NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	101		Excitement	6.3 [586]		MVP	Peja Stojakovic (SAC): +29.6%
Sacramento Kings	109		Comeback	3.7 [679]		LVP	Jason Terry (DAL): -14.8%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dirk Nowitzki	0.08	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.08	0.06	0.00	-0.02	24	61%	0.18	3	-0.09	9	78%	0.01
Devin Harris	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.10	-0.00	0.05	11	70%	0.05	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Michael Finley	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02	0.00	0.01	-0.00	10	55%	0.07	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Pavel Podkolzin	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keith Van Horn	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.03	-0.05	0.02	13	59%	0.03	2	-0.06	1	100%	0.00
Shawn Bradley	-0.05	0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	8	29%	-0.05	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Josh Howard	-0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	9	40%	-0.02	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.00
Marquis Daniels	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	3	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alan Henderson	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.03	-0.06	0.00	4	50%	-0.05	1	-0.04	4	50%	-0.03
Jason Terry	-0.15	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.11	-0.05	-0.01	10	20%	-0.13	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Peja Stojakovic	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.29,0.29,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3	0.30	0.24	0.07	0.02	13	95%	0.39	3	-0.10	14	100%	0.06
Maurice Evans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.02	0.00	2	100%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brian Skinner	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	4	75%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eddie House	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.00	0.00	3	83%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Bibby	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03	0.03	-0.05	0.04	-0.04	18	42%	0.04	1	-0.01	4	75%	0.01
Kenny Thomas	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.01,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.03	14	47%	0.01	1	-0.00	4	75%	0.00
Corliss Williamson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	-0.00	-0.02	3	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Darius Songaila	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.07	0.02	0.00	5	43%	-0.00	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.02
Cuttino Mobley	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.06	-0.03	0.01	16	47%	-0.02	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.3	2.7	29.2	16.4	25.5	2.4	36.7	136.1
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +43.6%

SAC +4.1%

DAL -0.4%

SAC +1.7%

SAC +1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	SAC	NBA	DAL	SAC	NBA
this game	16.1	14.6	15.5	108.6	114.7	104.0
season	14.9	14.7		108.2	108.1
opponent	15.6	15.5		106.4	103.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	18.2	16.9	16.0	13.6	16.1
SAC	13.1	16.6	14.7	14.1	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shawn Bradley	37	38	0.16	-0.66	0.83	0.08	3	-11	14	17.2	15.3	1.85	14.3	14.8	-0.44
Marquis Daniels	26	25	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.10	4	-12	16	17.1	15.7	1.44	14.4	14.6	-0.24
Pavel Podkolzin	1	1	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.00	0	-8	8	7.0	16.2	-9.17	6.0	14.7	-8.67
Devin Harris	32	33	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	-0.12	-3	-5	2	13.9	17.2	-3.31	13.9	14.9	-1.03
Jason Terry	61	62	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.13	-5	-3	-2	17.2	13.9	3.31	14.9	13.9	1.03
Keith Van Horn	51	51	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.37	2	-10	12	14.9	17.5	-2.51	14.5	14.6	-0.06
Dirk Nowitzki	84	85	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.27	-4	-4	0	15.9	17.3	-1.39	15.1	10.4	4.67
Josh Howard	60	63	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.12	-9	1	-10	15.6	16.9	-1.29	14.6	14.6	-0.02
Alan Henderson	42	43	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.18	-9	1	-10	17.1	15.2	1.90	14.6	14.6	0.00
Michael Finley	71	74	-0.68	0.18	-0.85	-0.12	-19	11	-30	16.0	16.4	-0.38	14.4	15.4	-1.03

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mike Bibby	84	83	0.60	-0.10	0.69	0.25	12	-4	16	14.4	15.9	-1.50	15.7	19.1	-3.39
Peja Stojakovic	85	81	0.58	-0.08	0.67	0.23	12	-4	16	14.0	19.3	-5.28	16.1	15.9	0.18
Darius Songaila	53	52	0.48	0.02	0.45	0.36	4	4	0	14.8	14.3	0.44	14.7	17.9	-3.18
Kenny Thomas	68	68	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.18	7	1	6	14.3	15.2	-0.90	16.2	15.8	0.43
Cuttino Mobley	77	74	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.03	12	-4	16	14.3	15.7	-1.34	16.1	15.8	0.29
Brian Skinner	60	59	0.28	0.22	0.06	-0.04	11	-3	14	14.7	14.4	0.28	17.3	14.0	3.32
Maurice Evans	24	26	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.25	-2	10	-12	16.5	13.9	2.57	15.8	16.2	-0.32
Eddie House	11	10	-0.12	0.62	-0.73	0.00	-4	12	-16	15.9	14.4	1.50	19.1	15.7	3.39
Corliss Williamson	13	12	-0.28	0.78	-1.06	0.07	-12	20	-32	16.2	14.3	1.91	15.5	16.2	-0.66

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.5,0.49,0.53,0.59,0.69,0.68,0.71,0.7,0.74,0.62,0.58,0.53,0.46,0.39,0.41,0.44,0.39,0.33,0.41,0.3,0.37,0.31,0.33,0.42,0.45,0.26,0.41,0.21,0.3,0.37,0.4,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.66,0.81,0.83,0.88,0.97,0.95,0.97,0.99,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 109, HOU 115	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.48,0.52,0.56,0.59,0.61,0.55,0.63,0.66,0.68,0.72,0.64,0.64,0.58,0.47,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.34,0.33,0.3,0.25,0.26,0.14,0.22,0.24,0.36,0.39,0.38,0.28,0.27,0.22,0.36,0.42,0.38,0.57,0.71,0.85,0.92,0.89,0.95,0.98,0.97,0.94,0.96,1	93.0%
PHI 81, ORL 92	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.45,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.6,0.56,0.52,0.49,0.55,0.56,0.51,0.4,0.39,0.36,0.41,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.46,0.38,0.37,0.36,0.39,0.42,0.32,0.29,0.25,0.27,0.26,0.28,0.38,0.48,0.53,0.67,0.81,0.79,0.8,0.82,0.93,0.97,0.96,1,1	92.4%
PHX 107, CHI 112	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.53,0.61,0.64,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.63,0.58,0.58,0.64,0.61,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.56,0.51,0.49,0.41,0.42,0.42,0.37,0.42,0.36,0.45,0.38,0.41,0.41,0.34,0.26,0.36,0.42,0.43,0.53,0.66,0.77,0.82,0.88,0.93,0.93,0.99,0.93,0.95,1	92.3%