NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Washington Wizards	96		Excitement	8.7 [179]		MVP	Bostjan Nachbar (NOH): +17.7%
New Orleans Hornets	98		Comeback	1.8 [833]		LVP	Dan Dickau (NOH): -27.2%

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gilbert Arenas	0.02	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.13,0.1,0.14,0.11,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02	-0.01	0.05	0.02	29	51%	0.11	2	-0.09	9	89%	0.05
Brendan Haywood	-0.02	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.05	-0.05	0.01	3	100%	0.06	1	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Michael Ruffin	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Steve Blake	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Etan Thomas	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jarvis Hayes	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.00	-0.04	-0.00	6	57%	0.00	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Antawn Jamison	-0.04	0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.08,0.07,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.04	0.03	-0.05	0.02	22	55%	-0.02	1	-0.02	11	82%	-0.03
Laron Profit	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	4	25%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Juan Dixon	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09	-0.08	-0.02	-0.00	10	40%	-0.03	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Jared Jeffries	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.07	-0.04	0.00	5	40%	-0.02	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00

New Orleans Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bostjan Nachbar	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.08	0.09	-0.00	9	75%	0.20	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Chris Andersen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.08	0.03	0.00	10	73%	0.14	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
P.J. Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.00	0.05	-0.02	11	57%	0.10	2	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Casey Jacobsen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.01	0.06	-0.00	8	47%	0.07	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Rodney Rogers	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	13	46%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
George Lynch	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.02	0.00	5	60%	0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
J.R. Smith	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.02	0.02	12	56%	0.03	2	-0.05	8	37%	-0.09
Dan Dickau	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.21,-0.27	-0.27	-0.13	-0.14	0.00	14	30%	-0.25	1	-0.03	5	60%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.9	1.8	29.6	15.8	29.4	3.4	38.3	142.2
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NOH +32.6%

NOH +3.2%

WAS -13.9%

NOH +18.6%

NOH +9.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	WAS	NOH	NBA	WAS	NOH	NBA
this game	14.8	18.1	15.5	109.1	112.6	104.0
season	14.7	16.5		104.7	97.7
opponent	15.7	15.5		105.2	105.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
WAS	15.1	14.0	14.3	16.1	14.8
NOH	17.6	17.3	17.8	19.9	18.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Etan Thomas	36	34	0.04	-0.54	0.57	-0.11	5	-7	12	14.0	15.4	-1.37	15.4	19.9	-4.46
Jared Jeffries	64	63	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.44	13	-15	28	14.9	14.5	0.48	18.9	16.2	2.65
Antawn Jamison	78	78	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.25	5	-7	12	15.1	12.6	2.49	18.7	13.0	5.72
Jarvis Hayes	46	47	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.40	10	-12	22	13.3	16.4	-3.10	18.7	17.4	1.30
Juan Dixon	29	28	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.08	-4	2	-6	16.4	14.0	2.40	17.9	18.2	-0.29
Steve Blake	13	12	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.06	-8	6	-14	16.5	14.5	1.94	16.2	18.4	-2.18
Laron Profit	20	20	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.01	-13	11	-24	12.9	15.4	-2.47	15.0	19.1	-4.06
Michael Ruffin	19	19	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.18	-8	6	-14	15.2	14.7	0.51	17.0	18.4	-1.44
Brendan Haywood	47	47	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.22	-8	6	-14	15.4	14.1	1.33	19.9	16.0	3.89
Gilbert Arenas	88	87	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.44	-2	0	-2	14.8	0.0	14.81	18.1	0.0	18.13

New Orleans Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bostjan Nachbar	42	44	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.47	4	-2	6	18.5	17.8	0.72	15.5	14.1	1.48
Rodney Rogers	51	54	0.52	-0.01	0.53	0.40	4	-2	6	17.5	19.1	-1.63	14.6	15.2	-0.65
J.R. Smith	65	66	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.43	-2	4	-6	19.1	15.4	3.70	14.8	14.8	-0.02
Dan Dickau	66	68	0.34	0.16	0.19	0.37	-1	3	-4	18.2	17.8	0.42	15.0	14.0	1.04
Chris Andersen	49	48	0.31	0.19	0.11	0.07	8	-6	14	18.2	18.0	0.22	15.2	14.3	0.88
Casey Jacobsen	43	42	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.08	7	-5	12	16.6	19.7	-3.10	14.4	15.2	-0.72
P.J. Brown	74	74	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.41	-8	10	-18	18.5	15.8	2.68	14.7	15.2	-0.48
George Lynch	45	44	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	-0.03	-2	4	-6	17.8	18.5	-0.72	14.1	15.5	-1.48

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.57,0.5,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.64,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.67,0.67,0.78,0.79,0.78,0.77,0.72,0.67,0.54,0.55,0.48,0.42,0.36,0.39,0.52,0.62,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.6,0.7,0.66,0.82,0.76,0.68,0.79,0.8,0.72,0.75,0.89,0.91,0.93,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 105, GSW 108	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.5,0.47,0.46,0.49,0.39,0.45,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.5,0.53,0.53,0.64,0.65,0.65,0.68,0.66,0.74,0.69,0.54,0.64,0.58,0.54,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.59,0.56,0.59,0.63,0.75,0.74,0.78,0.67,0.71,0.68,0.7,0.85,0.6,0.81,0.86,0.94,0.95,1	92.3%
BOS 77, CLE 88	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.53,0.54,0.51,0.45,0.49,0.53,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.54,0.53,0.56,0.62,0.6,0.63,0.66,0.65,0.69,0.61,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.45,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.62,0.57,0.66,0.62,0.65,0.79,0.71,0.71,0.75,0.89,0.99,1,1	91.6%
HOU 98, GSW 99	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.57,0.57,0.55,0.6,0.55,0.62,0.66,0.68,0.76,0.82,0.81,0.83,0.78,0.75,0.69,0.69,0.66,0.61,0.5,0.52,0.4,0.42,0.33,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.63,0.67,0.56,0.58,0.66,0.67,0.8,0.77,0.79,0.76,0.72,0.86,0.93,0.97,0.97,1	91.6%