NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Orleans Hornets	86		Excitement	7.3 [402]		MVP	Dirk Nowitzki (DAL): +15.4%
Dallas Mavericks	90		Comeback	2.0 [857]		LVP	Marquis Daniels (DAL): -25.5%

New Orleans Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
George Lynch	0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.01	-0.00	4	62%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Andersen	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.02	0.05	-0.02	5	80%	0.12	4	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Bostjan Nachbar	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	100%	0.05	1	-0.03	1	0%	-0.02
P.J. Brown	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	0.01	7	67%	0.10	4	-0.14	4	100%	0.03
Casey Jacobsen	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	8	50%	0.00	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.03
Lee Nailon	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.09,-0.09	0.00	-0.09	-0.00	13	54%	0.01	2	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Jackson Vroman	-0.11	0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.08	-0.02	0.00	6	50%	0.00	4	-0.11	2	50%	-0.01
Speedy Claxton	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.11	-0.05	-0.00	4	37%	-0.08	2	-0.08	8	50%	-0.03
J.R. Smith	-0.17	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.18,-0.13,-0.17	-0.02	-0.13	0.02	8	50%	-0.14	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.04
Dan Dickau	-0.20	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.18,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.2	-0.12	-0.10	-0.01	13	36%	-0.07	3	-0.13	2	50%	-0.04

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.15	0.15	-0.01	0.16	-0.00	19	61%	0.31	5	-0.16	8	100%	0.07
Darrell Armstrong	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	0	100%	0.05	2	-0.03	6	100%	0.05
Devin Harris	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keith Van Horn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0.00	8	45%	-0.02	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Jason Terry	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	0.02	10	55%	0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Bradley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	2	83%	0.04	2	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
Michael Finley	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	12	41%	-0.04	0	0.00	3	0%	-0.07
Josh Howard	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	8	39%	-0.04	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Marquis Daniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.19,-0.19,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.25,-0.25	-0.25	-0.10	-0.15	0.00	8	52%	-0.06	4	-0.19	9	78%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.5	2.4	28.4	17.4	25.6	2.5	37.3	139.1
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +2.3%

DAL +22.8%

NOH -5.7%

DAL +24.6%

DAL +6.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NOH	DAL	NBA	NOH	DAL	NBA
this game	15.9	14.7	15.5	91.5	95.7	104.0
season	16.5	14.9		97.7	108.2
opponent	15.5	15.7		103.4	105.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NOH	15.8	16.3	16.1	15.4	15.9
DAL	12.5	14.3	15.2	17.3	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Orleans Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
George Lynch	34	36	0.17	-0.67	0.84	-0.09	9	-13	22	15.9	15.9	-0.05	15.3	14.3	0.99
J.R. Smith	39	41	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	-0.24	3	-7	10	15.8	16.0	-0.25	14.9	14.6	0.27
Chris Andersen	48	47	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.04	-6	2	-8	16.6	15.2	1.37	14.3	15.2	-0.89
Speedy Claxton	32	31	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.02	-7	3	-10	16.2	15.7	0.51	15.1	14.6	0.51
Jackson Vroman	44	47	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.26	0	-4	4	16.1	15.8	0.29	16.6	12.9	3.66
Bostjan Nachbar	21	19	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	0.00	-9	5	-14	16.0	15.9	0.11	13.2	15.1	-1.90
Dan Dickau	62	63	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.36	3	-7	10	15.7	16.2	-0.51	14.6	15.1	-0.51
Casey Jacobsen	55	53	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.14	-7	3	-10	16.0	15.8	0.25	14.6	14.9	-0.27
P.J. Brown	82	81	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.42	2	-6	8	15.7	17.5	-1.82	14.3	17.2	-2.82
Lee Nailon	53	52	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.33	-8	4	-12	15.5	16.4	-0.89	14.2	15.4	-1.15

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dirk Nowitzki	74	73	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.39	2	2	0	14.4	16.0	-1.69	16.2	14.8	1.42
Josh Howard	65	65	0.44	0.06	0.39	0.42	1	3	-2	14.2	16.0	-1.80	16.0	15.8	0.13
Marquis Daniels	76	76	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.41	-1	5	-6	14.1	17.2	-3.09	15.9	16.1	-0.24
Darrell Armstrong	49	49	0.37	0.13	0.23	-0.01	13	-9	22	13.4	16.2	-2.75	15.9	16.0	-0.12
Michael Finley	67	67	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.36	0	4	-4	15.6	12.5	3.09	15.9	16.1	-0.22
Jason Terry	53	53	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.39	-3	7	-10	15.8	13.4	2.36	15.9	15.9	0.02
Keith Van Horn	44	45	0.21	0.29	-0.08	-0.03	8	-4	12	15.4	14.1	1.33	16.6	15.3	1.27
Shawn Bradley	42	41	0.01	0.49	-0.48	-0.02	1	3	-2	15.4	14.2	1.15	15.0	16.6	-1.67
Devin Harris	0	1	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	0.01	-1	5	-6	0.0	14.7	-14.72	9.0	16.0	-6.99

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.41,0.37,0.35,0.39,0.38,0.43,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.58,0.58,0.64,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.66,0.67,0.75,0.74,0.66,0.61,0.67,0.64,0.62,0.58,0.62,0.63,0.63,0.79,0.66,0.7,0.62,0.62,0.72,0.59,0.54,0.73,0.81,0.79,0.84,0.85,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 104, HOU 107	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.5,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.48,0.53,0.58,0.6,0.71,0.71,0.74,0.61,0.61,0.56,0.64,0.64,0.7,0.71,0.63,0.67,0.73,0.7,0.8,0.71,0.69,0.59,0.6,0.75,0.66,0.62,0.66,0.8,0.77,0.59,0.53,0.67,0.69,0.78,0.84,0.96,1	92.8%
IND 87, MIA 94	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.41,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.35,0.42,0.51,0.58,0.53,0.56,0.59,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.58,0.54,0.69,0.67,0.61,0.67,0.71,0.75,0.66,0.63,0.6,0.68,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.67,0.73,0.59,0.53,0.67,0.86,0.93,0.96,1,1	92.6%
MIL 107, DAL 108	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.56,0.52,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.62,0.67,0.59,0.64,0.64,0.61,0.59,0.66,0.64,0.65,0.59,0.64,0.64,0.61,0.65,0.68,0.59,0.59,0.71,0.78,0.74,0.78,0.62,0.57,0.68,0.64,0.54,0.78,0.75,0.72,0.97,0.96,1	92.6%