NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New York Knicks	81		Excitement	5.7 [663]		MVP	Dan Majerle (MIA): +24.4%
Miami Heat	87		Comeback	2.1 [622]		LVP	Latrell Sprewell (NYK): -16.9%

New York Knicks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Charlie Ward	0.09	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.06	0.02	-0.01	9	67%	0.11	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Patrick Ewing	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03	0.04	-0.03	-0.02	12	57%	0.03	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Chris Childs	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02	0.04	0.00	0.02	3	83%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Larry Johnson	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.01	0.00	9	56%	0.07	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Chris Dudley	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kurt Thomas	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Camby	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.06	0.03	-0.01	6	17%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Allan Houston	-0.06	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.01	10	50%	0.01	2	-0.07	4	100%	0.02
Latrell Sprewell	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.08,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.17	-0.06	-0.10	0.00	25	44%	-0.06	2	-0.11	4	50%	-0.03

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dan Majerle	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.16,0.24,0.24	0.24	0.11	0.12	-0.01	7	84%	0.24	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.01
Tim Hardaway	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.02	-0.01	11	52%	0.06	1	-0.01	1	100%	0.01
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.02	0.00	2	75%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.03	-0.00	5	60%	0.07	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Otis Thorpe	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Clar. Weatherspoon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	-0.00	6	50%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Mashburn	0,0,0,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	-0.00	15	55%	0.06	5	-0.14	8	87%	0.03
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.14	0.00	-0.04	17	40%	-0.03	2	-0.06	11	73%	0.00
P.J. Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.10	-0.06	-0.01	10	23%	-0.15	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.0	2.8	30.2	19.6	25.2	2.4	40.5	148.6
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +5.0%

MIA +20.5%

MIA +18.3%

NYK -1.3%

MIA +7.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NYK	MIA	NBA	NYK	MIA	NBA
this game	16.9	17.8	15.2	98.8	103.6	101.7
season	16.1	15.7		100.0	101.2
opponent	15.9	15.8		98.2	98.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NYK	16.2	18.1	16.4	17.1	16.9
MIA	18.0	18.8	16.3	18.0	17.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New York Knicks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Dudley	0	1	0.01	-0.51	0.52	0.01	0	-6	6	0.0	16.9	-16.91	23.0	17.7	5.29
Kurt Thomas	16	16	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	0.04	-3	-3	0	19.7	16.2	3.52	17.8	17.8	0.05
Charlie Ward	57	58	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	-0.18	4	-10	14	16.1	18.8	-2.65	16.8	19.8	-3.00
Larry Johnson	65	65	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.27	5	-11	16	16.9	16.9	0.04	19.2	12.8	6.37
Patrick Ewing	59	61	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.32	2	-8	10	16.2	18.8	-2.66	17.5	18.4	-0.91
Chris Childs	28	30	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.10	-11	5	-16	17.4	16.7	0.67	17.3	18.0	-0.69
Marcus Camby	36	39	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.05	-14	8	-22	19.2	15.1	4.06	17.6	17.9	-0.25
Latrell Sprewell	76	77	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.35	-4	-2	-2	16.7	20.0	-3.33	17.4	22.4	-5.08
Allan Houston	73	73	-0.66	0.16	-0.82	-0.40	-9	3	-12	16.5	20.4	-3.96	18.1	15.9	2.15

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jamal Mashburn	76	76	0.69	-0.19	0.89	0.34	12	-6	18	17.7	18.0	-0.25	16.6	21.0	-4.41
Anthony Carter	46	45	0.67	-0.17	0.84	0.17	17	-11	28	18.0	17.4	0.60	18.1	15.4	2.70
P.J. Brown	68	66	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.34	0	6	-6	17.3	19.9	-2.67	16.8	17.2	-0.42
Alonzo Mourning	62	65	0.32	0.18	0.13	0.32	0	6	-6	18.7	15.1	3.57	18.0	12.6	5.38
Bruce Bowen	33	30	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.04	6	0	6	15.8	19.1	-3.32	15.2	17.9	-2.70
Dan Majerle	60	59	0.20	0.30	-0.09	0.26	-2	8	-10	17.6	18.2	-0.61	16.9	16.8	0.12
Clar. Weatherspoon	30	26	0.13	0.37	-0.25	-0.02	5	1	4	19.1	17.1	2.01	17.8	16.5	1.36
Otis Thorpe	7	6	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.04	2	4	-2	20.1	17.6	2.58	14.0	17.1	-3.14
Tim Hardaway	38	37	-0.17	0.67	-0.84	0.12	-10	16	-26	17.4	18.0	-0.60	15.4	18.1	-2.70

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.37,0.37,0.36,0.33,0.37,0.32,0.38,0.43,0.4,0.45,0.42,0.47,0.46,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.67,0.58,0.6,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.68,0.74,0.72,0.73,0.78,0.75,0.66,0.7,0.59,0.58,0.72,0.6,0.54,0.77,0.86,0.9,0.9,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 81, DET 93	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.41,0.39,0.37,0.38,0.36,0.34,0.37,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.47,0.54,0.54,0.53,0.52,0.54,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.59,0.62,0.7,0.81,0.72,0.7,0.7,0.66,0.52,0.65,0.53,0.65,0.78,0.86,0.93,0.98,1,1	93.3%
MEM 109, ATL 112	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.42,0.44,0.47,0.45,0.39,0.39,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.46,0.44,0.46,0.45,0.49,0.56,0.46,0.46,0.48,0.46,0.54,0.49,0.67,0.66,0.63,0.61,0.67,0.67,0.77,0.75,0.72,0.73,0.74,0.85,0.87,0.74,0.67,0.71,0.72,0.74,0.65,0.73,0.75,0.96,0.97,0.95,1	92.9%
IND 87, MIA 94	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.41,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.35,0.42,0.51,0.58,0.53,0.56,0.59,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.58,0.54,0.69,0.67,0.61,0.67,0.71,0.75,0.66,0.63,0.6,0.68,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.67,0.73,0.59,0.53,0.67,0.86,0.93,0.96,1,1	92.8%