NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	82		Excitement	6.5 [549]		MVP	Damon Jones (MIA): +6.1%
Houston Rockets	84		Comeback	3.4 [705]		LVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): -38.0%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Damon Jones	0.06	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06	0.08	0.01	0.04	11	70%	0.10	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.02
Eddie Jones	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.01	6	64%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Alonzo Mourning	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	3	33%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rasual Butler	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	1	50%	-0.01	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Michael Doleac	-0.08	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.04	-0.03	0.01	5	60%	0.03	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Shandon Anderson	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	4	25%	-0.04	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Shaquille O'Neal	-0.13	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13	-0.07	-0.03	0.02	15	57%	-0.01	5	-0.12	10	50%	-0.07
Keyon Dooling	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.10	-0.05	0.00	6	17%	-0.09	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	-0.38	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.13,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.25,-0.27,-0.26,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.27,-0.3,-0.32,-0.32,-0.38	-0.28	-0.15	-0.05	19	36%	-0.28	4	-0.10	18	67%	-0.06

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Clar. Weatherspoon	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.02	0.01	6	75%	0.09	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.03
David Wesley	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03	0.03	-0.04	0.05	-0.01	12	47%	0.06	1	-0.03	6	83%	0.05
Dikembe Mutombo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	67%	0.02	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.02
Yao Ming	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	11	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Ryan Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Scott Padgett	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jon Barry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.02	-0.00	6	33%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mike James	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	0.01	0.00	8	40%	-0.03	1	-0.03	4	0%	-0.05
Bob Sura	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.10	-0.03	-0.01	4	0%	-0.07	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Tracy McGrady	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.03,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.16,-0.18,-0.14,-0.09,-0.11,-0.13,-0.14,-0.15	-0.15	-0.15	-0.02	-0.02	27	41%	-0.07	3	-0.08	10	80%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.3	3.6	32.3	20.3	31.5	2.4	45.0	163.4
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +14.5%

HOU +10.1%

HOU +7.0%

HOU +23.3%

MIA -4.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	HOU	NBA	MIA	HOU	NBA
this game	15.7	16.5	15.5	93.2	92.3	104.0
season	15.7	16.0		107.9	104.2
opponent	15.8	15.5		100.6	101.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.7	15.9	17.4	14.0	15.7
HOU	14.4	19.9	16.9	15.4	16.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rasual Butler	29	31	0.18	-0.68	0.86	-0.35	18	-20	38	14.2	16.4	-2.23	17.6	15.9	1.75
Shandon Anderson	42	42	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	-0.20	6	-8	14	14.5	16.8	-2.33	17.7	15.4	2.31
Keyon Dooling	22	23	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.18	5	-7	12	16.3	15.5	0.80	19.0	15.7	3.29
Alonzo Mourning	12	11	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	-0.04	-1	-1	0	15.8	15.6	0.19	23.2	15.6	7.61
Shaquille O'Neal	74	79	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.40	-1	-1	0	15.6	15.9	-0.22	15.7	22.0	-6.34
Dwyane Wade	77	79	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.32	-4	2	-6	15.4	17.5	-2.14	16.7	15.0	1.72
Michael Doleac	47	48	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.03	-17	15	-32	17.1	14.1	2.99	15.1	18.0	-2.94
Eddie Jones	71	73	-0.53	0.03	-0.57	-0.42	-4	2	-6	16.0	14.2	1.85	15.9	18.8	-2.92
Damon Jones	66	69	-0.61	0.11	-0.73	-0.26	-12	10	-22	15.8	15.1	0.71	15.6	19.3	-3.66

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tracy McGrady	84	83	0.67	-0.17	0.85	0.38	10	-8	18	16.2	19.4	-3.18	15.6	17.0	-1.41
Dikembe Mutombo	48	50	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.41	5	-3	8	16.5	16.4	0.10	14.6	17.1	-2.43
Bob Sura	60	58	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.14	11	-9	20	14.5	20.3	-5.81	15.6	15.8	-0.20
Clar. Weatherspoon	40	37	0.44	0.06	0.39	-0.06	17	-15	32	15.8	17.0	-1.19	17.9	14.1	3.83
David Wesley	71	67	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.30	3	-1	4	15.2	21.2	-6.10	15.2	17.1	-1.87
Jon Barry	30	30	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.32	-8	10	-18	18.9	15.3	3.54	15.3	15.9	-0.61
Ryan Bowen	25	25	0.08	0.42	-0.35	0.25	-6	8	-14	17.0	16.3	0.75	15.2	15.9	-0.66
Yao Ming	47	43	0.05	0.45	-0.41	0.05	0	2	-2	15.7	17.3	-1.64	17.1	14.3	2.74
Mike James	35	33	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.31	-13	15	-28	19.8	14.4	5.42	16.0	15.5	0.48
Scott Padgett	15	14	-0.17	0.67	-0.84	0.10	-9	11	-20	22.8	15.2	7.55	13.1	16.1	-3.01

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.56,0.6,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.54,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.34,0.33,0.27,0.33,0.37,0.4,0.45,0.46,0.48,0.55,0.45,0.38,0.34,0.41,0.44,0.6,0.74,0.82,0.82,0.89,0.81,0.83,0.94,0.97,0.94,0.96,0.99,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 89, LAC 92	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.5,0.47,0.58,0.55,0.53,0.54,0.46,0.39,0.31,0.3,0.39,0.49,0.5,0.48,0.55,0.49,0.39,0.39,0.42,0.38,0.31,0.34,0.4,0.52,0.66,0.74,0.79,0.83,0.81,0.79,0.85,0.95,0.98,0.98,0.94,0.98,1	93.2%
SEA 100, UTA 109	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.5,0.44,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.65,0.64,0.6,0.6,0.64,0.56,0.58,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.48,0.44,0.39,0.33,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.45,0.42,0.52,0.45,0.41,0.35,0.41,0.4,0.4,0.58,0.7,0.82,0.72,0.73,0.82,0.91,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1	93.2%
LAL 82, MEM 88	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.53,0.59,0.54,0.52,0.55,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.44,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.44,0.43,0.41,0.44,0.39,0.28,0.33,0.42,0.42,0.53,0.55,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.44,0.56,0.6,0.78,0.9,0.85,0.93,0.88,0.9,0.97,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1	92.9%