NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	94		Excitement	3.2 [1178]		MVP	Jameer Nelson (ORL): +4.3%
Detroit Pistons	103		Comeback	1.1 [1215]		LVP	Steve Francis (ORL): -10.7%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jameer Nelson	0.04	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.12	-0.00	0.08	18	70%	0.09	2	-0.04	7	71%	-0.00
Andre Barrett	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.04	0.00	-0.04	6	57%	0.03	3	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Mario Kasun	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	0.00	0.02	4	70%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Mark Jones	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.05	0.00	-0.03	5	43%	-0.00	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.00
Stacey Augmon	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.02	8	55%	-0.00	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.00
Dwight Howard	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	18	44%	-0.03	1	-0.00	3	100%	0.01
Brandon Hunter	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	0.00	0.01	8	43%	-0.04	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.00
Tony Battie	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.08	-0.00	-0.02	5	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steve Francis	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.12	-0.01	-0.02	13	23%	-0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ben Wallace	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.00	-0.03	8	50%	0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Antonio McDyess	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.00	-0.01	7	67%	0.06	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.01
Tayshaun Prince	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	4	87%	0.07	3	-0.05	8	100%	0.03
Chauncey Billups	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	8	53%	0.02	1	-0.01	3	67%	-0.00
Carlos Arroyo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	-0.00	10	56%	0.02	1	-0.02	5	80%	-0.00
Darko Milicic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.00	2	50%	0.00
Darvin Ham	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Richard Hamilton	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	-0.00	0.01	11	58%	0.03	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Elden Campbell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.05	0.00	-0.04	4	42%	0.00	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.01
Rasheed Wallace	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	8	61%	0.04	3	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Lindsey Hunter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.06	0.00	-0.03	7	33%	-0.01	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Carlos Delfino	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.10	0.00	-0.03	6	19%	-0.06	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	496.2	2.7	32.1	16.7	26.1	1.0	35.0	609.8
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +29.5%

DET +6.3%

DET +18.3%

ORL -7.1%

DET +2.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	DET	NBA	ORL	DET	NBA
this game	13.9	16.2	15.5	98.9	107.3	104.0
season	14.3	16.7		102.9	103.5
opponent	15.9	15.5		98.9	105.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	15.6	13.1	15.7	11.9	13.9
DET	15.1	13.6	21.4	16.2	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brandon Hunter	25	26	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.24	7	-16	23	11.9	14.6	-2.72	16.2	16.2	0.02
Mario Kasun	40	39	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	-0.37	8	-17	25	12.0	15.3	-3.37	18.0	15.0	3.04
Stacey Augmon	46	45	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.09	-3	-6	3	15.2	12.7	2.55	15.7	16.7	-1.04
Andre Barrett	44	44	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.12	-4	-5	1	12.0	15.6	-3.55	16.1	16.3	-0.24
Mark Jones	48	49	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.26	0	-9	9	13.0	14.9	-1.96	16.5	15.9	0.60
Tony Battie	57	57	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	0.02	-13	4	-17	14.9	12.5	2.33	15.0	17.9	-2.91
Jameer Nelson	79	81	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.26	-4	-5	1	13.9	14.2	-0.31	16.1	16.7	-0.61
Steve Francis	68	69	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	0.02	-16	7	-23	15.0	11.2	3.83	16.6	15.3	1.23
Dwight Howard	68	70	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	0.12	-20	11	-31	15.0	11.1	3.88	16.2	16.3	-0.17

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Richard Hamilton	49	48	0.39	0.11	0.28	-0.11	17	-8	25	16.2	16.3	-0.11	15.2	12.7	2.51
Ben Wallace	55	54	0.37	0.13	0.23	-0.01	13	-4	17	16.6	15.7	0.89	15.6	11.7	3.99
Tayshaun Prince	60	58	0.34	0.16	0.17	0.25	3	6	-3	16.2	16.3	-0.14	14.7	12.7	2.00
Chauncey Billups	55	53	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.06	9	0	9	16.3	16.0	0.30	15.3	12.2	3.11
Antonio McDyess	40	39	0.28	0.22	0.05	-0.08	12	-3	15	16.3	16.2	0.14	13.4	14.3	-0.92
Rasheed Wallace	47	47	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.03	7	2	5	15.1	17.3	-2.22	15.0	12.9	2.17
Carlos Arroyo	41	42	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.18	0	9	-9	16.0	16.3	-0.30	12.2	15.3	-3.11
Carlos Delfino	42	42	0.14	0.36	-0.21	0.17	-1	10	-11	17.2	15.5	1.69	12.0	15.4	-3.37
Lindsey Hunter	34	35	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.07	2	7	-5	15.5	16.6	-1.07	14.4	13.7	0.70
Elden Campbell	32	33	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.09	1	8	-7	16.0	16.3	-0.38	12.3	14.8	-2.49
Darko Milicic	15	15	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.32	-11	20	-31	17.7	15.9	1.80	9.8	14.7	-4.90
Darvin Ham	10	9	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.21	-7	16	-23	16.6	16.2	0.43	8.4	14.5	-6.06

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.61,0.66,0.72,0.71,0.71,0.77,0.74,0.74,0.75,0.81,0.78,0.84,0.88,0.91,0.89,0.89,0.91,0.93,0.92,0.9,0.85,0.91,0.92,0.91,0.91,0.91,0.94,0.91,0.92,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.92,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 87, IND 120	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.52,0.56,0.59,0.59,0.66,0.72,0.71,0.68,0.72,0.74,0.7,0.75,0.73,0.8,0.84,0.88,0.85,0.87,0.91,0.89,0.94,0.95,0.94,0.9,0.92,0.88,0.92,0.93,0.96,0.97,0.95,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.9%
SEA 84, CHI 99	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.64,0.64,0.68,0.75,0.76,0.76,0.75,0.76,0.76,0.75,0.76,0.8,0.82,0.83,0.87,0.86,0.87,0.86,0.9,0.92,0.93,0.93,0.93,0.96,0.96,0.94,0.94,0.96,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.96,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	96.9%
ATL 72, WAS 103	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.63,0.66,0.7,0.69,0.7,0.72,0.78,0.78,0.81,0.81,0.82,0.86,0.86,0.92,0.86,0.85,0.84,0.88,0.86,0.88,0.87,0.92,0.96,0.96,0.94,0.96,0.96,0.94,0.97,0.99,0.98,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.8%