NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	101		Excitement	8.7 [173]		MVP	Rafer Alston (TOR): +35.5%
Toronto Raptors	109		Comeback	7.8 [380]		LVP	Josh Childress (ATL): -13.0%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Collier	0.04	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.07	-0.00	0.02	7	78%	0.06	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Michael Stewart	0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.00	2	100%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tony Delk	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.06,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.01,0.02	0.05	-0.08	-0.05	17	56%	0.16	1	-0.15	2	100%	0.02
Royal Ivey	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.02	0.02	-0.02	6	33%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Predrag Drobnjak	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.15,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.05	-0.04	-0.01	17	57%	0.02	1	-0.01	3	67%	0.00
Josh Smith	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03	0.01	-0.04	-0.00	13	54%	0.00	1	-0.03	9	56%	-0.03
Donta Smith	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.02	2	0%	-0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Tyronn Lue	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.12,-0.09,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,0,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	12	40%	-0.07	0	0.00	6	83%	0.09
Boris Diaw	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.02	-0.02	5	0%	-0.07	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Josh Childress	-0.13	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.15	-0.02	-0.04	7	39%	-0.02	5	-0.11	4	75%	-0.01

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rafer Alston	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.29,0.29,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.35	0.35	0.03	0.29	-0.03	16	58%	0.38	2	-0.02	4	50%	-0.02
Morris Peterson	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.03,0.09,0.09,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.03	0.04	-0.01	21	52%	0.08	0	0.00	8	75%	0.02
Pape Sow	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.01	0.00	1	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Milt Palacio	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.04	-0.07	0.02	11	68%	-0.01	2	-0.04	6	83%	0.03
Chris Bosh	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.08	0.02	0.00	8	46%	0.01	2	-0.07	8	87%	0.05
Jalen Rose	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.02,-0.06,-0.03,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.22,-0.12,-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.06	0.02	26	52%	-0.03	3	-0.05	6	100%	0.05
Matt Bonner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.08	-0.02	-0.01	4	0%	-0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	26.2	2.6	26.1	15.4	30.4	2.3	38.4	2.4	11.4	155.3
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	1.9	17.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +17.1%

ATL -5.7%

TOR +13.8%

TOR +19.6%

TOR +5.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	TOR	NBA	ATL	TOR	NBA
this game	15.3	15.2	15.5	98.1	103.8	104.0
season	15.6	15.1		98.1	104.8
opponent	15.4	15.1		106.8	108.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
ATL	12.7	19.2	15.0	15.5	14.3	15.3
TOR	15.0	15.0	15.6	14.5	17.1	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Donta Smith	13	16	0.27	-0.77	1.05	0.10	6	-14	20	16.5	15.2	1.28	16.2	15.1	1.12
Boris Diaw	27	28	0.18	-0.68	0.87	0.27	-3	-5	2	16.1	15.1	1.05	13.9	15.7	-1.83
Royal Ivey	34	33	0.13	-0.63	0.75	0.13	0	-8	8	18.5	13.8	4.67	15.8	15.0	0.89
Jason Collier	39	41	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.00	-1	-7	6	14.1	16.1	-2.03	15.0	15.4	-0.35
Josh Childress	84	83	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	0.02	-4	-4	0	15.3	15.5	-0.16	14.9	16.5	-1.54
Michael Stewart	21	21	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	0.11	-11	3	-14	14.2	15.6	-1.38	16.2	15.0	1.25
Predrag Drobnjak	72	72	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.56	5	-13	18	15.8	14.3	1.50	15.0	15.8	-0.76
Tony Delk	74	75	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.23	-8	0	-8	16.3	13.0	3.26	15.4	14.9	0.43
Josh Smith	80	82	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.40	-5	-3	-2	14.4	18.6	-4.21	15.4	14.6	0.86
Tyronn Lue	62	65	-0.68	0.18	-0.86	-0.36	-11	3	-14	14.0	17.4	-3.37	15.0	15.6	-0.54

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Milt Palacio	61	60	0.69	-0.19	0.88	0.28	14	-6	20	15.6	14.7	0.96	17.0	13.0	4.06
Rafer Alston	100	98	0.55	-0.05	0.59	0.31	8	0	8	15.3	14.8	0.46	15.1	20.8	-5.74
Jalen Rose	96	94	0.50	-0.00	0.51	0.33	6	2	4	15.1	16.6	-1.44	15.0	19.0	-4.01
Morris Peterson	98	96	0.50	-0.00	0.51	0.30	7	1	6	15.4	13.3	2.09	15.1	18.4	-3.31
Chris Bosh	94	93	0.40	0.10	0.31	0.26	5	3	2	15.2	15.5	-0.24	15.0	18.2	-3.17
Matt Bonner	47	45	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	-0.16	4	4	0	14.9	15.5	-0.59	15.9	14.9	1.05
Pape Sow	29	29	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.01	-4	12	-16	14.9	15.4	-0.52	14.7	15.6	-0.86

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.47,0.44,0.37,0.3,0.25,0.25,0.24,0.2,0.19,0.18,0.2,0.16,0.14,0.17,0.2,0.17,0.15,0.18,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.23,0.33,0.33,0.24,0.35,0.32,0.38,0.37,0.37,0.4,0.34,0.26,0.29,0.33,0.27,0.21,0.4,0.6,0.55,0.33,0.55,0.95,0.54,0.75,0.85,0.55,0.97,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 90, SAS 97	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.43,0.48,0.46,0.4,0.37,0.41,0.33,0.31,0.27,0.26,0.22,0.28,0.29,0.21,0.19,0.18,0.21,0.22,0.18,0.19,0.14,0.18,0.19,0.21,0.21,0.24,0.27,0.23,0.26,0.21,0.24,0.33,0.25,0.19,0.15,0.21,0.33,0.32,0.47,0.4,0.39,0.32,0.55,0.56,0.72,0.54,0.61,0.63,0.9,0.93,1	88.6%
PHI 97, LAC 103	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.44,0.38,0.37,0.36,0.35,0.33,0.27,0.21,0.26,0.28,0.24,0.18,0.23,0.22,0.28,0.21,0.22,0.28,0.31,0.33,0.37,0.48,0.37,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.36,0.28,0.28,0.37,0.33,0.28,0.34,0.26,0.33,0.38,0.37,0.36,0.35,0.4,0.61,0.45,0.78,0.73,0.54,0.55,0.64,0.43,0.77,1	88.4%
PHI 103, MIN 108	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.48,0.42,0.43,0.36,0.34,0.3,0.26,0.29,0.26,0.26,0.24,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.2,0.14,0.13,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.12,0.13,0.11,0.16,0.18,0.29,0.34,0.41,0.37,0.44,0.42,0.48,0.62,0.58,0.37,0.31,0.54,0.67,0.55,0.72,0.77,0.84,0.54,0.79,0.78,0.9,0.96,1	87.8%