.95	-0.40	-11	14	-25	18.9	15.3	3.54	17.0	14.2	2.80

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.4,0.41,0.44,0.38,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.45,0.51,0.47,0.4,0.39,0.44,0.48,0.56,0.61,0.7,0.75,0.68,0.69,0.61,0.59,0.67,0.58,0.62,0.65,0.63,0.67,0.75,0.85,0.87,0.79,0.62,0.77,0.69,0.76,0.66,0.47,0.36,0.45,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 86, OKC 87	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.46,0.44,0.39,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.48,0.52,0.58,0.61,0.56,0.51,0.59,0.63,0.64,0.64,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.63,0.63,0.68,0.62,0.78,0.75,0.62,0.53,0.59,0.59,0.46,0.47,0.45,0.57,0.73,1	90.8%
NOH 87, MIA 91	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.41,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.61,0.67,0.73,0.8,0.81,0.69,0.64,0.61,0.64,0.62,0.62,0.72,0.79,0.63,0.79,0.78,0.81,0.79,0.8,0.68,0.59,0.47,0.6,0.44,0.61,0.45,0.73,1	90.6%
PHI 97, CHA 100	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.61,0.6,0.55,0.6,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.42,0.51,0.46,0.39,0.39,0.41,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.67,0.71,0.63,0.58,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.64,0.74,0.78,0.75,0.71,0.81,0.64,0.65,0.73,0.68,0.39,0.55,0.72,1	90.6%