NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Orleans Hornets	94		Excitement	7.7 [318]		MVP	Dan Dickau (NOH): +26.6%
Orlando Magic	97		Comeback	2.3 [825]		LVP	Rodney Rogers (NOH): -29.1%

New Orleans Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dan Dickau	0.27	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.27,0.27,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.27	0.17	0.10	0.01	16	82%	0.40	3	-0.14	2	50%	-0.01
Bostjan Nachbar	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.02,0.02	-0.02	0.04	-0.01	6	42%	0.06	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Casey Jacobsen	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.01	0.03	-0.04	-0.01	8	71%	0.07	2	-0.07	1	100%	0.01
P.J. Brown	0.01	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.01	6	59%	0.01	0	0.00	5	80%	-0.00
Jackson Vroman	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	3	37%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
George Lynch	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	0.01	2	50%	-0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Chris Andersen	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05	-0.01	-0.04	0.00	2	67%	-0.01	1	-0.04	5	80%	-0.02
J.R. Smith	-0.22	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.22	-0.05	-0.16	0.01	16	54%	-0.05	4	-0.16	5	40%	-0.08
Maciej Lampe	-0.23	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.18,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23	-0.10	-0.14	0.00	7	14%	-0.20	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Rodney Rogers	-0.29	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.12,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.21,-0.26,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29	-0.23	-0.09	-0.03	14	19%	-0.22	3	-0.07	4	50%	-0.02

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Pat Garrity	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.10	0.01	0.00	6	86%	0.11	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Tony Battie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kelvin Cato	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	1	75%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
DeShawn Stevenson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	-0.01	-0.01	6	46%	-0.00	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Dwight Howard	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	-0.00	7	58%	0.02	1	-0.04	5	60%	-0.02
Jameer Nelson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.08,-0.05,0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.01	0.01	18	52%	0.05	3	-0.08	6	83%	0.03
Grant Hill	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	11	46%	0.01	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Steve Francis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.19,-0.23,-0.27,-0.27,-0.19,-0.19,-0.18,-0.09,-0.07	-0.07	-0.10	0.03	0.00	15	54%	0.08	5	-0.15	11	91%	0.08
Doug Christie	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.07	-0.04	-0.02	7	57%	0.06	5	-0.16	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.7	2.8	28.4	16.4	22.6	2.6	35.2	134.7
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +12.9%

ORL +28.9%

NOH -0.5%

ORL +8.3%

ORL +0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NOH	ORL	NBA	NOH	ORL	NBA
this game	17.3	13.5	15.5	101.1	103.2	104.0
season	16.5	14.3		97.7	102.9
opponent	15.5	15.7		105.1	105.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NOH	16.0	16.2	19.9	17.6	17.3
ORL	12.1	12.1	15.3	15.1	13.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Orleans Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
P.J. Brown	40	40	0.19	-0.69	0.87	-0.05	8	-11	19	15.9	18.3	-2.37	12.7	14.1	-1.34
Jackson Vroman	8	7	0.17	-0.67	0.84	-0.04	7	-10	17	20.0	17.0	2.95	16.1	13.3	2.83
George Lynch	44	44	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.18	4	-7	11	16.7	17.8	-1.13	11.9	14.9	-2.99
Maciej Lampe	25	26	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	0.08	-7	4	-11	19.8	16.4	3.47	14.8	13.0	1.73
J.R. Smith	66	67	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.31	6	-9	15	17.4	17.0	0.37	13.5	13.6	-0.15
Casey Jacobsen	51	52	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.09	-5	2	-7	17.5	17.0	0.55	13.7	13.2	0.51
Bostjan Nachbar	50	51	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.25	-7	4	-11	17.7	16.8	0.95	14.6	12.2	2.42
Rodney Rogers	70	71	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.37	-5	2	-7	17.1	17.9	-0.81	13.2	14.5	-1.27
Dan Dickau	68	68	-0.62	0.12	-0.74	-0.41	-7	4	-11	17.1	17.9	-0.85	13.6	13.3	0.24
Chris Andersen	43	44	-0.71	0.21	-0.91	-0.44	-9	6	-15	16.9	17.6	-0.73	13.6	13.5	0.09

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Doug Christie	60	60	0.64	-0.14	0.78	0.58	2	1	1	13.0	14.5	-1.53	16.9	17.9	-0.99
Steve Francis	76	75	0.64	-0.14	0.77	0.34	10	-7	17	13.4	13.8	-0.39	17.2	17.8	-0.66
Dwight Howard	63	61	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.59	-4	7	-11	13.6	13.4	0.15	16.7	18.5	-1.88
Hedo Turkoglu	52	52	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.16	10	-7	17	14.3	12.5	1.76	17.5	17.1	0.36
Kelvin Cato	63	61	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.50	-3	6	-9	13.6	13.3	0.34	16.7	18.4	-1.73
Tony Battie	31	32	0.09	0.41	-0.31	-0.08	6	-3	9	13.3	13.6	-0.34	18.4	16.7	1.73
Pat Garrity	31	32	0.03	0.47	-0.45	-0.18	7	-4	11	13.4	13.6	-0.15	18.5	16.7	1.88
Grant Hill	64	61	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.16	-6	9	-15	13.0	14.7	-1.78	17.2	17.5	-0.30
DeShawn Stevenson	23	23	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	-0.04	0	3	-3	14.2	13.3	0.92	17.6	17.2	0.41
Jameer Nelson	7	8	-0.17	0.67	-0.84	0.04	-7	10	-17	16.1	13.3	2.83	20.0	17.0	2.95

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.46,0.38,0.32,0.33,0.35,0.37,0.37,0.44,0.5,0.53,0.58,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.58,0.55,0.58,0.67,0.77,0.71,0.72,0.73,0.87,0.89,0.78,0.81,0.75,0.67,0.58,0.53,0.53,0.46,0.76,0.85,0.97,0.92,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 98, LAC 101	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.46,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.43,0.38,0.42,0.46,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.58,0.53,0.56,0.49,0.49,0.58,0.58,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.58,0.55,0.59,0.71,0.73,0.74,0.71,0.81,0.78,0.67,0.67,0.58,0.53,0.54,0.47,0.62,0.78,0.94,0.9,1	91.8%
HOU 94, UTA 101	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.4,0.38,0.37,0.4,0.39,0.41,0.38,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.44,0.49,0.47,0.39,0.48,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.63,0.67,0.74,0.8,0.81,0.89,0.91,0.85,0.78,0.81,0.86,0.79,0.77,0.82,0.59,0.6,0.75,0.83,0.96,0.96,1	91.7%
NYK 81, MIA 87	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.37,0.37,0.36,0.33,0.37,0.32,0.38,0.43,0.4,0.45,0.42,0.47,0.46,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.67,0.58,0.6,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.68,0.74,0.72,0.73,0.78,0.75,0.66,0.7,0.59,0.58,0.72,0.6,0.54,0.77,0.86,0.9,0.9,0.96,1	91.5%