NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Los Angeles Clippers	109		Excitement	6.9 [437]		MVP	Trevor Ariza (HOU): +14.4%
Houston Rockets	115		Comeback	6.3 [406]		LVP	Josh Smith (HOU): -8.7%

Los Angeles Clippers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
DeAndre Jordan	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.12	0.03	0.01	6	89%	0.17	1	-0.03	6	67%	-0.00
Blake Griffin	0.02	0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.24,0.24,0.22,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.19,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.02,0.02	0.10	-0.06	0.02	23	60%	0.12	3	-0.10	11	73%	-0.01
Austin Rivers	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0	0.00	0.02	0.02	9	50%	0.04	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Jamal Crawford	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.06,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.07,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0	-0.05	0.02	-0.02	22	37%	0.00	0	0.00	7	86%	0.01
Lester Hudson	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	-0.00	3	83%	0.04	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Dahntay Jones	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ekpe Udoh	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Glen Davis	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.02	4	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0.00	2	75%	0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
JJ Redick	-0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.03	-0.01	10	50%	0.06	2	-0.09	4	100%	0.02
Matt Barnes	-0.08	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08	-0.04	-0.04	0.01	7	37%	-0.05	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Trevor Ariza	0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,0.03,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.02	0.10	-0.03	12	48%	0.16	1	-0.01	7	86%	0.01
James Harden	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.06,-0.1,-0.13,-0.08,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.03	0.10	0.03	17	65%	0.29	7	-0.19	15	100%	0.09
Dwight Howard	0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.1	0.10	0.06	0.04	-0.00	11	56%	0.12	1	-0.02	21	38%	-0.13
Jason Terry	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.00	6	59%	0.06	1	-0.03	5	80%	0.01
Clint Capela	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Corey Brewer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01	-0.01	-0.05	0.02	-0.02	11	39%	0.01	1	-0.02	6	50%	-0.03
Pablo Prigioni	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	-0.01	4	50%	0.03	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Terrence Jones	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.01	-0.01	10	45%	0.03	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Josh Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.05	-0.03	-0.00	9	33%	-0.09	0	0.00	6	33%	-0.07

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	33.3	2.8	29.3	17.5	38.6	3.4	52.3	177.3
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +11.0%

HOU +10.4%

HOU +20.5%

HOU +4.3%

HOU +3.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	LAC	HOU	NBA	LAC	HOU	NBA
this game	13.7	13.2	15.1	101.9	107.5	104.2
season	14.6	14.3		110.5	105.6
opponent	14.9	15.3		103.1	104.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
LAC	12.7	14.4	16.2	11.7	13.7
HOU	13.0	14.4	10.8	14.4	13.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Los Angeles Clippers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Lester Hudson	26	25	0.22	-0.72	0.93	-0.05	9	-15	24	13.6	13.8	-0.21	11.1	13.8	-2.68
Ekpe Udoh	0	1	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.03	-1	-5	4	0.0	13.7	-13.74	2.0	13.3	-11.28
Dahntay Jones	1	2	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	0.02	-2	-4	2	4.0	13.8	-9.83	11.0	13.2	-2.22
Hedo Turkoglu	20	17	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.01	-2	-4	2	11.3	14.3	-3.00	12.6	13.3	-0.63
Glen Davis	35	33	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	0.13	-8	2	-10	14.2	13.5	0.73	11.0	14.2	-3.19
DeAndre Jordan	51	52	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.24	3	-9	12	14.4	13.1	1.32	15.0	11.4	3.62
Austin Rivers	53	54	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	-0.14	-3	-3	0	13.4	14.1	-0.68	15.1	11.2	3.83
Jamal Crawford	84	84	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.43	0	-6	6	13.4	15.1	-1.72	12.6	15.4	-2.88
JJ Redick	103	102	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.34	-3	-3	0	13.9	9.7	4.14	13.1	14.4	-1.28
Blake Griffin	91	92	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.34	-7	1	-8	14.0	12.0	2.04	12.8	15.4	-2.58
Matt Barnes	71	73	-0.72	0.22	-0.94	-0.25	-16	10	-26	14.0	13.3	0.65	13.7	12.0	1.77

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
James Harden	79	80	0.68	-0.18	0.85	0.26	14	-8	22	13.6	12.1	1.45	12.9	16.1	-3.22
Corey Brewer	69	68	0.66	-0.16	0.83	0.34	11	-5	16	12.6	14.3	-1.72	13.6	14.0	-0.41
Pablo Prigioni	46	46	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.38	1	5	-4	13.8	12.7	1.14	12.2	14.9	-2.71
Trevor Ariza	99	99	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.43	-2	8	-10	13.3	11.6	1.68	13.9	11.9	2.01
Dwight Howard	77	78	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.30	-1	7	-8	13.4	12.5	0.90	14.1	12.9	1.15
Terrence Jones	57	57	0.17	0.33	-0.17	-0.01	6	0	6	13.0	13.3	-0.30	15.1	12.2	2.81
Jason Terry	60	61	0.09	0.41	-0.32	-0.06	5	1	4	12.9	13.6	-0.71	14.9	12.2	2.71
Clint Capela	8	7	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	-0.01	-1	7	-8	15.7	13.0	2.78	12.0	13.9	-1.86
Josh Smith	40	39	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	-0.01	-3	9	-12	12.1	13.8	-1.72	13.1	14.1	-1.08

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.48,0.52,0.56,0.59,0.61,0.55,0.63,0.66,0.68,0.72,0.64,0.64,0.58,0.47,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.34,0.33,0.3,0.25,0.26,0.14,0.22,0.24,0.36,0.39,0.38,0.28,0.27,0.22,0.36,0.42,0.38,0.57,0.71,0.85,0.92,0.89,0.95,0.98,0.97,0.94,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 101, SAC 109	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.5,0.49,0.53,0.59,0.69,0.68,0.71,0.7,0.74,0.62,0.58,0.53,0.46,0.39,0.41,0.44,0.39,0.33,0.41,0.3,0.37,0.31,0.33,0.42,0.45,0.26,0.41,0.21,0.3,0.37,0.4,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.66,0.81,0.83,0.88,0.97,0.95,0.97,0.99,0.98,1	93.0%
DAL 95, SAC 102	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.59,0.61,0.58,0.62,0.55,0.55,0.65,0.62,0.6,0.54,0.56,0.53,0.58,0.53,0.54,0.51,0.44,0.49,0.44,0.39,0.36,0.33,0.26,0.16,0.2,0.19,0.24,0.32,0.28,0.34,0.34,0.37,0.44,0.46,0.43,0.52,0.67,0.77,0.69,0.76,0.87,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.97,1	92.2%
BOS 96, MIL 105	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.56,0.63,0.6,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.44,0.39,0.3,0.31,0.25,0.2,0.3,0.33,0.26,0.29,0.31,0.3,0.33,0.32,0.46,0.48,0.66,0.89,0.94,0.92,0.95,0.97,0.9,0.97,1,1,1	92.1%