NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	85		Excitement	6.8 [483]		MVP	Erick Strickland (MIL): +12.9%
Chicago Bulls	90		Comeback	1.8 [908]		LVP	Joe Smith (MIL): -22.9%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Erick Strickland	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.08	0.05	0.00	8	72%	0.13	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Dan Gadzuric	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.02	0.00	4	67%	0.05	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Toni Kukoc	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0,0	0.04	-0.04	0.00	5	67%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Calvin Booth	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Redd	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.02	0.01	-0.01	0.02	20	57%	0.12	3	-0.14	6	100%	0.06
Desmond Mason	-0.03	0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	0.01	9	65%	0.05	3	-0.09	2	50%	-0.02
Zaza Pachulia	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	0.01	4	50%	-0.02	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Mo Williams	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.11	-0.06	-0.01	9	28%	-0.07	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Fizer	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.13	-0.04	-0.00	5	0%	-0.13	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.03
Joe Smith	-0.23	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.19,-0.21,-0.21,-0.18,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23	-0.14	-0.09	-0.01	8	37%	-0.15	3	-0.08	8	62%	-0.03

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eric Piatkowski	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	0.00	0.00	2	125%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Duhon	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06	0.06	0.07	0.01	0.02	8	72%	0.08	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Othella Harrington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.00	4	67%	0.04	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Kirk Hinrich	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.13,-0.1,-0.05,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,0.02	0.02	-0.06	0.07	-0.00	16	46%	0.09	2	-0.08	5	80%	0.01
Tyson Chandler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	2	17%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.03
Andres Nocioni	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.08	-0.08	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	7	72%	0.05	5	-0.13	4	50%	-0.09
Eddy Curry	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.09	-0.02	-0.02	11	62%	0.13	7	-0.22	4	100%	0.03
Ben Gordon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.11	-0.02	-0.02	16	32%	-0.07	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Antonio Davis	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.07	-0.03	0.00	7	43%	-0.01	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.4	2.7	29.0	15.5	29.5	2.4	31.5	132.0
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +32.5%

CHI +5.4%

CHI +24.0%

MIL -9.9%

MIL -2.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	CHI	NBA	MIL	CHI	NBA
this game	15.6	15.5	15.5	90.4	98.9	104.0
season	16.0	15.1		104.4	100.1
opponent	15.4	15.0		98.9	107.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	16.3	15.9	16.2	14.2	15.6
CHI	18.0	13.5	13.7	17.1	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dan Gadzuric	26	26	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.15	7	-12	19	15.6	15.6	-0.03	16.5	15.1	1.35
Calvin Booth	8	7	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	-0.07	-3	-2	-1	16.5	15.6	0.94	11.9	15.8	-3.94
Marcus Fizer	25	24	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	0.02	-7	2	-9	15.9	15.6	0.33	13.5	16.2	-2.77
Erick Strickland	32	33	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.14	-3	-2	-1	16.4	15.2	1.16	14.8	15.9	-1.01
Toni Kukoc	41	42	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.19	-2	-3	1	16.1	15.3	0.81	15.9	15.2	0.67
Mo Williams	62	58	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.22	-2	-3	1	15.2	16.4	-1.16	15.9	14.8	1.01
Desmond Mason	63	60	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.17	-4	-1	-3	15.5	16.0	-0.54	15.1	16.2	-1.06
Joe Smith	75	72	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.37	3	-8	11	15.1	17.8	-2.76	15.8	14.3	1.49
Michael Redd	88	85	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.41	0	-5	5	15.4	19.7	-4.30	15.9	9.8	6.06
Zaza Pachulia	50	48	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.08	-14	9	-23	16.6	14.6	1.97	15.5	15.5	-0.03

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ben Gordon	45	48	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.27	11	-6	17	15.4	15.6	-0.19	16.1	15.2	0.91
Othella Harrington	36	35	0.44	0.06	0.37	0.14	10	-5	15	14.6	16.1	-1.55	18.3	14.1	4.17
Eddy Curry	68	73	0.39	0.11	0.29	0.28	4	1	3	15.5	15.6	-0.15	14.7	18.9	-4.21
Chris Duhon	74	74	0.31	0.19	0.11	0.22	3	2	1	15.4	16.0	-0.62	15.8	14.9	0.87
Tyson Chandler	43	44	0.30	0.20	0.09	0.24	2	3	-1	16.6	14.5	2.15	16.6	14.8	1.83
Andres Nocioni	59	61	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.29	-1	6	-7	16.3	14.0	2.26	14.6	17.6	-3.08
Kirk Hinrich	78	81	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.34	-4	9	-13	15.6	15.0	0.58	15.4	17.1	-1.67
Eric Piatkowski	17	18	0.12	0.38	-0.25	-0.05	6	-1	7	13.1	16.0	-2.92	18.4	15.0	3.40
Antonio Davis	35	36	-0.13	0.63	-0.75	0.05	-6	11	-17	15.1	15.7	-0.57	13.8	16.8	-2.97

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.41,0.36,0.39,0.45,0.42,0.47,0.48,0.44,0.49,0.58,0.53,0.6,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.64,0.7,0.64,0.67,0.69,0.74,0.61,0.55,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.59,0.66,0.74,0.82,0.81,0.81,0.85,0.86,0.81,0.83,0.85,0.78,0.81,0.93,0.84,0.85,1
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 91, LAC 93	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.45,0.44,0.42,0.43,0.43,0.47,0.43,0.4,0.42,0.5,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.49,0.56,0.59,0.61,0.67,0.67,0.61,0.67,0.65,0.66,0.61,0.61,0.52,0.48,0.55,0.52,0.63,0.67,0.68,0.66,0.84,0.88,0.89,0.91,0.87,0.91,0.82,0.86,0.79,0.85,0.71,1	93.7%
PHI 90, IND 99	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.4,0.41,0.34,0.39,0.43,0.4,0.38,0.42,0.4,0.43,0.42,0.49,0.48,0.56,0.58,0.53,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.61,0.73,0.69,0.66,0.67,0.63,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.59,0.6,0.82,0.81,0.74,0.82,0.8,0.87,0.86,0.8,0.82,0.89,0.89,0.84,1,1	93.1%
CLE 108, ATL 111	0.5,0.49,0.44,0.43,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.39,0.35,0.35,0.32,0.29,0.43,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.56,0.58,0.64,0.66,0.75,0.76,0.67,0.67,0.63,0.6,0.61,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.62,0.65,0.66,0.81,0.85,0.87,0.84,0.88,0.9,0.88,0.79,0.81,0.73,0.85,0.9,0.85,0.63,1	92.9%