NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	117		Excitement	13.0 [12]		MVP	Derek Fisher (GSW): +68.5%
Golden State Warriors	118		Comeback	8.5 [169]		LVP	Jason Richardson (GSW): -40.8%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Redd	0.31	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.15,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.16,0.16,0.03,0.31	0.08	0.24	0.00	26	60%	0.52	3	-0.20	3	67%	-0.02
Zaza Pachulia	0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.07	0.13	-0.00	5	81%	0.20	0	0.00	6	83%	0.10
Anthony Goldwire	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	5	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mo Williams	0.01	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.02	0.00	7	85%	0.30	6	-0.29	6	83%	0.03
Erick Strickland	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joe Smith	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.01	-0.04	0.03	0.00	11	41%	-0.01	0	0.00	5	100%	0.06
Marcus Fizer	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dan Gadzuric	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	0.00	-0.00	5	36%	-0.01	2	-0.04	1	0%	-0.02
Toni Kukoc	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.02	0.00	3	29%	-0.03	2	-0.05	1	0%	-0.03
Desmond Mason	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.02,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.07,0.07,0,-0.09,-0.09	-0.02	-0.08	-0.01	22	60%	0.09	6	-0.17	9	89%	0.07

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Derek Fisher	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.69	0.69	-0.00	0.69	0.00	6	42%	0.69	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Baron Davis	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.26,0.26	0.26	0.05	0.20	-0.01	18	66%	0.39	4	-0.13	8	62%	-0.04
Mike Dunleavy	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.03	0.14	-0.01	9	58%	0.19	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Mickael Pietrus	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.03	0.09	-0.01	11	64%	0.18	2	-0.05	6	83%	0.03
Andris Biedrins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.02	0.05	-0.00	4	60%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Zarko Cabarkapa	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.02	-0.00	5	40%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Adonal Foyle	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.03	-0.01	3	60%	0.00	1	-0.04	4	50%	-0.05
Troy Murphy	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.05,-0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.08	-0.08	-0.04	-0.05	-0.01	14	45%	-0.06	1	-0.02	5	40%	-0.03
Jason Richardson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.22,0.22,0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.26,-0.41	-0.41	-0.03	-0.39	-0.01	22	52%	-0.25	4	-0.16	2	0%	-0.19

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	22.9	1.6	32.3	16.3	26.3	2.4	37.0	2.5	18.3	159.7
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	1.9	17.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +60.8%

MIL -36.5%

MIL -48.5%

GSW +51.7%

GSW +22.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	GSW	NBA	MIL	GSW	NBA
this game	16.7	13.9	15.5	113.6	112.4	104.0
season	16.0	15.0		104.4	102.3
opponent	15.2	15.0		104.7	107.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
MIL	14.8	16.6	18.8	15.9	18.4	16.7
GSW	15.8	11.1	14.6	14.2	14.9	13.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Zaza Pachulia	58	62	0.08	-0.58	0.65	0.05	1	-2	3	17.3	15.9	1.44	13.7	14.3	-0.56
Mo Williams	64	67	0.06	-0.56	0.62	-0.14	7	-8	15	17.2	15.9	1.26	14.3	13.2	1.12
Marcus Fizer	12	12	0.05	-0.55	0.60	0.02	1	-2	3	16.0	16.8	-0.77	13.6	14.0	-0.38
Toni Kukoc	35	37	0.02	-0.52	0.53	0.13	-4	3	-7	16.6	16.7	-0.08	13.6	14.1	-0.47
Dan Gadzuric	43	41	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	-0.06	-1	0	-1	16.6	16.7	-0.17	14.9	13.3	1.57
Joe Smith	68	70	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.39	5	-6	11	16.7	16.6	0.08	13.7	14.3	-0.59
Desmond Mason	97	98	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.49	0	-1	1	16.7	16.5	0.19	13.9	14.3	-0.39
Michael Redd	92	95	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.41	-5	4	-9	16.9	15.1	1.78	13.8	15.4	-1.63
Anthony Goldwire	39	38	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.33	-8	7	-15	15.9	17.2	-1.26	13.2	14.3	-1.12
Erick Strickland	7	5	-0.76	0.26	-1.02	-0.73	-1	0	-1	10.6	17.1	-6.55	18.2	13.7	4.49

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Derek Fisher	32	32	1.05	-0.55	1.61	0.85	7	-6	13	13.8	14.0	-0.16	15.6	17.2	-1.53
Mickael Pietrus	66	63	0.85	-0.35	1.20	0.65	7	-6	13	12.9	15.6	-2.73	16.5	17.0	-0.48
Jason Richardson	75	74	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.43	1	0	1	14.6	12.1	2.51	17.0	15.9	1.14
Baron Davis	93	92	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.52	-3	4	-7	14.2	11.9	2.27	16.6	17.2	-0.56
Troy Murphy	70	69	0.24	0.26	-0.01	0.42	-6	7	-13	13.7	14.3	-0.59	16.7	16.6	0.09
Zarko Cabarkapa	35	33	0.23	0.27	-0.05	0.02	7	-6	13	13.0	14.4	-1.39	17.1	16.5	0.65
Andris Biedrins	19	20	0.04	0.46	-0.41	0.10	-2	3	-5	16.1	13.5	2.60	16.8	16.6	0.21
Adonal Foyle	85	81	-0.32	0.82	-1.14	-0.32	0	1	-1	13.6	15.2	-1.64	17.0	15.4	1.67
Mike Dunleavy	50	51	-0.48	0.98	-1.47	-0.31	-6	7	-13	14.4	13.5	0.95	16.3	17.1	-0.84

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.4,0.41,0.44,0.38,0.43,0.48,0.47,0.42,0.4,0.35,0.3,0.36,0.36,0.35,0.4,0.32,0.37,0.41,0.42,0.41,0.46,0.5,0.45,0.42,0.51,0.52,0.44,0.42,0.48,0.55,0.52,0.6,0.64,0.62,0.7,0.79,0.71,0.73,0.74,0.71,0.61,0.53,0.64,0.66,0.95,0.54,0.53,0.37,0.15,0.73,1
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 95, SAS 101	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.49,0.43,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.32,0.29,0.33,0.37,0.39,0.41,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.46,0.45,0.4,0.51,0.55,0.45,0.52,0.59,0.55,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.66,0.74,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.35,0.33,0.44,0.54,0.84,0.96,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.33,0.73,1	89.1%
CHA 108, BOS 110	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.5,0.46,0.42,0.39,0.41,0.39,0.37,0.32,0.3,0.35,0.38,0.36,0.36,0.42,0.49,0.41,0.44,0.41,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.37,0.34,0.36,0.39,0.45,0.52,0.59,0.65,0.8,0.81,0.79,0.81,0.84,0.75,0.76,0.81,0.83,0.59,0.54,0.69,0.9,0.89,0.96,0.54,0.61,0.29,0.32,0.47,1	88.8%
POR 107, SAC 113	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.48,0.44,0.42,0.41,0.45,0.37,0.37,0.38,0.38,0.43,0.34,0.38,0.38,0.33,0.29,0.24,0.29,0.29,0.39,0.42,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.6,0.52,0.45,0.42,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.34,0.44,0.52,0.5,0.66,0.75,0.71,0.9,0.83,0.91,0.72,0.69,0.72,0.59,0.74,0.46,0.31,0.29,0.68,0.73,1	88.4%