NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Los Angeles Lakers	94		Excitement	9.6 [94]		MVP	Brent Barry (SAS): +48.7%
San Antonio Spurs	95		Comeback	3.5 [600]		LVP	Kobe Bryant (LAL): -53.2%

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Caron Butler	0.19	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.03,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.15,0.13,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.19	0.02	0.17	0.00	21	57%	0.28	3	-0.09	5	80%	0.04
Brian Grant	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.11	0.03	0.08	0.00	8	62%	0.13	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Slava Medvedenko	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.00	3	67%	0.04	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Jumaine Jones	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.01	6	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tierre Brown	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	7	37%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Chris Mihm	-0.06	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.01	6	47%	-0.02	2	-0.04	5	40%	-0.03
Devean George	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.06	0.01	-0.06	0.01	6	67%	-0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Luke Walton	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	4	56%	0.02	3	-0.12	1	100%	0.00
Chucky Atkins	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.14,-0.14	-0.01	-0.13	-0.00	9	39%	-0.14	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kobe Bryant	-0.53	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.16,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.17,-0.25,-0.25,-0.53	-0.16	-0.38	-0.01	19	37%	-0.38	5	-0.15	2	100%	0.02

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brent Barry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.49	0.49	0.07	0.40	-0.01	14	62%	0.52	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.03
Rasho Nesterovic	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.06	0.02	-0.01	7	86%	0.12	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Sean Marks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	4	75%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.02,-0.08,-0.01,-0.08,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.04	0.08	0.00	16	50%	0.14	3	-0.10	2	100%	0.01
Tony Massenburg	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.02	0.00	1	75%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Dion Glover	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Wilks	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Robert Horry	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	0.00	13	50%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Beno Udrih	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	-0.00	2	67%	0.01	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Nazr Mohammed	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	4	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.06	-0.07	-0.01	10	36%	-0.09	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.17,-0.23,-0.29,-0.21,-0.21,-0.45	-0.45	-0.21	-0.27	-0.03	12	32%	-0.15	7	-0.30	1	0%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.9	2.3	28.6	16.8	25.2	2.3	31.7	130.9
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +82.9%

LAL -7.1%

LAL -12.9%

LAL -9.4%

LAL -3.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	LAL	SAS	NBA	LAL	SAS	NBA
this game	14.4	15.8	15.5	98.9	99.0	104.0
season	15.7	16.3		105.8	105.8
opponent	15.6	15.3		98.4	108.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
LAL	13.9	14.5	14.7	14.5	14.4
SAS	16.7	14.9	15.3	16.1	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tierre Brown	39	40	0.37	-0.87	1.23	0.10	9	-10	19	13.9	14.7	-0.79	15.8	15.7	0.15
Brian Grant	39	41	0.23	-0.73	0.96	0.23	0	-1	1	14.2	14.6	-0.40	16.4	15.3	1.06
Chris Mihm	35	35	0.10	-0.60	0.70	-0.02	4	-5	9	15.1	14.0	1.15	16.1	15.6	0.51
Jumaine Jones	42	42	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	0.03	-6	5	-11	14.7	14.2	0.54	15.8	15.7	0.09
Devean George	50	51	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.48	7	-8	15	14.3	14.5	-0.15	15.7	15.8	-0.03
Slava Medvedenko	19	18	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.13	-5	4	-9	13.8	14.5	-0.75	15.4	15.8	-0.39
Kobe Bryant	78	78	-0.28	-0.21	-0.07	-0.37	3	-4	7	14.3	14.9	-0.67	16.1	14.3	1.76
Caron Butler	90	90	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.49	3	-4	7	14.6	10.6	4.00	15.6	18.5	-2.92
Chucky Atkins	56	56	-0.87	0.37	-1.23	-0.57	-10	9	-19	14.7	13.9	0.79	15.7	15.8	-0.15
Luke Walton	27	29	-0.96	0.46	-1.41	-0.66	-10	9	-19	13.5	14.7	-1.22	14.3	16.4	-2.03

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Manu Ginobili	66	65	0.72	-0.22	0.94	0.60	4	-3	7	14.6	18.3	-3.65	14.5	14.2	0.28
Tony Parker	63	65	0.71	-0.21	0.92	0.50	7	-6	13	15.7	15.9	-0.23	14.6	14.0	0.62
Robert Horry	64	65	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.63	-5	6	-11	15.4	16.5	-1.16	14.0	15.2	-1.14
Sean Marks	23	22	0.36	0.14	0.21	-0.05	14	-13	27	15.9	15.7	0.20	15.4	14.1	1.27
Tony Massenburg	10	9	0.25	0.25	-0.01	0.07	6	-5	11	14.3	15.9	-1.63	16.3	14.2	2.15
Nazr Mohammed	15	14	0.18	0.32	-0.14	-0.08	9	-8	17	16.2	15.7	0.52	13.3	14.6	-1.29
Brent Barry	51	52	0.11	0.39	-0.27	0.11	0	1	-1	17.0	14.3	2.69	14.0	14.8	-0.78
Rasho Nesterovic	68	69	0.04	0.46	-0.41	0.42	-13	14	-27	16.2	14.8	1.38	14.4	14.4	-0.05
Dion Glover	4	4	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.04	-1	2	-3	11.2	16.0	-4.71	13.5	14.4	-0.93
Beno Udrih	21	19	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	-0.00	-3	4	-7	15.7	15.8	-0.06	12.9	14.7	-1.80
Mike Wilks	12	11	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	-0.03	-3	4	-7	16.2	15.7	0.56	15.7	14.2	1.51
Bruce Bowen	83	80	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	0.14	-10	11	-21	16.1	13.4	2.75	14.6	13.3	1.33

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.45,0.42,0.33,0.41,0.4,0.38,0.39,0.35,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.57,0.56,0.53,0.42,0.4,0.39,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.41,0.46,0.58,0.67,0.67,0.58,0.52,0.59,0.6,0.6,0.52,0.46,0.52,0.66,0.72,0.63,0.53,0.34,0.39,0.32,0.46,0.55,0.72,1
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 83, TOR 89	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.43,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.54,0.49,0.46,0.55,0.6,0.63,0.65,0.53,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.45,0.61,0.58,0.64,0.62,0.59,0.53,0.44,0.48,0.4,0.3,0.48,0.62,0.67,0.47,0.59,0.54,0.47,0.38,0.37,0.57,0.73,1	90.8%
POR 81, DAL 84	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.43,0.39,0.37,0.38,0.39,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.5,0.6,0.58,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.56,0.61,0.61,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.62,0.66,0.58,0.55,0.58,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.6,0.48,0.58,0.52,0.71,0.67,0.53,0.41,0.53,0.27,0.25,0.21,0.43,0.73,1	90.6%
ORL 107, HOU 114	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.49,0.53,0.6,0.55,0.51,0.43,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.41,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.41,0.5,0.58,0.58,0.64,0.64,0.7,0.58,0.59,0.55,0.63,0.56,0.48,0.58,0.57,0.43,0.53,0.63,0.58,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.45,0.57,0.85,1	90.5%